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Why Has The Prediction Markets Battle Reached The Supreme Court

The dispute gained momentum after the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that states can regulate prediction markets as sports betting

Photo by Anne Nygård / Unsplash

New Jersey has asked the U.S. Supreme Court to intervene in the growing legal fight over prediction markets, setting up the industry’s first potential case before the justices, according to CNN.

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The state argues platforms such as Kalshi are effectively operating unlicensed sportsbooks when offering sports contracts and should follow state gambling laws. The companies maintain that their products are financial derivatives regulated federally by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

The dispute gained momentum after the 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that states can regulate prediction markets as sports betting.

That conflicts with an earlier 3rd Circuit ruling that treated the contracts as federally regulated financial products. Nevada, Michigan and Washington have obtained court orders against Kalshi or its sports markets.

The industry has expanded rapidly, with Kalshi and Polymarket handling billions in weekly volume.

The Trump administration has generally supported federal oversight. President Donald Trump has backed efforts to prevent states from restricting the platforms.

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