12 Charts Explain Why President Biden's Ratings Are On Life Support

12 Charts Explain Why President Biden's Ratings Are On Life Support

One-year anniversary report of President Biden's performance

tippinsights Editorial Board

As we approach the first anniversary of President Biden's inauguration, the IBD/TIPP Poll shows that Americans have lost faith in his ability to get things done. In both his handling of the pandemic and the economy, the President fails miserably.

Furthermore, his ambitious legislative agenda, driven by ultra-progressive aspirations, has crashed, with no hope of resuscitation.

Americans are also gobsmacked when an embattled President delivers a series of divisive speeches for which prominent Democrats are profusely apologizing.

The IBD/TIPP Presidential Leadership Index, a compact measure of the President's performance, slipped from 49.6 in December to 48.4 in January, a loss of 2.4%.

The Leadership Index by party reads:

  • 77.6 for Democrats,
  • 18.9 for Republicans, and
  • 34.8 for Independents

The Leadership Index fell 1.8 points, or 4.9 percent, among independents, while it fell 4.8 points, or 5.8 percent, among Democrats.  Republicans who were in the sub-20 levels at 14.3 in December increased by 4.6 points to 18.9, a 32.2 percent increase.  The increase appears large due to the low base levels.

chart 1

Presidential Leadership Index

Presidential job approval rating has been around since George Gallup introduced it in the late 1930s, and every pollster uses it.

On the other hand, TIPP went above and beyond two decades ago by innovating and developing the Presidential Leadership Index metric.  Our Presidential Leadership Index considers three factors: favorability, job approval, and Presidential Leadership.

We compute the favorability component based on the survey question, "Overall, is your opinion of Joe Biden generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?"

The basis for the index's job approval component is the question: In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as President, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?

The question, "How would you describe the leadership that Joe Biden is providing for the country?" forms the basis for the leadership component.

For the index and its components, a reading above 50.0 signals optimism, and below 50.0 indicates pessimism.

All three index components fell in January, but they are slightly better than their November lows.

  • The Favorability component dropped by 2.9%, falling from 51.1 in December to 49.6 in January.
  • The Approval component, a measure of how Joe Biden is handling his job as President, slipped 1.8%, from 50.1 in December to 49.2 this month.
  • The Leadership component declined 2.5%, from 47.6 in December to 46.4 in January.
chart 2

Comparison Of Presidents (2001-2022)

chart 3

Our comparison of the first reading of a President's term in February after the inauguration and the 12th reading in January the following year reveals the following.

  • Bush had the highest increase of 16.2 points in the aftermath of 9/11 during his first term.
  • Obama had the biggest decline in his first term dropping from 71.0 to 50.8, a 28% drop over 11 months.
  • Biden finishes slightly better than Obama with a 14.7 point or 23% decline.
  • Trump declined 9.6 points or 20%.
  • In their second term, Bush dropped 9.5 points or 18%, and Obama dropped 7.5 points or 15%.

Top Issues

The Coronavirus pandemic, economy, and immigration are the top three issues of concern for the 1,308 Americans who took part in our IBD/TIPP poll completed last week.

chart 4

Now, let's assess President Biden's performance in these critical areas.

Handling The Coronavirus

The share of  Americans who give him an A or B has fallen from 56% in April to 41% in January. 67% of Democrats give President Biden an A or B, while only 17% of Republicans and 31% of independents give him good grades.

Early December marked the start of the Omicron variant.  Between our December and January polls, his ratings slid among Democrats, edged up among Republicans, and remained unchanged among independents.

President Biden's vaccine mandates have been divisive.  Many Americans are quitting their jobs or facing layoffs because of the mandate, increasing the wage pressure and worsening inflation.  On Thursday, the United States Supreme Court, by a 6-3 vote, blocked the Biden administration's vaccine-or-test mandate for large private companies.

Today, the death toll from the coronavirus in the United States stands at 845,577, with 424,395 deaths occurring under President Trump and 421,182 deaths occurring under President Biden.  The number of lives lost under Biden could soon surpass those lost under Trump at the current death rate.

chart 5
chart 6

Handling of The Economy

President Biden is presiding over the worst inflation of the decade.  In the IBD/TIPP Poll, 86% of Americans are concerned about inflation.

President Biden's handling of the economy gets good grades only from 34% of Americans.

When it comes to the American economy, he seems to be losing favor within his party.  Among Democrats, the share who gives him a good grade has fallen from 82% in April to 60% in January.  This month, 76% of Republicans and 54% of independents give him a D or F. Independents have also been disillusioned.  They have ranged between 17% to 36% over the past nine months.

chart 7
chart 8

Handling Immigration

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reported173,620 encounters in November 2021, 164,753 in October, and 192,001 encounters in September along the Southwest Border.

Our data analysis shows that between February and November 2021, the number of encounters under President Biden's watch was 1,776,609, compared to 437,198 and 822,930 during the same period in 2020 and 2019, respectively -- this represents a 306 percent increase over 2020 and a 116 percent increase over 2019.

