The Smithereens

Part I — The Facts on Prices and Wages

President Trump has no excuses to make for low inflation or affordability or anything concerning the economy.

His first term record of strong growth and barely minimal inflation was so vastly better than President Biden to begin with.

And now because of a couple of individual food prices, Democrats and the lefty press are somehow trying to label Mr. Trump as an inflationist.

Here’s just a couple of numbers. Mr. Trump has been in office for eight months of consumer price index reports.

Grocery prices have risen at a 2.1 percent annual rate. That’s all. 

Now some prices jump up, like beef and eggs temporarily, but then they come down with policy adjustments. And meanwhile a whole bunch of other grocery prices will come down on their own. 

It’s the nature of the indexes, if you pay more for one thing, you’re gonna pay less for another.

When Mr. Biden was president, grocery prices increased 5.4 percent per year at an annual rate. Cumulatively, they increased 23 percent.

As for Mr. Trump’s eight months? His cumulative grocery price jump is 1.4 percent. That’s why I say he has nothing to apologize for.

Meanwhile, already typical family wages for working folks have increased more than 4 percent. That is twice the rate of grocery prices under Mr. Trump. 

And even significantly ahead of the overall inflation rate of 2.5 percent annually.

So let me get this right, grocery prices exploded under Mr. Biden. Total grocery prices have barely budged under Mr. Trump, despite a couple of outliers like beef and eggs.

Wages are rising faster than prices under Mr. Trump. But when groceries rose 23 percent under Mr. Biden, prices rose roughly $3,300 higher than wages. 

So real wages collapsed under Mr. Biden because prices were higher than wages.

Now Mr. Trump’s turned this around by a third improvement of wages above prices. Yet it’s just the beginning.

His program of tax cuts, de regulation, “drill baby drill,” and reciprocal free trade is in fact already working.

Supply side growth with lower inflation is the key to affordability and prosperity and frankly it’s the key to a hundred other good things.

In his first quarter, which ended in June, GDP rose 3.8 percent at an annual rate. The Atlanta Fed is now forecasting GDP for Mr. Trump’s second quarter ending in September to increase by 4.1 percent at an annual rate. Those are big numbers. 

That’s why Democrats shut the government down for the longest time in history, because they were intent on sabotaging Mr. Trump’s successes. 

And by the way, the public didn’t like it one bit. Not one bit. As it turns out the approval for the GOP position was better than the Democratic by more than 10 percentage points.

Part II — The Fed, the Markets, and the Road Ahead

The so-called affordability crisis is nearly overshadowing vast Wall Street betting on whether the Fed will cut its target rate a quarter point at its next meeting December 9 and 10 — because some Fed heads have been mouthing off about inflation and buying into the lefty press attacks on President Trump.

In the last few trading sessions investors have been selling because they think there’ll be no rate cut. Baloney.

First of all, grocery prices under Mr. Trump have barely budged despite a couple of highly publicized outliers.

Overall, grocery prices are up only 2.1 percent at an annual rate. The grocery problem guy was President Biden. Under his presidency, grocery prices jumped 5.4 percent annually.

Cumulatively for the whole period, grocery prices under Mr. Biden were up a whopping 23 percent. Yet in Mr. Trump’s first eight months, they were up a minuscule 1.4 percent.

And, as Mr. Trump said yesterday at the McDonald’s Action Summit, some grocery prices are already falling. He’s right.

In general, inflation is coming down, and that, according to Fed Governor Christopher Waller, an influential voice on the board, is a key reason why the central bank will cut its target rate by one quarter of a percent. He is also worried about some recession creep in the job market. 

And of course, Democrats sabotaged Mr. Trump’s fourth quarter with a 43-day shutdown that will take money out of Q4, though it will be recouped next year.

Let’s make this as simple as possible. To keep inflation down, first shrink the Fed’s balance sheet and reduce their target rates. That will keep the M2 money supply growing at a modest 5 percent, where it is now. Counterinflationary. 

Second, supply side tax cuts and deregulation and “drill baby drill” produce more goods and energy at lower prices.

Third, get rid of non-essential tariffs, like coffee, bananas, fruit, meat, nuts, and others.

Stick to the big stuff, the important stuff, the national security stuff — forget about stuff we don’t really grow much of.

Mr. Trump just did this, and the results are immediately positive.

Meanwhile, I want to add to this, profits are the mother’s milk of stock and the lifeblood of the economy. Estimates for next year are up 12 percent for the S&P 500. That’s a big number. That’s why folks should buy the dip.

And you know what? Sometime very early next year we will have an economy growing around 4 percent with an inflation rate below 2 percent accompanied by historically mild interest rates.

