TIPP Tracking Day 19 – Trump Holds A One-Point Lead As Race Coasts Toward Election Day

With just three days to go, Trump’s got a slim 49% to 48% lead over Harris as undecideds lock in their final choices. Pollster Mayur sees a steady glide into Election Day, with the numbers likely to hover between Harris +1 and Trump +2. The latest release of the tracking survey of 1,249 likely voters, conducted from October 29 to October 31, has a margin of ±2.7 points and shows a tight and steady race, each candidate setting up for a smooth, close landing. Distinct patterns by age, race, and region highlight a polarized electorate, and voter turnout among key demographics will determine the outcome. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.

Multi-Candidate Results

When third-party candidates are added to the mix, Trump leads Harris, 48.5% to 47.8%, third-party candidates barely register, with West at 1.2% and Stein at 0.5%, leaving 1.2% undecided.

ICYMI: Latest Win Probabilities – November 1

Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:

Fortune on 2020 election results
Washington Post on 2020 election results

2016 Presidential Election:

As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.

Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016

"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill

"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today

"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor

"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily

"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)

"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)

"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite