In the heat of the 2024 campaign, sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists warned that Donald Trump’s policies would make America’s inflation crisis worse.
The data today tell a different story.
Inflation, which surged above 9% at its peak during the Biden years, has now cooled to about 2.4%. Job growth has exceeded expectations, and paychecks are once again rising faster than prices. After years of affordability pressures, many families are finally beginning to see some relief.
There is nothing mysterious about it: when regulations are rolled back, and businesses are allowed to grow, investment rises, jobs expand, and workers’ paychecks get bigger.
Yet public confidence has not fully caught up with the improving numbers. Many Americans remain cautious, unsure whether recent progress will last.
Still, sentiment is starting to turn. The latest RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose again in February, driven largely by stronger confidence in personal finances. Americans may not yet be fully optimistic, but the direction is improving.
That shift matters politically.
Midterm elections are rarely decided by ideology alone. They usually turn on kitchen-table economics. Financial security remains the sine qua non of political success: when voters feel economically secure, the party in power tends to benefit. When families feel squeezed, they vote for change.
For President Trump and Republicans, the political challenge now is straightforward: ensure economic gains translate into improvements families feel in their daily lives at the grocery store, at the gas pump, and in monthly household budgets. They must also communicate that progress directly to voters, rather than rely on legacy media outlets that have often been slow to recognize improving economic conditions.
If inflation continues to ease and wages continue to rise, Republicans could head into the midterms with powerful momentum. If voters conclude the economy is working in their favor again, political outcomes may follow naturally.
Economic progress does not guarantee electoral success. But without it, success becomes much harder to achieve.
The coming months will show whether economic recovery turns into political advantage.
👉 Show & Tell 🔥 The Signals
I. Real Weekly Paychecks Rise After Prior Decline
Average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation, are now running about 2% higher than a year ago, reversing declines seen during the prior period when rising prices eroded wage gains.
II. Existing Home Sales Fall Despite Better Affordability
Existing home sales fell 8.4% in January from the prior month and were down from a year earlier, even as housing affordability improved slightly. Rising inventory and slower demand have cooled price growth.
III. Japanese Brands Top Reliability Rankings
Japanese carmakers again dominate vehicle reliability rankings, with Toyota, Subaru, and Lexus leading the latest survey. Tesla showed one of the biggest improvements, climbing several positions in the rankings.
The TIPP Stack
Handpicked articles from TIPP Insights & beyond
1. China’s Quiet Infiltration Of America—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
2. Why ARE The US And Israel Obsessed With Eliminating Iran’s Ballistic Missiles?—Larry C. Johnson, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
3. The Coming Constitutional Ice Age— Andrew P. Napolitano, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
4. MONUMENTAL: Trump Admin Unleashes American Energy With Key Regulatory Move— Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
5. Shut Up And Slide, Team USA—Simon Hankinson, The Daily Signal
6. Spy Fiction Masquerading As Fact—Daniel Pomerantz, TIPP Insights
7. The Turmoil At The Washington Post Does Not “Threaten” Democracy— William L. Anderson, Mises Wire
8. Democrats To ‘Disenfranchise Voters’ With Election Integrity Opposition, GOP Says— Pedro Rodriguez, The Daily Signal
9. Border Patrol Stops Large Human Smuggling Attempt In California—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
10. A Japanese Lesson For Troubled Britain—Daniel McCarthy, The Daily Signal
11. Homan Announces Major Update On Minnesota ICE Operation—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
12. Artificial Intelligence Is Here For Your Children—Tina Descovich, The Daily Signal
13. House Votes To Revoke Trump’s Tariff Power— George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
14. House Reps Try To Reconcile Farm And Oil Interests In E15 Talks— George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
15. $10 Billion For Crime Victims Missing—Lawmakers Call For DOJ To Fix Biden-Era Failure— Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal
16. Florida Becomes Only The Fourth State To Offer English-Only Driver’s License Exams— Erin Schniederjan, The Daily Signal
17. MAHA Could Hold The Key To Winning Midterms— Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
18. ‘That’s A Lie’: Minnesota AG Accused Of Enabling Fraud— Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
19. Judge Weighs In On War Department Censure Of Sen. Mark Kelly— Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal
20. Democrats Stand Firm On ICE Demands As FEMA, TSA, And Coast Guard Funding In A Lurch— Virginia Grace McKinnon, The Daily Signal
21. THUNE: DHS Shutdown Very Likely—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
22. Olaudah Equiano’s Manumission: Regulatory Barriers To Freedom— Joshua Mawhorter, Mises Wire
23. Economic Freedom In Contexts Of Crisis: An Austrian Analysis For 2026— Deborah Palma, Mises Wire
editor-tippinsights@technometrica.com
