As the 2025 election season enters the “playoffs,” Jack Ciattarelli has earned a realistic chance to win New Jersey and prove it is now a legitimate swing state.
Admittedly, that path is narrow, and fighting electoral history is never easy. But here is the roadmap to victory, backed by my latest polling.
Before diving into those numbers, allow me to defend New Jersey to the rest of America. Jersey gets a very bad rap and way too much negative media attention. It is not merely the stepbrother to neighboring New York.
It is a gorgeous state, truly living up to its “Garden State” moniker. Most importantly, New Jersey embodies an ethos of patriotic Americana. It remains fiercely proud of its deep heritage as a founding bastion of America, where giants like Washington waged war to form America.
I recently filmed an upcoming documentary there on the massive ethnic moves to the political right in New Jersey. Tony Soprano’s hometown flipped to the GOP, as did Passaic County, where much of “The Sopranos” was filmed. Both Italians and Hispanics in New Jersey have left the radical Democrats in massive numbers, moving the state decidedly into battleground status.
While filming, I noticed more American flags than I have seen anywhere else in America! It is a fervently proud and patriotic place, albeit one ill-served by corrupt, ineffective Democrat rule.
So, for those patriots in Jersey, here are the hard numbers and the tangible plan to win:
The Shadow of Incumbency
Our new TIPP poll of 1,524 registered New Jersey voters makes clear that Democrats remain favored. For instance, the Dems have controlled the New Jersey state legislature for over two decades straight, and that dominance casts a long shadow over any outsider challenging the crooked system.
But guess what?
That same dominance also means Democrats own the state’s severe problems. You break it, you bought it, NJ Dems.
- 72% call affordability a major challenge.
- 63% cite property taxes.
- 57% name energy prices.
- Nearly 7 in 10 blame Democrats—Murphy, Biden’s policies, or the party overall—for high energy costs.
In baseball terms, Democrats have been on the mound a long time. So, the runs that score show up in the Democrats’ collective ERA stats. Mikie Sherrill inherits her party’s record. She is a loyal, partisan soldier in the corrupt Jersey Democrat machine.
The Shadow of Personalities
President Trump’s legendary presence looms especially large in this region. A true alpha, he takes up all the oxygen in the room. New Jersey has a complicated relationship with their Uncle Trump—familiar, larger than life, and impossible to ignore.
Democrats will do all they can to keep Ciattarelli in that shadow, making the race about personalities instead of performance.
But this poll shows the agenda tied to Trump is far more popular than any personality fights. A 55–36 majority supports deportations. Affordability (72%) dominates voter concerns, and voters correctly blame Democrats for a sliding standard of living in the Garden State. These working-class, blue-collar issues cut across party lines.
So, regardless of voters’ views on the current president, this race is about New Jersey. In that state, patriotic populism is a winning message. People clamor for safety and prosperity, yet get neither from entrenched Trenton interests. From Mikie Sherrill, they know that they will only get the status quo from another DC politician who moved to New Jersey just to run.
The Path Forward
In a head-to-head race without party ID, my poll shows Jack Ciattarelli trailing by only 1%, 36-37%, with a large 27% undecided. Once party ID is introduced, however, the race gets more challenging, with Jack at -7% among likely voters and -4% among “regular” voters.
That “regular” term means voters who say they “always/nearly always” vote in non-presidential years. Among that key cohort, the race for Ciattarelli is 43-47%, with only 9% undecided. So, it is uphill, no doubt. No exaggerated hype, no spin.
But…the numbers also show that Ciattarelli has a credible path if he stays disciplined.
- Affordability = Accountability. One-party rule made Jersey unaffordable; voters want relief.
- Deportations = Safety. Secure borders and fair enforcement mean safer streets, higher wages for citizens, and more affordable housing for the people who have called New Jersey home for generations.
- Step Out of the Shadows. Don’t let opponents make this about national personalities or party labels. Make it about performance.
The Bottom Line
New Jersey is in play, and the Democrats know it. Privately, they worry, and publicly they commit big funds to a state they have long taken for granted.
But New Jersey citizens are frustrated and restless. Understandably. They embrace their bold history, back to the American founding. In historic and beautiful Morristown, there is a statue depicting George Washington, Alexander Hamilton, and Marquis de Lafayette meeting there to plan America’s final victory over the British.
That spirit lives on—and not just in a marvelous statue… but in the hearts and minds of New Jersey patriots.
Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers, a populist right pro-laborer advocacy group, and senior political advisor to Catholic Vote.
He is a former senior advisor to President Trump and JD Vance, plus a former commentator for Fox News and CNN.
Original article link: American Greatness
Related (cross-tabs): League Of American Workers New Jersey Survey — August 2025
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Trump Ready For More Russia Sanctions Over Ukraine War – TIPP Insights
President Donald Trump says he is prepared to move to the second phase of sanctioning Russia following Moscow’s largest-ever aerial attack on Ukraine.
2. Ballistic Missile Used In Russian Attack On Kyiv Govt Building – Official - AFP
Russia used an Iskander ballistic missile in an attack that damaged a Ukrainian government building in Kyiv over the weekend, an official said Monday.
The head of the Ukrainian presidential administration, Andriy Yermak, said he discussed Sunday's attack — the first of its kind in the more than three-year war — with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
"For the first time, the enemy attacked the building of the Ukrainian government — a strike with an Iskander ballistic missile," Yermak wrote on X.
3. France In Fresh Political Crisis After MPs Oust Prime Minister - BBC
France has been plunged into a new political crisis with the defeat of Prime Minister François Bayrou at a confidence vote in the National Assembly.
