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Record Holiday Spending Masks Deep Consumer Divide

Photo by Allef Vinicius / Unsplash

American consumers are spending more this holiday season despite bleak views of the economy. Online Black Friday sales hit $11.8 billion, up 9.1% from last year, while total Black Friday spending rose 4.1%, according to Adobe Analytics and Mastercard SpendingPulse. Cyber Monday sales are projected to reach a record $14.2 billion.

Analysts note the strong spending is masking underlying strain. Salesforce data shows discounts were shallower, the average selling price climbed 7%, and shoppers bought 2% fewer items, signaling price-driven growth rather than volume gains.

Inflation remains elevated at 3%, and household budgets are tightening. High-income consumers continue to drive much of the economy’s momentum.

Moody’s Analytics says the top 10% of earners accounted for nearly half of all U.S. spending in Q2, contributing to a widening K-shaped economy.

Value retailers like Walmart and select luxury brands are outperforming, while middle- and low-income households remain cautious.

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