The World Bank forecasts global commodity prices will rise 23% in 2026, driven by higher energy costs, conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to grain shipments across the Black Sea.
Energy prices are projected to increase 32%, while global oil supply could fall 5.2%, marking the steepest decline in four decades outside the 2020 global recession.
Metals prices are expected to rise 25%, fertilizer costs 14%, and food commodity prices could increase by nearly 18% cumulatively through 2027.
Further escalation of the Middle East conflict or adverse El Niño conditions could drive food prices 12% above current projections, intensifying concerns about global food security and economic stability.
Related Tweet:
The World Bank increased its price forecasts for commodities, citing disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East war and the threat to harvests from El Niño https://t.co/6BGPEb2U4J
— Bloomberg (@business) October 28, 2026
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