Trump won Wisconsin in 2016 by 22,748 votes (0.77%), becoming the first Republican since Reagan's 1984 landslide to claim the state's ten electoral votes. However, he lost in 2020 by 20,682 votes (0.63%). Can he retake Wisconsin in 2024?
If the election were held today in a head-to-head matchup, Trump and Harris would be tied at 47% in the Badger state. When third-party candidates are added to the mix, Harris leads Trump by one point (46% to 45%), within the poll’s margin of error. Those results are from an American Greatness/TIPP Poll of 976 likely voters in Wisconsin taken last week. Before Biden stepped down, Trump was ahead of Biden in the RealClearPolitics average by 2.9 points, 46.2% to 43.3%.
Race Up For Grabs
Eight in ten voters (81%) in the state have made up their minds, while 19% are still weighing their options. Unsurprisingly, independents (29%) have the largest share of those yet to decide. In comparison, those affiliated with the Democratic Party (87%) and the GOP (84%) have the highest percentages of voters who have already made firm decisions.
With such a large share of persuadable voters, the state may revert to the Biden-Trump 2024 configuration as voters learn more about Kamala Harris, who is far to the left of Biden and more liberal than Bernie Sanders. Further, it will be hard for Harris to detangle herself from Biden’s record on economy and immigration, the two top issues for the 2024 election.
Wisconsin Voters Are Hurting
The data does not bode well for incumbents. Nearly two-thirds (60%) of Wisconsin voters say their situation is worse than it was four years ago. This sentiment is shared by Republicans (79%) and independents (61%). The exception is among Democrats; 53% feel better off, while 39% do not.
Wisconsin Voter Priorities
What are Wisconsin voters' priorities just 80+ days before the November election?
Fifty-two percent identified the economy as the country's most important issue, followed by immigration and border security at 36 percent and abortion at 23%. The poll asked participants, "What are the top three issues facing the country?"
Priorities varied along party and ideological lines.
For Democrats, the top issues are the economy (40%), abortion (39%), health care (30%), gun violence/gun control (27%), and climate change (26%).
Republicans, on the other hand, prioritized immigration and border security (61%), the economy (60%), national debt/government spending (27%), health care (18%), and crime (15%).
Independents shared some concerns with Republicans and others with Democrats, with their top issues being the economy (54%), immigration and border security (32%), national debt and federal government spending (26%), threats to democracy (19%), and abortion (18%).
Top Economic Issues
Inflation (56%), food prices (47%), and people’s ability to pay their bills (26%) are the top three economic issues facing Wisconsin voters. Gasoline prices (23%), home affordability (23%), and government spending (20%) come next, reflecting a broad spectrum of concerns.
From a list of 21 economy-related issues, the survey respondents picked their top three concerns.
Economy
We asked Wisconsin voters whom they would trust on eight key issues regardless of whom they support. Trump beats Harris on most of the issues among all voters and has an edge among independents.
Trump beats Harris 49% to 44% on the economy. With independents, Trump is ahead by three points, 43% to 40%.
Bidenomics is Kamalanomics, responsible for 20% inflation since 2021, an annualized rate of 5.6%. The poll was taken before Harris announced her economic policies, and we anticipate the five-point gap to widen in the coming days as Wisconsin voters understand the follies of Harris’s Soviet-era economic policies like price controls.
Cutting Spending/Lowering Debt
Under Biden-Harris, the federal debt has increased by $7.4 trillion. The national debt recently crossed $35 trillion, according to the Debt to the Penny dataset, which the Treasury updates daily. For the current fiscal year, which began in October 2023, the U.S. is expected to pay over $1 trillion in interest, more than the U.S. defense budget.
Most Americans are concerned about the sustainability of this trajectory. They want the Federal government to cut spending and reduce debt. As noted earlier, Wisconsin voters rank debt as the #5 issue. Trump leads Harris 47% to 40% on cutting spending, with a three-point advantage among independents.
Along the same lines, Trump holds a five-point advantage in lowering the debt, with 45% preferring him compared to 40% for Harris.
Reducing Taxes
Trump has a four-point advantage on the issue of reducing taxes overall and three-points with independents.
Immigration
Wisconsin voters consider immigration the nation's second most important issue, at 36%, following the economy, which garnered 52%.
Biden and Harris have deliberately neglected the influx of migrants through the southern border, and most Americans attribute the crisis to his weak immigration policies.
Nearly two-thirds want the U.S. to complete the wall. The poll asked Wisconsin voters: To what extent do you agree or disagree with the statement? The U.S. must complete/expand walls along the U.S.-Mexico border. Here’s the tally of responses.
- 44% Agree strongly
- 19% Agree somewhat
- 15% Disagree somewhat
- 16% Disagree strongly
- 5% Not sure
Regarding securing the border, Trump has an 18-point advantage over Harris, 55% to 37%. The gap widens to 22 points among independents, 53% to 31%.
Reducing Crime
Crime and immigration go hand in hand. Many attribute the increase in crime to the open border. Again, Trump does better than Harris, 47% to 43% overall and 41% to 40% with independents.
National Security
Regarding national security, Wisconsin voters trust Trump more than Harris by 50% to 42%. The advantage among independents is five points, 44% to 39%.
Foreign Policy
As we have noted before, Harris’s Achilles heel is foreign policy. For example, Harris recently could not find the time to attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's address to the U.S. Congress. Instead, she decided to attend the annual convention of a sorority in Indiana.
Our data reflects the fact that Wisconsin voters recognize her weakness. They trust Trump over Harris by 48% to 44%. Among independents, the advantage is 44% to 41%.
Tight Polling
In 2020, the RealClearPolitics average of polls for Wisconsin close to Election Day was Biden +6.7. However, Trump lost by only 0.77%. Polls significantly underestimated Trump’s performance. The chart below illustrates this discrepancy, allowing you to assess how the media pollsters performed.
When the RCP average showed Biden ahead by 6.7 points, he finished with a 0.7-point lead on election day. Applying the same logic to 2024, a reasonable conclusion is that if Harris is ahead by one point, the race must be much tighter today.
Inflation is at 20% during the incumbent’s tenure. Wisconsin voters' economic struggles, particularly rising food costs, are undeniable. The real sentiment of voters will be revealed when the ballots are cast.
In summary, Wisconsin is a battleground state where the outcome of the 2024 election hinges on various factors. While Trump and Harris are currently tied in a head-to-head matchup, the presence of persuadable voters and the key issues at play suggest that the winner is far from settled. Trump’s edge on economic issues, immigration, and national security, coupled with Harris’s challenges in detaching from Biden’s record, gives him a path to victory. As the initial relief and honeymoon period following Biden's withdrawal fades, voter perceptions of her policies will likely play a crucial role. In our opinion, Wisconsin remains up for grabs, and Trump has a good shot at retaking it in 2024.
Our performance in 2020 for accuracy as rated by Washington Post:
