Will Trump Tear Down Michigan’s Blue Wall in 2024?
Trump’s narrow 2016 victory in Michigan, where he won by just 10,704 votes (0.22%), marked the first time a Republican had claimed the state’s 16 electoral votes since George H. W. Bush in 1988. However, in 2020, he lost the state by 154,181 votes, or 2.78%.
The question now looms: Can he reclaim the Great Lakes State in 2024?
Historically, polls have often underestimated Trump’s performance in Michigan while overestimating that of his Democratic opponents. As baseball legend Yogi Berra famously said, "It ain't over till it's over." This adage holds especially true for the three tier-1 swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
A recent American Greatness/TIPP Poll of 741 likely voters in Michigan reveals a tight race: In a head-to-head matchup, Harris leads Trump by just two points, 48% to 46%. When third-party candidates are factored in, Harris’s lead narrows to a single point (46% to 45%), well within the poll’s margin of error. Before Biden stepped down, Trump held a 2.1-point lead over him in the RealClearPolitics average, 44.0% to 41.9%.
Race Up For Grabs
Three-fourths of Michigan voters (75%) have made up their minds, while 24% are still weighing their options. Unsurprisingly, independents (38%) have the largest share of those yet to decide. In comparison, those affiliated with the Democratic Party (87%) and the GOP (80%) have already made firm decisions.
With such a large share of persuadable voters, the state may revert to the Biden-Trump 2024 configuration as voters learn more about Kamala Harris, who is far to the left of Biden and more liberal than Bernie Sanders. Further, it will be hard for Harris to detangle herself from Biden’s record on economy and immigration, the two top issues for the 2024 election.
Michigan Voters Are Hurting
The data does not bode well for incumbents. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of Michigan voters say their situation is worse than it was four years ago. Republicans (82%) and independents (71%) share this sentiment. The exception is among Democrats; 50% feel better off, while 39% do not.
Michigan Voter Priorities
What are Michigan voters' priorities just 70+ days before the November election?
About half (49%) identified the economy as the country's most important issue, followed by immigration and border security at 36 percent and abortion at 23%.
The poll asked participants, "What are the top three issues facing the country?"
Priorities varied along party and ideological lines.
For Democrats, the top issues are abortion (40%), the economy (36%), gun violence/gun control (29), health care (21%), and climate change (21%).
Republicans, on the other hand, prioritized the economy (61%), immigration and border security (55%), national debt/government spending (21%), and crime (19%).
Michigan independents are closer to Republicans than Democrats, with their top issues being the economy (51%), immigration and border security (37%), national debt and federal government spending (19%), and health care (19%). Only a handful rated abortion (13%) and climate change (13%) as important.
Top Economic Issues
To delve deeper, the survey asked respondents to select their top three concerns from a list of 21 economy-related issues. The top economic concerns among Michigan voters are food prices (54%), inflation (54%), gasoline prices (26%), and the ability to pay bills (26%). Home affordability (25%) and government spending (17%) also rank high, reflecting a broad spectrum of worries.
Economy
We asked Michigan voters whom they would trust on eight key issues regardless of whom they support. Trump beats Harris on most issues and has an edge among independents.
Regarding the economy, Trump beats Harris 49% to 43%. With independents, Trump is ahead by twenty points, 53% to 33%.
Bidenomics is Kamalanomics, responsible for 20% inflation since 2021, an annualized rate of 5.6%. The poll was taken after Harris announced her economic policies. Notably, a similar TIPP Poll in Wisconsin, conducted before she announced price controls, showed Trump with a 5-point advantage on the economy overall and a 3-point lead among independents. In Michigan, the comparable statistics are a 6-point overall advantage and a 20-point lead among independents. Could this be the impact of the price controls announcement?
Cutting Spending/Lowering Debt
Under Biden-Harris, the federal debt has increased by $7.4 trillion. The national debt recently crossed $35 trillion, according to the Debt to the Penny dataset, which the Treasury updates daily. For the current fiscal year, which began in October 2023, the U.S. is expected to pay over $1 trillion in interest, more than the U.S. defense budget.
Most Americans are concerned about the sustainability of this trajectory. They want the Federal government to cut spending and reduce debt. As noted earlier, Michigan voters rank debt as the #6 issue. Trump leads Harris 45% to 41% on cutting spending, with a 15-point advantage among independents.
Along the same lines, Trump holds a three-point advantage in lowering the debt, with 45% preferring him compared to 42% for Harris. With independents, his advantage increases to 18 points—48% to 30%.
Reducing Taxes
Trump and Harris are tied at 45% on reducing taxes overall. Trump enjoys an 11-point margin with independents.
Immigration
Michigan voters consider immigration the nation's second most important issue, at 36%, following the economy, which garnered 49%.
Regarding securing the border, Trump has a 22-point advantage over Harris, 56% to 34%. The gap widens to 35 points among independents, 60% to 25%.
Reducing Crime
Many attribute the increase in crime to the open border and uncontrolled illegal immigration. Harris does better than Trump, 45% to 44% overall. However, Trump does better than Harris, 45% to 38% with independents.
National Security
Regarding national security, Michigan voters trust Trump more than Harris, 52% to 39%. His advantage among independents is 25 points, 55% to 30%.
Foreign Policy
As we have noted before, Harris’s Achilles heel is foreign policy. For instance, Harris recently could not find the time to attend Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's address to the U.S. Congress. Instead, she decided to attend the annual convention of a sorority in Indiana.
Our data reflects the fact that Michigan voters recognize her weakness. They trust Trump over Harris by 50% to 40%. Among independents, the percentage is 54% to 31%.
Trump's Consistent Perception Advantage
To understand grassroots sentiment and hidden voter dynamics, the TIPP Poll asked respondents in Michigan, Wisconsin, and nationwide: "To the best of your knowledge, if the presidential election were held today, who do you believe most of your neighbors would vote for?" The responses were strikingly similar across all three polls. Trump is perceived to have a strong and consistent base of support in both Michigan and Wisconsin, as well as nationally, compared to Kamala Harris. This consistent perception across key battleground states suggests that Trump is currently in a commanding position, potentially giving him a significant advantage.
Tight Polling
Historically, Trump has performed better than poll predictions, while Democratic party opponents have underperformed.
For example, in 2016, as shown in the chart below, the final RCP had Hillary Clinton winning Michigan by 3.4 percentage points. Trump won by a slender margin of 10,704 votes or 0.22%.
Similarly, in 2020, the final RCP average was Biden up by 4.2 points. Biden underperformed and won by 154,181 votes or 2.78%.
Applying the same logic to 2024, a reasonable conclusion is that the race must be even tighter today if Harris is ahead by just two points in the polls.
Under the current administration, inflation has soared to 20%, leaving Michigan voters grappling with rising food and gasoline prices. The true sentiment of the electorate will only be revealed when ballots are cast.
In summary, Michigan is poised to be a pivotal battleground in the 2024 election, with the outcome hinging on various factors. While Trump and Harris are currently locked in a tight race within a thin margin of error, the presence of undecided voters and Trump’s dominance on key issues like the economy, immigration, and national security suggest that the race is far from settled. Trump’s strong positioning on these crucial topics, combined with Harris’s challenges in distancing herself from Biden’s record, presents a viable path to victory for Trump. As voters scrutinize Harris’s policies more closely, Michigan could swing back into the Republican column. The race remains open, and Trump’s chances of reclaiming Michigan are significant.
The methodology statement and cross-tabs are available here.
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