The defeat – by 364 votes to 194 – means that Bayrou will on Tuesday present his government's resignation to President Emmanuel Macron, who must now decide how to replace him. Macron's office said this would happen "in the coming days".
The options include naming a new prime minister from the center-right, pivoting to the left, and finding a name compatible with the Socialist Party, and dissolving parliament so new elections are held.
4. France’s Financial Woes Push Government To The Brink – TIPP Insights
As France’s political crisis deepens and a debt crisis looms, investors are driving up the country’s sovereign borrowing costs to among the highest in the eurozone.
5. U.K. May Suspend Visas To Countries Without Migrant Return Policies - UPI
The United Kingdom's new home secretary said the country may suspend visas to countries that do not take back asylum-seekers after their failed asylum applications.
Shabana Mahmood said she would go "further and faster" than her predecessor Yvette Cooper and do "whatever it takes" to stop small boat crossings, The Guardian reported.
6. Six Killed In Jerusalem Bus Stop Shooting, Netanyahu Vows Response – TIPP Insights
At least six people were killed and more than a dozen injured after two gunmen opened fire on a crowded bus stop in Jerusalem Monday, Israeli officials confirmed.
The attack at Ramot Junction was the deadliest in the city in over two years. Victims included men in their 30s and 50s, along with a woman in her 50s who later died at the hospital, according to Magen David Adom emergency services.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the site, declaring, “We are at war against terrorism.” The Israel Defense Forces deployed troops to the area and launched searches around Ramallah in the West Bank.
7. Japan PM Ishiba To Resign Within 1 Year After Taking Office Amid Pressure – Kyodo News
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba on Sunday expressed his intention to step down less than a year after taking the helm, in a surprise coming a day before his Liberal Democratic Party was supposed to decide whether to hold a snap presidential contest.
On the back of recovering approval ratings for his Cabinet, Ishiba, once regarded as a reform-minded outsider within the LDP, tried to stay on as long as possible but apparently bowed to escalating pressure from party lawmakers.
His departure, however, could herald political turmoil in Japan, as the LDP is likely to continue struggling to join hands with an opposition party to form a majority coalition in parliament due to policy divisions, even after Ishiba steps down, pundits say.
8. Argentine President Milei's Party Suffers Provincial Election Loss - UPI
Argentine President Javier Milei's party suffered a provincial election loss, representing 40% of the South American nation's electorate, amid corruption allegations and opposition to his policies.
On Sunday, his La Libertad Avanza Party received 34% of the vote in Argentina's largest province, Buenos Aires, compared with the left-leaning Peronist opposition, which received 47%.
9. British Law Student Was Jailed In Dubai For 25 Years After Being Caught With 50 Grams Of Cocaine - DailyMail
A young British woman is in a 'living hell' after being jailed for 25 years in Dubai after being caught with a huge stash of cocaine, her mother has said.
Mia O'Brien, 23, of Huyton, Merseyside, has been given a life sentence after being caught with 50 grams of the Class A drugs in the Middle East in October.
The Liverpool University law student pleaded not guilty to drug offences in court but was convicted by a judge after just a day-long hearing on July 25.
10. Ranked: The Fastest Growing Jobs (2024-2034) – Visual Capitalist
The top two fastest-growing jobs relate to renewable energy: wind turbine technicians and solar panel installers. Four of the top 10 jobs relate to healthcare. The remaining four jobs are related to computers and math.
11. Mortgage Rates Drop Near Lowest Level In A Year After Jobs Disappointment – Yahoo Finance
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage was 6.28% on Monday, down from 6.5% a few days earlier, according to Mortgage News Daily. Some brokers are advertising sub-6% rates on certain types of 30-year purchase and refinancing loans.
12. Homeowners’ Wealth May Be Shrinking As Price Gains Lag Inflation – Fox News
Median listing prices up just 0.5% while inflation rises 2.7%
Home prices are rising, which is boosting American homeowners' net worth – though those gains may be eroded by stubbornly high inflation.
Data from Realtor.com showed that median home listing prices were up 0.5% in July from a year ago, though the outlet noted in a report that inflation has outpaced those gains and is up 2.7% year over year.
13. Gold Prices Surge Past $3,600 Per Ounce. Is It Too Late To Buy In Now? – CBS News
As global uncertainty continues to mount, investors have been piling into gold, which many consider the ultimate safe-haven asset. That, in turn, led the price of gold to surge past $3,600 per ounce on Monday morning — a new record high and a stunning increase of over $1,000 per ounce compared to just one year ago.
While gold's meteoric rise might suggest that the window of opportunity is closing, there are actually multiple factors that indicate this bull run could still have significant room to grow.
📊 Market Pulse — September 8, 2025
🟢 S&P 500 — 6,495 (+0.21%)
Stocks held steady near record highs as traders positioned for this week’s U.S. inflation data, which could confirm a September Fed rate cut.
🔴 10Y Yield — 4.05% (-4 basis points)
Treasury yields slid, reflecting a flight into bonds as investors doubled down on expectations of monetary easing.
🔴 Crude Oil — $61.87 (-2.54%)
Oil dropped sharply, signaling demand worries even after OPEC+ kept its output hike modest compared to earlier increases.
🟢 Bitcoin — $111,978 (+0.21%)
Crypto consolidated near recent levels, holding ground as risk sentiment balanced between Fed easing hopes and growth concerns.
🟢 Gold — $3,592 (+1.28%)
Bullion extended its record-setting run, drawing safe-haven flows amid tariff disputes and global fiscal worries.
🔴 Dollar Index — 97.46 (-0.32%)
The dollar weakened, pressured by dovish Fed bets and diversification into gold and other safe assets.
