Unemployment And Workforce Shrinkage In Republican And Democratic States

Unemployment And Workforce Shrinkage In Republican And Democratic States

tippinsights analyzes unemployment and workforce shrinkages in red and blue states.

Raghavan Mayur
Raghavan Mayur

tippinsights analysis shows that the overall unemployment rate in states led by Republican governors is lower than the overall unemployment rate in states led by Democratic governors.  We also show that shrinkage in the civilian workforce is much lower in Republican areas than in Democratic areas.

While the overall unemployment rate in the United States was 5.83 percent in May, the overall unemployment rate in Republican-controlled states was 5.06 percent, compared to 6.48 percent in Democratic-controlled states.

D.C. is included in our analysis.  Democratic governors govern 24 of the 51 states, while Republican governors govern 27.

One method for calculating an average unemployment rate is to take a numerical average of the unemployment rates in each state.  However, this approach does not take into account the size of the workforce in different states.  California, for example, has a much larger workforce than Vermont.  The outcomes and interpretations may be untrustworthy and unpredictable.

To calculate the overall Republican unemployment rate, we divide the total number of unemployed in the 27 Republican states by the total civilian workforce in the 27 Republican states.

Unemployment in Red States and Blue States TIPP Poll

The table below compares unemployment changes between May 2021 and March 2020, prior to the outbreak.

Changes In Unemployment Pre-Pandemic vs. May 2021 TIPP Poll
Data Sorted High to Low

Workforce Shrinkage

The workforce has shrunk by 2,064,407 people, or 1.27 percent, since the beginning of the pandemic in May 2020.  There are a variety of reasons for the workforce contraction.  Retirement, deciding to further one's education, caring for the elderly, disability, and relocation are common reasons. We use March 2020 data as our baseline for analysis.

In May, the workforce shrinkage was 1.72% in Democratic states, nearly a point more than in Republican states.

Civilian Workforce Shrinkage in Red and Blue States TIPP Poll
Workforce Shrinkage March 2020-May 2021
Sorted High to Low

While the data supports the claims, things aren't always that simple, especially during a pandemic. Factors such as pandemic progression, the demographic profile of states, and others may also be playing a role, making it difficult to isolate policy effectiveness conclusively.

TIPP Takes

China's Xi Tells Macron, Merkel, He Hopes To Expand Cooperation With Europe

China's Xi Tells Macron, Merkel, He Hopes To Expand Cooperation With Europe

In a three-way video call, Xi also expressed the hope that Europeans can play a more active role in international affairs, achieve strategic independence and offer a fair, transparent, and unbiased environment for Chinese companies.

In May, the European Parliament halted ratification of a new investment pact with China until Beijing lifts sanctions on EU politicians, deepening a dispute in Sino-European relations and denying EU companies greater access to China.

Merkel's office confirmed that the three leaders exchanged views on European Union-China relations.

"They also discussed international trade, climate protection, and biodiversity," her office added in a statement.

"The conversation also revolved around cooperation in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, global vaccine supply, and international and regional issues."

Egypt Agrees Deal To Release Ship That Blocked Suez Canal

Egypt Agrees Deal To Release Ship That Blocked Suez Canal

The megatanker retained by Egypt since it blocked the Suez Canal in March will be released.

Egypt retained the vessel - seeking compensation from Japanese firm Shoei Kisen Kaisha for lost canal revenues and the cost of salvaging it and for damage to the shipping lane that links Asia and Europe.

The Suez Canal Authority said that a ceremony would be held to mark the signing of an agreement with the owners and "the departure of the ship."

The statement did not disclose the amount of compensation.

According to the Suez Canal Authority, Egypt lost between €10 million and €12.5 million in revenues for each day the waterway was closed.

Initially, Egypt had sought hundreds of millions of dollars in compensation, but it later slashed its initial claim of $900 million to $550 million (€463 million).

Leaked Memo Raises Thai Concern About Sinovac Vaccine's Efficacy

Leaked Memo Raises Thai Concern About Sinovac Vaccine's Efficacy

A leaked health ministry document has prompted calls in Thailand for medical staff inoculated against COVID-19 to be given a booster of an mRNA vaccine after it included a comment that such a move could dent public confidence in Sinovac Biotech's vaccine.

The internal memo documented various opinions. It included a comment from an unnamed official who recommended authorities do not give a booster shot of Pfizer-BioNTech's vaccine to frontline health workers because such a move would be "admitting that the Sinovac vaccine is not effective."

Thailand has administered Sinovac's inactivated virus vaccine to most health workers, and its real-world study showed two doses were 95 percent effective in reducing mortality and severe symptoms. The study showed it was 71 percent to 91 percent effective in stopping infection with the Alpha variant.

The hashtag "Give Pfizer to medical personnel" was trending on Thai Twitter with more than 624,000 tweets.

World Health Organization experts found the Sinovac vaccine was efficacious in preventing COVID-19 in adults under 60, but some quality data on the risk of serious adverse effects was lacking.

Georgia: Tbilisi Pride Cancelled Amid Violent Protests

Georgia: Tbilisi Pride Cancelled Amid Violent Protests

LGBT activists in Georgia have canceled a gay rights event after far-right protesters stormed their office.

Journalists and activists were also attacked ahead of the planned march in the capital Tbilisi, local reports say.

"We cannot risk human lives and take to the streets, which are full of violent attackers," Tbilisi Pride announced.

The attacks have been condemned by several embassies, who have called for authorities to stop the violence.

Activists had organized five days of Pride events, but in a statement, Tbilisi Pride said local authorities had "not only failed to secure the safety of the queer community and our supporters, but actively hampered us from exercising the right of assembly" ahead of the planned march.


Sign in or become a tippinsights member to join the conversation.
Just enter your email below to get a log in link.