By Barak Barfi - Project Syndicate | May 6, 2025
Destabilizing Syria's fragile government, under the pretext of protecting the Druze sect, will do nothing to strengthen Israel's already-powerful position in the Middle East. On the contrary, Israeli policy, part of a decades-old strategy of undermining Sunni power, risks paving the way for the emergence of a formidable new threat.
WASHINGTON, DC – After months of sectarian violence, kidnappings, and cross-border clashes, the last thing Syria’s fledgling government needs is a neighbor stoking tensions. But that is what Israel is doing, as it erects military bases in the countries’ demilitarized “buffer zone,” strikes military sites, and kills security officials – all part of a well-worn strategy of backing minority groups against Sunni majorities in the Arab world. But by pursuing it in Syria, Israel is risking strategic blowback.
Along with neighboring Lebanon, Syria has the most diverse population in the Middle East. While Sunni Arabs comprise 65% of the population, their majority is far smaller than in, say, Egypt (around 90%). The remaining 35% of Syria’s population includes members of heretical Islamic offshoots, along with Sunni Kurds and Christians.
Managing this diversity has proved challenging for Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which came to power after Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s ouster in December. Its cadres are drawn from al-Qaeda, which believes that Sunni Arabs should hold all the rights – and all the power – in the Islamic world. And while the HTS leadership has tempered its religious zeal, some of its foot soldiers have not.
In March, clashes between HTS and Assad’s Alawi sect, a heretical Shia offshoot accounting for around 12% of Syria’s population, left more than 1,000 dead. The violence rattled Christians, who largely supported the toppled government. Meanwhile, groups loyal to Turkey have skirmished with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast.
But it is tensions with the Druze, another heterodox group, that are proving most vexing for Syria’s young government. After a spurious audio recording attributed to a Druze leader blaspheming the Prophet Muhammad circulated on social media, masked gunmen descended on the Damascus suburb of Jaramana. After the melee drew in HTS security officials, Israel declared that it would protect the tiny sect. It has since targeted members of Syria’s security forces who clashed with the Druze and mounted airstrikes near the presidential palace.
Israel’s machinations in Syria are nothing new. Within months of Israel’s birth, senior foreign ministry officials mused about sponsoring a coup there, in order to strengthen their position in the 1948 Arab-Israeli war.
More broadly, Israel has often used support of minorities to undermine Sunni power. In Lebanon, it was the Christians. In 1955, Army Chief of Staff Moshe Dayan floated the idea of convincing a Christian military officer to “declare himself the savior of the Maronite [Christian] population,” before invading Lebanon to help install a Christian regime that would ally itself with Israel.
In the 1970s, Prime Minister Menachem Begin – claiming that Israel had a “duty” to prevent the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from committing “genocide” against Christians – supported a renegade Lebanese Christian sergeant-major, in the hopes of creating a buffer zone along Lebanon’s southern border, where it could exert some control. In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon, expelled the PLO, and installed a Christian president, Bashir Gemayel, soon assassinated by a member of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party.
Israel’s efforts to undermine Sunni regimes have also entailed partnerships with Shia countries. Beginning in the 1960s, Israel worked with the Shah of Iran to support the besieged Iraqi Kurds in their fight against the central government. The resulting insurgency was so devastating that then-Iraqi Vice President Saddam Hussein ceded the Shatt al-Arab waterway to Iran, in exchange for its pledge to stop supporting the Kurds.
In light of this history, it is not surprising that Israeli leaders now seek to carve out a Druze enclave on the Syrian border, thereby creating a buffer between Israel and the Sunnis. Nor is it surprising that Israel has identified ambitious Druze figures eager to challenge both the central government and their own sect’s traditional leadership.
This effort has broad support among Israeli politicians, from the prime minister to the opposition leader. In their view, a fractured Syria desperately attempting to put out regional and sectarian fires would lack the resources and capacity to threaten Israel.
But this vision is short-sighted. After all, upheaval and division could bring down the HTS government – and Israel might not like what replaces it. The Turks who back the group and support factions on the northern Syrian border may be persuaded to deploy troops deep inside the country. A resurgent Islamic State in Iraq and Syria could exploit the chaos of HTS’s downfall to expand its influence, just as it did when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011. After Gemayel’s assassination in 1982, Hezbollah stepped into the breach in southern Lebanon. By 2000, Hezbollah had driven Israel from Lebanese territory, and in 2006 launched a devastating war that ended in a stalemate.