President Biden gets good grades from only 28% on the immigration issue. 49% of Democrats give him a good grade.  But,80% of Republicans and 52% of independents give him a D or F.

chart 9
chart 10

Overall Job Performance

Only 36% of those who took part in the survey give him good grades for his overall performance.  64% of Democrats give him good grades.  On the other hand, 76% of Republicans and 53% of independents give him failing grades.

The share of Democrats who give him an A or B dropped from 80% in April to 64% in January, a 16-point drop, and the share of independents who give him good grades has declined from 39% in April to 21% in January, an eighteen point slide.

chart 11
chart 12

President Biden needs to can his current speechwriters and get new talent.  His speech on Jan 6 and the recent speech in Georgia as he pushed voting rights legislation were copybook disasters.  In her WSJ article, Peggy Noonan says, "The speech itself was aggressive, intemperate, not only offensive but meant to offend." Even Senator Dick Durbin from Illinois, the No. 2 Senate Democrat, said President Biden may have gone "a little too far" with his rhetoric.

President Biden's problems are further accentuated by the lack of an experienced team.  For instance, he can't count on Vice President Harris for anything.  She comes across as too green or just simply unwilling and lacking empathy.  Her cackles are simply uncharacteristic of a leader of the nation.  She failed miserably to address the immigration crisis.

President Biden's transportation secretary has also been ineffective in addressing shipping bottlenecks and supply chain problems.

Every time he testifies in Congress, Dr. Fauci insults the intelligence of Americans.  He is argumentative and can't provide a simple definition of gain-of-function research.  By repeatedly obfuscating, even curious high school sophomores are perplexed about this term of art and why he makes such a big deal about it.  According to a recent TIPP Poll, 45 percent of Americans do not trust Dr. Fauci's advice on pandemic-related matters.

At this rate, President Biden is on track to trounce President Jimmy Carter as the worst modern President.  If President Biden wants to change the situation, he must first restructure his team.  The country urgently requires strong leadership.


📧
We welcome readers' letters via email. If your letter is published, you get to ask a question in the TIPP Poll for free.
Please email editor-tippinsights@technometrica.com

TIPP Takes

Geopolitics

N.Korea Tests Railway-Borne Missile In Latest Launch Amid Rising Tension With U.S.

On Friday, North Korea tested a railway-borne missile in its firing drills amid a U.S. push for fresh sanctions against the isolated state following its recent series of weapons tests.

Rail missile

South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff said two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) traveled about 430 km (267 miles) to a maximum altitude of 36 km (22 miles) after being launched eastward on the northwest coast of North Korea.

Since New Year's Day, North Korea has launched three ballistic missiles in an unusually fast sequence of weapons tests.

Cheong Seong-chang, director for North Korean studies at South Korea's Sejong Institute, said the test could be an "instant display of force" to protest against the U.S. sanctions push, noting that it was not planned unusually took place in the afternoon.


Russia-Ukraine: U.S. Warns Of 'False-Flag' Operation

Russia is plotting to stage acts of provocation to create a pretext to invade Ukraine, a U.S. official has said.

Russia

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Friday about what he said were Russia's plans.  "It has pre-positioned a group of operatives to conduct what we call a false-flag operation, an operation designed to look like an attack on them or Russian speaking people in Ukraine as an excuse to go in," he said.

Russia has dismissed the claims.  It comes after a week of US-Russian talks aimed at defusing tensions.  Ukraine on Friday accused Russia of being behind a cyber-attack on dozens of official websites.


Ukraine Hit With Cyberattack, A Tactic It "Expected" To Precede A "Full Invasion" By Russia

Ukrainian government servers were hit by a "massive cyberattack" overnight that saw government websites taken down, including the homepage for the Foreign Ministry, which temporarily displayed a message warning Ukraine's people to "be afraid and expect the worst."

cyberattacks

There was no claim of responsibility for the cyberattack, but Ukraine has blamed groups with links to the Russian government for similar previous sabotage.  On Friday, an NCS spokesperson told CBS News that President Biden had been briefed on the cyberattack but that the council had not yet determined who was behind the sabotage.

Recently, the U.S. has sent cyber teams to Ukraine to help advise the country's security services, multiple sources confirmed to CBS News.

But, from Ukraine's perspective, neither the risk of a military incursion nor Russia's efforts to destabilize the country via other means are likely to fade with the spring thaw.


EXCLUSIVE:  U.S. Bill Would Block Defense Contractors From Using Chinese Rare Earths

A bipartisan piece of legislation introduced in the U.S. Senate on Friday would force defense contractors to stop buying rare earths from China by 2026 and use the Pentagon to create a permanent stockpile of the strategic minerals.

Rareeartths

The bill, sponsored by Senators Tom Cotton, an Arkansas Republican, and Mark Kelly, an Arizona Democrat, is the latest in a string of U.S. legislation seeking to thwart China's near control over the sector.

The United States has only one rare earths mine and cannot process rare earth minerals.

"The bill, which the sponsors expect could be folded into Pentagon funding legislation later this year, offers no direct support for U.S. rare earths miners or processors.

Instead, it requires Pentagon contractors to stop using Chinese rare earths within four years, allowing waivers only in rare situations.


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