Former President Donald Trump overtakes Vice President Kamala Harris and now enjoys a two-point lead, 49% to 47%, in the TIPP tracking poll. The data from the seventh release of the 23-day TIPP tracking poll shows the underlying change in the momentum. Recognized by The Washington Post in 2020 as the most accurate national presidential poll, TIPP continues to bring you the latest insights on the race.
Exclusive Insights For Our Subscribers
Here’s a glimpse of the valuable insights our paid subscribers receive daily from the 2024 National Presidential Tracking Poll. Stay informed and ahead of the curve—subscribe today to access these timely updates.
Exclusive Insight: Campaigns Must Strategize For Diverse Voter Preferences
Our proprietary data reveals critical insights into how voters are approaching this election. A notable 15% have already cast their ballots—11% by mail and 4% by using secure drop-off locations. Looking ahead, another 14% plan to vote by mail, and another 12% intend to drop off their ballots before election day. Most significantly, over half—51%—plan to vote in person or drop off their ballots on election day. These findings underscore the need for campaigns to prepare for various voting methods.
Key Takeaway: Headwind – Better Off/Worse Off
A growing sense of economic dissatisfaction looms large. The TIPP Tracking Poll shows that 53% of Americans feel worse off now compared to their situation pre-COVID. Democrats are the most optimistic, with 51% saying they’re better off, but 68% of Republicans report being worse off. Independents largely mirror the national mood, with 55% feeling the pain. This dissatisfaction is a headwind for Harris, which Trump could exploit.
Key Takeaway: Nation’s Compass – Right Track/Wrong Track
A deep dissatisfaction with the country’s direction poses a serious challenge for the incumbents. The TIPP Poll shows that 66% of Americans are unhappy with the nation's path. Republicans (62%) and Independents (43%) express the highest levels of dissatisfaction, while even 40% of Democrats are discontent. With just 25 days left, this sentiment represents a significant hurdle for the incumbents.
For full access to detailed findings, demographic breakdowns, and key insights, subscribe to receive the complete report and enjoy 23 days of keeping you posted.
Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:
Fortune on 2020 election results
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2016 Presidential Election:
As noted by Fox News, the IBD/TIPP Poll was one of only two polls to predict President Trump's victory in 2016t, ours was the only national poll to show Trump ahead in a four-way race heading into Election Day 2016.
Media Comments on the IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll for Election 2016
"The gold standard going forward." — The Hill
"IBD/TIPP tracking poll was the only major national poll in November to give Trump the lead in a race including third-party candidates." — USA Today
"Investor's Business Daily was the best poll." — Bill O'Reilly, The O'Reilly Factor
"This will be the fourth presidential election in a row in which IBD/TIPP got it right." — Investor's Business Daily
"Mayur's firm Technometrica conducts the Investor's Business Daily Poll, which was rated the "most accurate" poll of the three prior elections. Make that four." — The Star-Ledger (NJ.com)
"Almost everybody got it wrong, except Mayur." — The Record (NorthJersey.com)
"IBD/TIPP Tracking turned out to be the most accurate pollster." — Mediaite
