We have finally come to Election Day when all pollsters, analysts, pundits, and editorial boards must step aside and let the American voter decide the country's future for the next four years.
The consensus on who will likely win tomorrow (if the results will be known by then) is that no one knows.
Battleground states point to a Trump win. For months, we have focused on the seven battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
The latest RealClearPolitics average shows Trump leading in five of these states, with Harris ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump has come back to maintain a lead in four of the five states that he lost to Biden—Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada. He carried North Carolina in both 2016 and 2020.
If Trump were to win all the states he did in 2020 (the possibility of which is remarkably high), his lead in those four battlegrounds would elect him as the 47th president. Basic electoral college math tells us why. The combined electoral votes for Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania add up to 52 electoral votes (Nevada: 6; Arizona: 11; Georgia: 16; Pennsylvania: 19). In 2020, Biden won 306 electoral college votes, with those 52 votes powering his victory, while Trump only won 232. Adding those 52 votes to the Trump column this time will put Trump at 284 votes, more than the 270 needed to win the presidency. Even losing Iowa (6 electoral college votes) is ok for Trump because 278 is still good enough.
Harris's Wrong Track numbers also indicate a Trump victory. Our TIPP Online Tracking Poll of 1,603 voters conducted between October 30 and November 1 showed that 63% of Americans are dissatisfied with the country's direction. The spread (difference) between those satisfied (34%) and those dissatisfied is 29 points. If we examine historical trends, these numbers are ominous for the Harris campaign.
Wrong Track analysis. The Roper Center at Cornell University has analyzed right track/wrong track numbers going back to 1980.
Americans defeated the incumbent in each reelection instance when the wrong track number was above 57%. The 57% was recorded in 2000, when the United States Supreme Court stopped a statewide count in Florida on December 12, nearly 34 days after Election Day. Bush defeated Gore by 537 votes, clinched Florida, and became president by the closest margin in American history. Gore won the popular vote.
In the other four cases, the wrong track numbers were higher, and the impact more pronounced.
In 1980 (79% wrong track for Carter), Ronald Reagan crushed his opponent to win two consecutive terms.
In 1992 (76% wrong track for George HW Bush), Bill Clinton eked out a victory with the help of Ross Perot, who won 19% of the popular vote but no state. Clinton beat Bush, with a 370-168 lopsided win.
In 2008 (75% wrong track), Obama handily defeated McCain/Palin, trying to run a disastrous Bush 43 third term. Everything was terrible for the GOP that year. Bush had messed up in Iraq and Afghanistan, with Osama Bin Laden still at large after seven years of war. The subprime mortgage crisis tanked the American economy to lows not seen since the 1929 Great Depression. McCain was a poor candidate, and Palin was worse. Obama was making history, and the election was over within a few hours of the results coming in.
In 2016, Obama's wrong track numbers were 62%, and Hillary, running for Obama's third term, fell significantly short, losing to Trump.
To be sure, 2024 is technically not a reelection with Biden not being on the ticket, and Harris is trying hard to drive home that message through her "Turn the page" ads. Americans, however, know that Harris is running for Biden's second term. She is traveling around the country as the Vice President, with all the trappings of that high office. In addition, Harris has struggled to distance herself from Biden's policies, repeatedly saying she wouldn't have done anything different from him. So, a 63% wrong track number can be lethal.
The RealClearPolitics average of the wrong track number across nine different pollsters is remarkably consistent with our TIPP poll, also showing a wrong track number of 63%.
Analysis of the Spread. Looking at just the wrong track numbers is inconclusive. To draw a fuller picture, we should examine The Spread - the difference between positive and negative among people directly answering the question about the country's direction.
Our TIPP spread is more generous to Harris at -29%, meaning it is the difference between those who say they are satisfied (34%) and those not satisfied (63%). The RCP spread, however, is more problematic for Harris at -36.4%. [The nearly seven-point difference between TIPP and RCP spreads can be traced to people ignoring our wrong track question altogether or answering "Not Sure."]
Historically, any spread worse than 30 points has been a disaster for the incumbent.
In 2016, the spread for Hillary was -31%. Trump ended up winning the Electoral College 304-227.
In 1980, the spread for Carter was -59%. Reagan won 489 Electoral College votes.
In 2008, the spread for McCain running for Bush 43's third term was -65%. Obama won 365 EC votes.
