Stronger Jobs Data Knocks Out December Rate-Cut Hopes

A December rate cut once viewed as nearly certain now appears unlikely after new federal data showed stronger-than-expected U.S. job growth. Employers added 119,000 jobs in September, more than double forecasts, while unemployment edged up to 4.4%, the highest since 2021.

Economists say the solid hiring signals enough economic resilience for the Federal Reserve to pause its rate-cut cycle.

FactSet’s survey now puts the odds of a December cut at just 22%, down from 97% in mid-October. CME FedWatch gives slightly higher odds at 41%.

Probability of a December rate cut now at 31.8% per ⁦@CMEGroup⁩ FedWatch Tool, down from 98.8% a month ago pic.twitter.com/bWsmpE3gsb

— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) November 20, 2025

Analysts say the Fed is reluctant to ease further while inflation remains at 3% and policymakers continue to warn against premature moves.

The central bank has already cut rates twice this fall but may wait until early 2026 before resuming reductions.

Without additional cuts, borrowing costs for homes and cars are likely to stay elevated, reinforcing Americans’ concerns about the cost of living.

Also read:

U.S. Home Sales Hit Eight-Month High Despite Record October Prices

The sales of homes in the U.S. picked up in October as falling mortgage rates drew more buyers back into the market. Existing home sales rose 1.2% to an annual rate of 4.10 million, the fastest pace since February and slightly above economists’ expectations, according to the

tippinsightsTIPP Staff

U.S. Adds 119,000 Jobs After Shutdown, Topping Expectations

The delayed September jobs report shows the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs, more than double expectations and a reversal from August’s revised loss of 4,000 jobs, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Thursday. Economists had forecast only 50,000 new jobs. July’s total was also

tippinsightsTIPP Staff

Build More Homes

By Victor Joecks, The Daily Signal | November 19, 2025 Young adults need lower housing prices, not longer mortgages. The median age of first-time homebuyers is now 40, according to a recent report from the National Association of Realtors. Among all buyers, the median age was 59. Homebuyers are more likely

tippinsightsTIPP Staff

Shutdown Only A Snapshot Of Looming Fiscal Crisis

By Joe Penland via Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity | November 18, 2025 The Tip of the Iceberg The recent government shutdown inflicted a great deal of hardship nationally. Federal workers — including military personnel, air traffic controllers, and law enforcement officers — went unpaid. Millions of Americans relying on SNAP

tippinsightsTIPP Staff