In the wake of President Joe Biden's not-so-surprising decision to drop out of the 2024 presidential race, two big questions still loom: Did the big media intentionally underplay his growing mental and physical issues? And should Biden be allowed to finish out his term? A majority of voters answer with a resounding "yes" to the first, and half say "yes" to the second, according to July's I&I/TIPP Poll.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll queried 1,389 registered voters from June 26-28, a period that included Biden's disastrous debate performance, but just before a chorus of both the media and establishment Democrats began to call for him to resign.
Biden's decision to halt his campaign for a second term now calls attention to the media's role in downplaying his obvious mental decline over the past 3 1/2 years. Biden's stumbling performance in the June 27 debate with Trump led to an abrupt reversal by the media, which only this month began aggressively questioning Biden's deteriorating condition.
A Media Coverup?
I&I/TIPP asked voters: "Do you agree or disagree that the mainstream press is covering up President Biden’s mental and physical problems because they fear it would help Trump?"
Among all those responding, 59% said they either agreed "strongly" (38%) or "somewhat" (21%). Just 31% disagreed, with 12% saying they disagreed "somewhat" and 19% saying they disagreed "strongly." Ten percent were "not sure."
The poll has a margin of error of +/-2.7 percentage points.
Once again, the two main parties appeared to inhabit separate universes of opinion, while independents and third parties existed somewhere in between.
Among Democrats, 37% agreed that the media has soft-pedaled Biden's age-related mental infirmities, while 53% disagreed and 10% weren't sure.
For Republicans, a sizable 85% agreed the media was covering up for Biden's mental issues, compared to just 11% who didn't agree. As for independents and third-party supporters, the comparable figures were 58% agreed vs. 28% disagreed.
So the bulk of Americans saw the media as complicit in hiding Biden's mental slide.
In recent weeks, the media turned against Biden, particularly after his poor debate performance against Trump and recent public remarks, including a tightly-scripted press conference where Biden again seemed to struggle to speak and clearly express his thoughts.
Should Biden Be Forced From Office?
Following the public revelations of Biden's frailty, factions within the Democratic Party, shocked at polls showing Trump beating Biden handily, worked behind the scenes to have him removed as the party's candidate in 2024 — by directly pressuring Biden leading up to the Democratic National Convention, and by threatening to deploy the 25th Amendment of the Constitution.
That amendment allows for the replacement of a president who "is unable to discharge the powers and duties" of the presidency by a vote of his Cabinet, or "principal officers of the executive departments."
The sitting president, after such a vote, is then replaced by the vice president, in this case, Kamala Harris.
With this possibility in mind, I&I/TIPP asked the following: "Given recent video evidence, do you think Biden’s cabinet should consider invoking the 25th Amendment to remove him from office?" The possible responses given were "yes," "no" and "not sure."
By 50% (yes) to 35% (no), Americans responded that they thought Biden should be removed from office and replaced by Harris. "Not sure" was the response of 15%.
Even among Democrats, nearly a third (30%) said Biden should be replaced by Harris, compared to a Dem majority of 54% who say he shouldn't be replaced. Republicans, not at all surprisingly, were far more favorable to the idea: 75% yes, vs. just 15% no. Independent voters again straddled the two main parties, with a strong plurality of 47% yes vs. 33% no.
In what would have augured certain political trouble for Biden if he hadn't dropped out of the race, the Northeast, Midwest, and South were identical in their "yes" responses at 52%; only the West, at 45%, was less than a majority.
In short, a majority or plurality of all four regions of the nation want Biden out, even if it meant replacing him with his untested vice president.
No Clear Path Forward
Given such dismal numbers, Biden had little choice but to drop out. Indeed, as a Wall Street Journal editorial headline last week said, "Democrats Prepare for the Biden Coup."
It came Sunday, after former political supporters and financial backers began to pull their support.
There's little doubt that Biden's own internal polling, and that of the Democratic Party, showed glaring weaknesses for him going forward. Perhaps the coup de grace came Sunday with a CBS News Poll showing Trump opening up a five-point lead nationally.
Both the media and Biden, and by extension the Democratic Party as well, dug themselves into a deep hole when it comes to their perceived dishonesty by American voters.
In the case of the big media, they've gone from vehemently defending Biden's mental acuity to climbing on the bandwagon to have him removed from office, either voluntarily or by the 25th Amendment.
Biden chose the former course, and immediately backed Harris to succeed him.
For Biden, his decision to quit the race and support Harris won't heal what now ails the Democratic Party, as some observers pointed out.
The timing couldn't be worse, wrote the National Review's Jeffrey Blehar: "In late July. After the primary. After the first debate. A month before the Democratic convention. With no agreed-upon successor, nobody vetted, nobody remotely acceptable to all factions of the Democratic Party. Party delegates are enraged, disunited, and confused. Protesters are out in the streets."
From here, there's no clear path forward for the Democrats. Party leaders mostly prefer a so-called open convention. With Biden out of the race, if no other candidate wins a majority of the delegates' votes on the first ballot, the convention becomes "open."
That means delegates would be free to vote for whomever they wish. After that, candidates could then politick and seek support from the delegates in subsequent rounds of voting.
Apart from erasing the votes of the 14 million or so Democrats who voted for Biden during the primaries, an open convention will also give Harris a tougher road to travel to gain the White House. It also opens up new possibilities that once seemed unlikely: Apart from Harris, how about Bernie Sanders? Hillary Clinton? California Gov. Gavin Newsom? Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer?
Right now, in this topsy-turvy election year, your guess is as good as those from the experts.
And the 25th Amendment route of having Biden removed from office isn't necessarily dead.
If the Democratic Party poobahs think their best bet is Harris, and that letting her actually become president for six months might add to her appeal with voters, they could push to have Biden declared mentally unfit.
Only one thing's certain: Right now, it's all up in the air.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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