Venezuela On The Brink

Venezuelans went to vote last Sunday, hoping to unseat President Nicolas Maduro from the office that he has occupied for the past 11 years. But, their hopes were crushed when the incumbent was declared the winner and awarded a third, six-year term.

The loyal National Electoral Council has announced that President Maduro had won 5.15 million votes, while his opposition rival Edmundo Gonzalez polled 4.45 million. Opinion pollsters and independent exit polls claimed the results were implausible, with some citing 65% support for Gonzalez and a mere 14% to 31% backing for Maduro just days before the election.

Even before the first votes were cast, there were fears the election would be "stolen," unfair, or the results rigged. Earlier, doubts were cast on President Maduro's re-election in 2018, which also recorded the lowest voter turnout. With both parties claiming victory, Venezuelans are taking to the streets to protest in despair.

After taking over from President Hugo Chavez, President Maduro has brought the country's economy to its knees. Under the United Socialist Party of Venezuela, since 2007, the country boasting the world's biggest oil reserve has been reeling under six-digit hyperinflation for about four years. Caracas is grappling with sanctions imposed on the regime, and its oil industry is struggling to operate with outdated infrastructure and trade embargos. A third of the population is estimated to have left the country since he came to power in 2013.  

While these problems may seem far removed from U.S. shores, the Venezuelan election results do impact American politics and landscape. In the past decade, more than 7.8 million Venezuelans have fled the country. With President Maduro expected to stay in office until 2031, the exodus is expected to increase.

Some polls suggest a third of the 29.4 million citizens would like to emigrate. The people fleeing the socio-economic and political crisis are coming to other Latin American countries, but many consider America their final destination. According to some estimates, in 2023, more than 262,633 Venezuelans crossed into the U.S. compared to 189,520 in 2022.

However, it is not only the influx of illegal immigrants into the country that is a cause of concern. President Maduro's government has forged close ties with China, Iran, Russia, and Cuba. While these nations have hailed the incumbent's victory, other leaders have been skeptical.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that Washington had "serious concerns that the declared outcome does not reflect the will or the votes of the Venezuelan people." UK Foreign Office called for the "publication of full, detailed results to ensure that the outcome reflects the votes of the Venezuelan people." While Chilean President Gabriel Boric found the results "hard to believe." International criticism prompted Caracas to announce that it would recall its diplomatic personnel from seven South American countries, including Panama, Argentina, and Chile.

President Maduro claimed the result was "a triumph of peace and stability," even as the opposition leader, Maria Corina Machado, called on the armed forces to uphold the results of the elections. But, the military has long supported the President, and there are no signals of a shift in allegiance. In fact, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino issued a warning against repeating the terrible history of the previous elections when hundreds were killed in mass anti-government protests.

With Machado claiming that the opposition has 73.2% of the voting tallies from Sunday's election and evidence of a clear victory, the six-month window between the election and the inauguration could see a tense standoff. It is unlikely that Venezuelans will take the results lying down, and thousands are taking to the streets; neither is President Maduro likely to concede election defeat. Much was riding on ousting the President and ending the socialist rule. Freedom, fundamental human rights, economic and social prosperity, and hopes of reunifying separated families were all on the ballot and now seem farther from Venezuela's reach.