Following the Assad dynasty’s collapse, Israel has attained near-supremacy in the Middle East. Destabilizing a nascent government that has no desire to tangle with a stronger neighbor will do nothing to strengthen this position. On the contrary, a policy based on reflexive hubris risks paving the way for the emergence of a formidable new threat.
Barak Barfi is a former research fellow at New America and a former visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Copyright Project Syndicate
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Russia Accuses Ukraine Of Drone Attack On Moscow Days Before WW2 Parade - BBC
Russia says Ukraine launched a drone attack on Moscow - days before the start of a ceasefire, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin to coincide with a World War Two parade.
Moscow's four major airports shut for a few hours on Tuesday amid the barrage, authorities said. Moscow is due to hold a parade on 9 May to mark the victory of the Soviet Union and allies over Nazi Germany. This year is the 80th anniversary of the end of WW2 and will see world leaders, including China's Xi Jinping, in Russia for the event.
2. EU To Formally Accuse Russia Of Using Chemical Weapons In Ukraine - Systema
The Council of the European Union has prepared a new sanctions regulation that, for the first time, formally accuses Russia of using CS gas as a method of warfare on the front lines in Ukraine.
In an explanatory memorandum seen by RFE/RL's Russian Investigative Unit Systema, EU officials refer to two reports by the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW), published at Ukraine's request in November 2024 and February 2025, as the basis for the move. This proposal is part of a three-package set of sanctions the EU is expected to adopt in the coming days.
3. Russia Wants ‘Fair’ U.S.-Iran Nuclear Deal: Putin To Iranian President - Al Arabiya
“The Russian side confirmed its readiness to contribute to the promotion of this dialogue with the goal of reaching a fair agreement based on the principles of international law," the Kremlin said in a readout of a call between the leaders of the two countries.
Later on Tuesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry said that Iran and other countries that do not possess nuclear weapons have a legitimate right to develop their own civil nuclear energy programs.
4. China’s Economy On Cusp Of A Deflationary Death Spiral - Asia Times
Tariffs are drying up international demand for Chinese goods, and in a bid to keep factories alive, Beijing is urging exporters to turn inward. However, that pivot is compounding the very problem it aims to solve.
Deflation isn’t an abstract threat in China anymore—it’s visible across the economy. After barely holding above zero for much of 2023 and 2024, consumer prices have now dropped for two straight months. Producer prices have fallen for 29 consecutive months. March’s figures showed the sharpest drop in four months, and forecasts point to an even steeper decline in April.
5. China's Solar Panel Makers Plunge To First Combined Net Loss - Nikkei Asia
Seven leading Chinese solar panel makers logged a combined net loss last year for the first time in comparable data going back to 2017, as heavy investment in new production left supply far outstripping demand.
Chinese companies control more than 80% of global capacity in the solar industry, from silicon and wafers to cells and panels. Nine of the top panel makers by production volume are Chinese. The seven of those manufacturers that are publicly listed and focus on panel production booked an aggregate net loss of 27 billion yuan ($3.7 billion).
6. Hamas Says Pointless To Engage In Ceasefire Talks - Report - The Jerusalem Post
"There is no sense in engaging in talks or considering new ceasefire proposals as long as the hunger war and extermination war continue in the Gaza Strip," senior Hamas official Basem Naim was cited as saying.
Later on Tuesday, a spokesperson for Qatar's Foreign Ministry said mediation efforts were ongoing.
7. Houthis Surrender, U.S. Bombings To Stop “Immediately” - TIPP Insights
President Donald Trump announced that the United States will stop bombing Yemen’s Houthi rebels, saying the Iran-backed group has agreed to halt attacks on shipping lanes in the Middle East.
“They don’t want to fight anymore,” Trump told reporters at the White House. “We will honor that and we will stop the bombings. They have capitulated.” The president said that the Houthis asked the U.S. to stop airstrikes and pledged to stop targeting ships in the Red Sea.
8. Iran Begins Rolling Blackouts in Tehran As Electricity Demand Soars - RFE/RL
Iran’s continued struggle with electricity shortages has led to the implementation of rolling blackouts in the capital, Tehran.
Power cuts have become a fixture of both summer and winter months, but rolling blackouts this year have started earlier than usual despite the temperatures being relatively low. Dalga Khatinoglu, an energy expert based in Azerbaijan, said that Iran has no short-term solution for its electricity shortage, and even if it were to triple or quadruple its power production, it might only reach a balance sometime in the next decade.
