In Washington, confidence is never in short supply. Democrats look at the political landscape and see a midterm election ripe for the taking. Republicans look at the same landscape and see an electorate drifting their way. They cannot both be right. The TIPP Poll suggests that neither of them is at this moment.
For two consecutive months, we have asked registered voters a simple question: which party do you prefer to control Congress after the midterm election? For two consecutive months, the answer has been the same, a statistical tie. In February, Democrats led by 2.9 points. In March, by 1.2 points. Both leads fall within the margin of error. In plain language, there is no lead. There is a dead heat, and it has set like concrete.
Start with the Democrats. Their number has not moved. Not a tenth of a point in a month: 45.4% in February, 45.5% in March. In a midterm cycle where the opposition party typically enjoys a natural advantage, standing still is not a strategy. It is a symptom. If Democratic support were going to surge, one might expect to see at least the first stirrings of it by now. There are none. The party appears to have found its ceiling, and it is not high enough to guarantee anything.
Now the Republicans. Their headline number did improve, from 42.5% to 44.2%, and the pool of undecided voters shrank from 12.2% to 10.3%. The arithmetic is suggestive: voters who were sitting on the fence appear to have come down on the Republican side. That looks like consolidation, and it may well be. But a gain of 1.7 points in a poll with a three-point margin of error is not something to hang bunting on. Republicans are closing, but they have not closed. And if their gains are coming from their own hesitant partisans finally coming home rather than from persuading anyone new, then the party has a reach problem that consolidation alone will not solve.
The voters who should worry both parties are the ones who remain undecided. One in ten registered voters still cannot say which party they prefer. In a race this tight, that is not a footnote. It is the whole ball game. Whoever wins them wins Congress. And right now, neither party has given them a compelling reason to commit.
The temptation in politics is always to read the tea leaves in your favor. Democrats will point out that they have led, however narrowly, for two months straight. Republicans will note that the gap is closing and the momentum, such as it is, belongs to them. Both claims contain a grain of truth. Neither amounts to a convincing argument.
The honest reading of the data is this: eight months before the midterm elections, the battle for Congress is wide open. No party has earned the right to feel comfortable. The Democrats cannot grow. The Republicans cannot overtake. And a tenth of the electorate is watching both sides and finding neither one persuasive enough to back.
That is not a position of strength for anyone. It is a starting gun. And neither party has started running yet.
Catch up on today’s highlights, handpicked by our News Editor at TIPP Insights.
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2. Why Oil Prices Jumped Above $100 Despite Record Reserve Release
3. Oil Market Turmoil Complicates Trump’s Iran Military Campaign
4. How Long Can Gulf States Absorb Iranian Attacks Without Entering The War?
5. Iran War Costs U.S. $11.3 Billion In First Week, Pentagon Briefing Says
6. Kim Jong Un Tests New Pistols With Daughter During Factory Visit
7. Oil Shock From Iran War Sparks New Debate Over EV Adoption
8. U.S. Sanctions Hit Companies Linked To North Korea Cyber Funding Network
9. How Escalating War In Iran Could Push Oil Prices Toward $200
10. Senate Passes Major Housing Bill With Investor Home Purchase Ban
11. Rising Oil Prices Prompt White House To Review Shipping Law
12. Speculation Grows Over Fate Of Iran’s Esmail Qaani—TIPP Quick Takes
13. G-7 Holds A Massive Strategic Oil Buffer—TIPP Quick Takes
14. Lithium Supply Is Dominated By Two Countries—TIPP Quick Takes
15. Saudi Pipeline Offers Oil Route Around Hormuz—TIPP Quick Takes
16. Protecting Shipping In The Strait Of Hormuz—TIPP Quick Takes
editor-tippinsights@technometrica.com
