The U.S. military action to arrest Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, has emerged as a defining event in Latin American politics. Conducted in its immediate aftermath—January 8–14, 2026—the latest TIPP Insights national survey in Colombia (n=2,051, margin of error ±2.7%) captures the public’s resounding response and reveals how this development is accelerating the advance of conservative populism across the region.
Overwhelming Approval for Maduro’s Arrest
The poll, fielded just days after the capture, shows 65% of Colombians approve of the U.S. operation, with approval climbing to 81% in the Plains region. This strong endorsement reflects deep-seated rejection of narco-linked authoritarianism and widespread support for decisive action to confront threats to regional stability. The timing is critical: the survey directly measures sentiment in the wake of this high-profile event, demonstrating that the Maduro arrest has become a powerful catalyst for pro-U.S. alignment and a game-changer for candidates who can credibly champion hemispheric security cooperation.
Trump’s Striking Popularity in Colombia
President Trump enjoys 45% approval in Colombia (disapproval 36%)—substantially higher than in many U.S. surveys and exceeding incumbent Gustavo Petro’s 39% approval. Only 25% describe current U.S.-Colombia relations as positive, yet 73% want them strengthened, and 70% say the bilateral relationship is important to their presidential vote. Colombians clearly seek a much closer, more cooperative partnership with the United States. Abelardo de la Espriella is ideally positioned to harness this sentiment, positioning himself as the candidate of renewed alliance—much as José Antonio Kast in Chile, Javier Milei in Argentina, and Nasry Asfura in Honduras have done in their respective contexts.
Runoff Advantage for de la Espriella
In the multi-candidate first round (including leaners), leftist Iván Cepeda leads with 31%, de la Espriella stands at 25%, and centrist Sergio Fajardo at 12%. Runoff scenarios highlight de la Espriella’s clear edge: he significantly outperforms Fajardo among self-identified conservative voters (56% to 11%) and holds a modest but meaningful advantage among independents and those with no stated ideology (18% to 11%). Among centrists, the two are nearly even (de la Espriella 26%, Fajardo 23%). This superior ability to consolidate conservative and independent support gives de la Espriella a stronger path to victory in a second round.
Runoff matchups confirm the pattern:
- De la Espriella vs. Fajardo: de la Espriella 32%, Fajardo 26%, blank 22%, not voting/unsure 20%.
- De la Espriella vs. Cepeda: de la Espriella 33%, Cepeda 40%, blank 16%, not voting/unsure 10%.
De la Espriella’s performance is particularly strong among older voters and in the Coffee Axis and Plains regions—demographics energized by security concerns.
Voter Priorities Align with Conservative Themes
Insecurity and violence top concerns at 37%, followed by corruption (24%) and armed groups/narco-trafficking (17%). Economic issues rank far lower at 13%. De la Espriella’s focus on security and governance integrity aligns directly with these priorities.
Broader Regional Momentum
The Colombian data reflect a wider pattern. José Antonio Kast’s victory in Chile’s December 2025 election produced the country’s most conservative government in recent decades, centered on crime reduction and migration control. Javier Milei’s reforms sustain robust backing in Argentina, Daniel Noboa won reelection in Ecuador through an anti-organized-crime platform, and Nasry Asfura’s conservative success in Honduras adds to the evidence. These outcomes stem from shared drivers: frustration with incumbent performance, rising violence, narco-trafficking, and disillusionment with prior leftist administrations.
Strategic Opportunity for the United States
The Maduro capture has created a timely opening. A Latin America increasingly receptive to conservative populist approaches promises enhanced cooperation on trade, migration management, narcotics interdiction, and countering external authoritarian influences—provided Washington respects national sovereignty. In Colombia, the TIPP Insights poll—taken in the immediate aftermath of the arrest—shows first-round fragmentation among conservative contenders but strong potential for runoff consolidation behind candidates who prioritize security and hemispheric alignment.
Conservative populism is advancing a coherent vision of order, accountability, and partnership. With Colombia’s first round set for May 31, 2026, and elections approaching elsewhere, the polling and regional dynamics are clear: this movement is gaining meaningful traction. Dismissing it would overlook a pivotal chance to reinforce stability and U.S. influence in the hemisphere.
Steve Cortes is president of the League of American Workers and advisor to Catholic Vote. He directs political campaigns on media, polling, and Hispanic outreach, including Trump 2016/2020 and Vance 2022 US Senate. He is a former broadcaster for Fox News and CNN.
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