9. U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Record High In March - TIPP Insights
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that the U.S. trade deficit surged 14% to a record $140.5 billion in March as businesses rushed to import goods ahead of steep tariffs.
This import surge dragged first-quarter GDP into negative territory for the first time in three years, shrinking the economy at an annualized rate of 0.3%. Imports hit an all-time high of $419 billion, with goods imports soaring 5.4% to $346.8 billion. Exports rose modestly to $278.5 billion.
10. App Used By Ex-NSA Mike Waltz Suspends Service After Reported Hack - TIPP Insights
TeleMessage, a platform operated by Oregon-based company Smarsh, confirmed in an email that it is “investigating a potential security incident” and halted operations “out of an abundance of caution,” Reuters reported.
Photos from last week’s cabinet meeting revealed Waltz and several senior Trump administration officials using a less secure version of Signal — a clone developed by TeleMessage for archiving — just days before Waltz was nominated as United Nations ambassador. The breach follows last month’s Signal-related security scandal that contributed to his dramatic demotion.
11. Trump Launches Voluntary Deportation Program With $1,000 Incentive - TIPP Insights
Under the new plan, individuals who choose to self-deport will be flown out on commercial flights at government expense and receive a $1,000 stipend.
Officials say the policy is designed to reduce deportation costs, which typically average $17,000 per person. By shifting to voluntary departure, the administration estimates the cost would drop to $4,500 — a savings of nearly 70 percent.
12. European Union To Spend $533 Million To Lure Science Researchers - UPI
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen appeared alongside French President Emmanuel Macron at Sorbonne University in Paris to unveil the initiative.
The Trump administration has terminated several billion dollars in research grants. In her speech, von der Leyen didn't mention Trump or the United States.
"Choose Europe for Science" would provide $566 million from 2025 to 2027 to attract foreign researchers to "help support the best and the brightest researchers and scientists from Europe and around the world," she said.
13. India, UK Strike Ambitious Trade Deal - TIPP Insights
India and the United Kingdom have finalized a landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and a Double Contribution Convention, marking a major milestone in bilateral relations.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the deal following a call with his British counterpart, Prime Minister Keir Starmer, describing the agreements as “ambitious and mutually beneficial.” The FTA is expected to deepen the India-UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, enhancing trade, investment, innovation, and job creation across both economies.
14. UN Report Says Aid Cuts Led To Global Development Slowdown - D.W.
The annual Human Development Index (HDI) report by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) said that despite the rebound seen after the COVID-19 pandemic by 2023, the recovery is now losing momentum, with life expectancy and income growth stalling and the number of ongoing conflicts rising.
Iceland topped the Human Development Index ranking. UNDP chief Achim Steiner said that recent cuts to international aid by several countries, led by the United States under President Donald Trump, will only serve to make ramifications more severe.
15. Bessent Says $2B Cut From IRS Technology Budget Without Disruptions - Reuters
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration has cut $2 billion from the IRS information technology budget without operational disruptions and intends to save hundreds of millions more by automating processing of paper forms.
"Last year, the IRS spent approximately $450 million on paper processing with nearly 6,500 full-time staff dedicated to the task," Bessent said in testimony before a U.S. House of Representatives Appropriations subcommittee hearing. "Through policy changes and automation, Treasury aims to reduce this expense to under $20 million by the end of President (Donald) Trump's second term."
16. UK Has A Shocking Response To Bitcoin Reserves - TheStreet
The UK has ruled out the possibility of having a Strategic Bitcoin or crypto reserve, unlike the U.S.
Speaking at the Financial Times Digital Asset Summit in London, Economic Secretary to the Treasury, Emma Reynolds, MP, said, “We don't think that's appropriate for our market.” Although the U.K. isn’t as quick to follow Washington’s lead on Bitcoin accumulation, it is throwing in with the U.S. when it comes to regulatory cooperation, Reynolds explained.
17. Nuts, Seeds OK For Those With Diverticulitis, Study Indicates - HealthDay News
Nuts and seeds do not increase the risk of diverticulitis, according to findings published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
As people age, they develop small pouches that bulge outward in weak spots along the walls of the colon. These pouches are called diverticula. Diverticulitis occurs when one of these pouches becomes infected or inflamed. Symptoms can include abdominal pain, fever, nausea, vomiting, cramping, constipation or diarrhea.
People can lower their risk of diverticulitis by adopting one of four common health-focused diets, researchers found.