Last time I saw that was Ronald Reagan’s “City on a Hill.”

Lawrence Kudlow is a Fox News Media contributor and host of both “Kudlow” on weekdays and the nationally syndicated “Larry Kudlow Show” each Saturday. This column is adapted from his monologues on “Kudlow.”

1. Confronting Anti-Ellis Island Immigration—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal

2. Canceling Vs. Deplatforming: Tucker Carlson’s Misstep—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal

3. Republicans, Trump ‘Very Concerned’ About Obamacare Deal Funding Abortion, Senator Says—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal

4. Comey Scores Court Win Against DOJ. What’s Next?—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal

5. Supreme Court Case Could Have Major Effect On 2026 Midterms—Andrew Rice via The Daily Signal

6. ‘No Arkansas Tax Dollars Have Gone Toward’ School Counselor Association Criticized For Promoting DEI, Gov. Sanders Says—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal

7. Payroll Costs Of The Federal Swamp Exploded 24% During Biden Era—Mark Tapscott via The Daily Signal

8. This Welfare Program Has A Bigger Population Than California—Terence Jeffrey, Daily Caller News Foundation

9. How Terrorists Are Using AI—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal

10. Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ Policy Extended To Central Asia—Giorgi Labadze, The Daily Signal

From TIPP Insights News Editor

11. Trump Welcomes MBS With Military Fanfare And Expands U.S.-Saudi Ties

12. Trump Says MBS “Knew Nothing” About Khashoggi Murder Despite U.S. Intel

13. Trump Won’t Rule Out Troops As U.S. Military Tightens Grip Near Venezuela

14. Standoff Escalates As Maduro Invites Trump To Face-to-Face Talks

15. China's 'PLA Daily' Slams U.S. Over Venezuela Deployment, Calls It ‘Gunboat Diplomacy’

16. UN Backs Trump’s Gaza Plan As Security Council Approves U.S. Resolution

17. House Set To Vote On Epstein Files Disclosure As Pressure Mounts On DOJ

18. Wall Street Slides As Investors Fear AI Bubble And Nvidia Stumbles

19. Key Education Offices Shift To Other Agencies As Trump Administration Begins Restructuring

20. Court Strikes Down Texas Congressional Map, Orders Return To 2020 Lines

21. AI Takes Over Modern Love As Dating, Weddings And Breakups Go Digital

22. Massive Cloudflare Failure Hits X, ChatGPT, Spotify And Others

📊 Market Mood — Wednesday, November 19, 2025

🟨 Futures Flat as Markets Brace for Nvidia
U.S. stock futures hovered near the flatline early Wednesday as investors digested a multi-day tech rout and waited for Nvidia’s earnings after the close. Tuesday’s selloff deepened concerns that AI spending, often debt-financed, may be overheating, with leading chipmakers dragging the Nasdaq sharply lower. A BofA fund-manager survey labeled an “AI bubble” as the market’s top tail risk.

🟥 Nvidia Earnings Take Center Stage
Nvidia, now 7% of the S&P 500 with a $4.41T valuation, reports today and could set the tone for markets into year-end. Consensus calls for $55.2B in revenue and $36.5B in adjusted operating income. Investor debate is centered on whether massive data-center capex is sustainable amid fears of circular dealmaking across the AI supply chain.

🟧 Retail Earnings: Lowe’s and Target on Deck
Lowe’s and Target report before the bell, offering key readouts on consumer strength heading into the holiday season. Home Depot’s soft results yesterday — weak big-ticket spending, tariff-driven caution — raised fresh doubts about household confidence. TJX reports today; Walmart follows Thursday.

🟨 FOMC Minutes Arrive Later Today
The Fed’s October meeting minutes land this afternoon. The central bank cut rates by 25 bps in both September and October, but Powell has warned December is not guaranteed. With limited data during the shutdown, policymakers appear divided, leaving December’s outcome near a 50-50 split.

🟩 Bitcoin Rebounds After Steep Slide
Bitcoin bounced after Tuesday’s drop erased all of its 2025 gains. Risk sentiment remains fragile, with outflows from U.S. Bitcoin ETFs totaling $3.7B since Oct. 10. The global crypto market has shed roughly $1.2T in six weeks per CoinGecko.

🗓️ Key Economic Events — Wednesday, November 19, 2025

🟨 10:30 AM — Crude Oil Inventories
Weekly measure of U.S. commercial crude stockpiles — a closely watched gauge of supply–demand balance in the oil market.

🟧 02:00 PM — FOMC Meeting Minutes
Detailed record of the Federal Reserve’s October policy meeting, offering insight into policymakers’ debate over future rate cuts.