The only anomaly was Gore, in 2000, at just an 18-point spread. As we said before, this was Florida's "hanging chad," "dimpled chad," and "butterfly ballot" nonsense, so it is safe to ignore this outlier.
While the above analysis predicts a Trump victory, we must caveat it with this statement. While there's a strong correlation between right/wrong track polls and election outcomes, a strong correlation alone does not statistically mean that an election outcome can be caused by it. In other words, correlation does not equate to causation. Other factors (likeability, age, Trump's policy accomplishments balanced against his loose rhetoric, Harris's never-ending flip-flops, Harris's screaming personality expressing faux rage at anything Trump) are all in the stew.
No matter who wins, there’s one sure winner: The American voter who can finally leave all the nastiness behind and return to living life.
ICYMI – Featured Reads From TippInsights.com
TIPP Tracking Day 23: Trump Holds Slim 0.3-Point Lead Over Harris In Final Poll - TIPP Insights
Electoral Showdown 2024: Latest Win Probabilities – November 5 - TIPP Insights
Harris World Should Keep Panicking. She’s Floundering In Only Election Metric That Matters - Mary Rooke, DCNF
Trump’s Podcast Strategy Has Him Well Positioned To Win - Bradley Devlin, The Daily Signal
Biden-Harris Policies Left American Workers In The Lurch - J.D. Foster, DCNF
Zynga Founder Mark Pincus Joins More Silicon Valley Billionaires In Supporting Trump - Robert McGreevy, DCNF
Why Do We Even Have Elections? Why Don’t We Just Let The Media Choose? - Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
5 Key Bellwethers To Watch On Election Day - Reagan Reese, DCNF
Restoring Faith In Our Elections Starts With Eradicating Senseless Democrat Rules - Mike Davis, DCNF
Voters Concerned About Energy Security Have A Choice To Make - David Blackmon, DCNF
China’s 2 EV Battery Plants In Michigan Spark National Security Concerns - Olivia Pero, The Daily Signal
‘Rapid Expansion’: China’s Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Is Way Bigger Than The Pentagon Previously Thought - Jake Smith, DCNF
Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Trust The Government’s Rosy New Economic Figures - Gage Klipper, DCNF
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Middle East: Israel Officially Cuts Ties With UNWRA - D.W.
Israel has officially informed the UN it is cutting ties with the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA), the main UN agency helping Palestinians in the Middle East, including in Gaza.
"Despite the overwhelming evidence we submitted to the UN that substantiate Hamas' infiltration of UNRWA, the UN did nothing to rectify the situation," Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Danon posted on his official X account. UNRWA said in response that Israel's decision could cause the "collapse" of the humanitarian aid efforts in Gaza.
2. Ukraine Confirms 1st Engagement With N. Korea Troops: S. Korea Media - Kyodo News
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov in an interview said that a "small-scale" engagement had taken place, without detailing when and where the fighting took place.
He said it could be officially considered the beginning of North Korea's participation in Russia's war against Ukraine, according to the report. But the fighting was not a systematically organized level of engagement with all forces mobilized, Umerov said.
3. Germany's Baerbock In Kyiv As Russia Pounds Ukraine's Infrastructure - RFE/RL
German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock met with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv where she arrived in a show of support for Ukraine as Russia's invasion of Ukraine nears the 1,000-day mark.
Baerbock's visit comes as Ukrainians face the prospect of a third winter of war amid energy shortages and the reported arrival of North Korean troops to fight on Russia's side.
4. Indonesia, Russia Commence Joint Naval Drills - AFP
Indonesia and Russia kicked off their first joint naval exercise on Monday, as the Southeast Asian archipelago's new leader seeks to boost ties with Moscow.
The region's biggest economy maintains a neutral foreign policy, refusing to take sides in the Ukraine conflict or in great power competition between Washington and Beijing. However, newly inaugurated Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto has pledged to be bolder on the world stage and in July visited Moscow for talks with Vladimir Putin.
5. Russian Rocket Takes Iranian Satellites Into Orbit As Ties Grow Closer - Al Jazeera
Russia’s Roscosmos space agency said that two Russian Ionosfera-M satellites – designed to monitor the space weather around Earth – and 53 small satellites, including two from Iran, were placed into orbit successfully by the Soyuz-2.1 spacecraft.
Russia’s satellite launches follow a series of failed launches suffered by Iran’s civilian space program in recent years, including five failed launches in a row for the Simorgh program, a satellite-carrying rocket.
6. China's Premier Says Policies Are Buoying Economy, Warns Against Tariffs - Nikkei Asia
Premier Li Qiang said at a trade fair that incremental policies are helping to revive China's economy while insisting that all countries must share a commitment to openness.
In his opening speech at the China International Import Expo (CIIE) in Shanghai, Li said that economic stimulus measures introduced since late September have been "well received."
7. China Sees Sharp Drop In Marriages Amid Economic Downturn - RFA
China registered 4.747 million marriages in the three quarters ending Sept. 30, a drop of 943,000 year-on-year.
First marriages have plummeted by nearly 56% over the past nine years, according to the 2023 China Statistical Yearbook. The trend is contributing to a sharp decline in birth-rates amid a shrinking, aging population. Young people are increasingly avoiding marriage, having children and buying a home amid a tanking economy and rampant youth unemployment.
8. U.S. EV Policy Yet To Help Pilbara's Battery Chemical Venture: CEO - Nikkei Asia
A major U.S. policy aimed at shifting electric vehicle supply chains away from China has yet to benefit an Australia-South Korea venture producing key battery chemical lithium hydroxide, Pilbara Minerals' chief told Nikkei Asia.
The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) offers consumers tax breaks of up to $7,000 on EVs that meet certain sourcing criteria, which involve avoiding Chinese inputs.
9. Mexico 'Anxious' On Eve Of U.S. Presidential Election - UPI
While considering the implications of a Trump presidency, Mexicans are also trying to navigate how a new U.S. president will work with newly elected Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, her term just a month old.
Illegal border crossings spiked to record levels under President Joe Biden, averaging 2 million per year from 2021 to 2023. The migrants arrived in every state in the country, overwhelming cities such as New York, Chicago and Denver as newcomers seek shelter and aid.
10. North Korea Launches Short-Range Missiles Ahead Of U.S. Election - Kyodo News
At least seven short-range missiles flew a distance of about 250 miles with an altitude of up to about 60 miles after they were fired from North Korea's west coast, the Japanese ministry said.
Pyongyang apparently aimed to demonstrate an improvement in its military capabilities on the occasion of the U.S. presidential election, with the timing of the launch also seen as meant to show its opposition to a joint exercise by the United States, South Korea and Japan involving a U.S. B-1B strategic bomber on Sunday.
11. Carbon Markets Could Boost Climate Action In Least Developed Countries - UN News
While carbon markets have played a limited role in boosting sustainable development for the world's least developed economies, a new report from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) shows that stronger domestic laws, regulations, and monitoring could pay big dividends.
UNCTAD's Least Developed Countries Report 2024 highlighted that the group of 45 least developed countries (LDCs) could use carbon market projects to enhance climate action by offsetting the buyers' emissions at improved rates which will allow more investment.
12. Pacific Push Sees UN Launch First Nuclear War Impact Study In 35 Years - RFA
The United Nations General Assembly has voted overwhelmingly in favor of an independent scientific panel to report on the physical and societal consequences of nuclear war, the first such study in more than three decades.
The legacy of nuclear testing is still being felt across the Pacific, notably in Micronesia but particularly in the Marshall Islands and French Polynesia. Fiji, Kiribati, Palau, Samoa, and Tonga all sponsored the resolution, which New Zealand and Ireland led.
13. Two Additional Cases Of New Mpox Strain Diagnosed In Britain - UPI Health
The two new cases are household contacts of the first case, an unidentified person who had recently traveled to African nations, which have been experiencing community spread of the Clade Ib mpox strain.
With the confirmation, Britain now has three confirmed cases of the Clade Ib mpox strain, which is not the same virus responsible for Britain's mpox outbreak of 2022.
14. Text-Messaging Program Helps Parents Prevent Obesity In Young Children - HealthDay News
Kids had a healthier weight-for-height growth curve during their first two years if parents were offered electronic feedback on feeding habits, playtime and exercise, researchers found.
All of the parents in the study received the in-clinic counseling, but half also received personalized, interactive text messages from a fully automated system. By age 2, only 7% of the text-message group's children were obese, compared with nearly 13% of the clinic-only group – a 45% relative reduction, researchers calculated.
