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By Nina L. Khrushcheva - Project Syndicate | April 11, 2025
US President Donald Trump is threatening to impose yet more sanctions on Russia, in order to pressure President Vladimir Putin to accept a ceasefire deal in Ukraine. But if Putin leverages the right mix of well-calibrated demands and tantalizing economic offers, he may well be able to position himself as the one calling the shots.
NEW YORK – The US and Russian delegations that just met in Istanbul had made it clear that they were there to discuss the normalization of their diplomatic missions’ work, not the war in Ukraine. But such engagement is a clear corollary to US President Donald Trump’s efforts to negotiate an end to the war. The problem is that, with the exception of Trump, who dreams of winning a Nobel Peace Prize, no party with a stake in the war – not Russia, not Ukraine, and not the European Union – wants to end the conflict now. No one is satisfied with their negotiating position, and everyone’s reputation is on the line.
Ukraine’s options are particularly unappealing. Despite its valiant resistance to Russia’s assault, President Volodymyr Zelensky is in no position to secure his desired outcomes: recovery of all territories occupied or annexed by Russia (including Crimea) and full NATO membership (with ironclad security guarantees). This was true under Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, but Trump has all but ruled out such demands, calling them impractical.
In fact, Trump is going so far as to push Zelensky to give the US access to Ukraine’s rare-earth mineral deposits as compensation for America’s support during the war, without offering any security guarantees. Zelensky – a former actor who has fashioned himself as a latter-day war hero – faces an unenviable choice: make major concessions to both the US and Russia, or pour yet more Ukrainian blood and treasure into the illusory dream of “total victory.”
Europe is no more inclined than Ukraine to support a peace deal now. EU leaders have long contended that anything short of the total defeat of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s agenda to reclaim Russia’s sphere of influence in the former Soviet space would represent a threat to Europe, noting that even a weakened Russia would remain a spoiler. While they surely recognize by now that this outcome is virtually impossible, they would rather postpone the inevitable embarrassment of accepting a peace deal that grants Russia concessions.
Russia has less to lose from a peace agreement today, and Putin might be able to end the conflict without losing much face. The country has defied expectations by weathering harsh sanctions and other restrictions, and avoiding the destabilization of the regime. Moreover, though it has not fully annexed Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk, or Zaporizhzhia, Russia has inflicted considerable territorial losses on Ukraine, which are unlikely to be fully reversed. Perhaps most important, Trump is so keen to strike a deal that he may well be willing to meet critical Russian demands, like keeping Ukraine out of NATO, especially if Putin softens his opposition to Ukraine remaining armed and is open to Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
But Putin is in no rush to get a peace agreement. To be sure, US and Russian authorities have hailed bilateral peace talks – including meetings in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, in February and March – as a diplomatic breakthrough. But statements from Russia’s representatives – in particular, Sergey Beseda, an adviser to the head of Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), and Grigory Karasin, chair of the Federation Council’s international affairs committee – suggest that there has been little progress toward an agreement.
One reason for this may be that neither Ukraine nor the EU is at the table, which limits what Trump can offer. Perhaps more important, Putin is still trying to work out where that limit is. This explains why, as part of a new a maritime security deal in the Black Sea, Putin has demanded the lifting of sanctions and restrictions against producers and exporters of agricultural goods and against some financial institutions, including the state-owned agricultural bank Rosselkhozbank. Only when these conditions are met – and the Kremlin has a clearer sense of how far Trump will go to fulfill his peacemaking ambitions – can a ceasefire be negotiated.
Putin is taking other steps to set Russia up for success in negotiations with the US. Notably, he recently sent his “investment envoy” Kirill Dmitriev – the Stanford-educated former Goldman Sachs investment banker who directs Russia’s Direct Investment Fund – to the US to highlight the economic benefits of renewed bilateral cooperation. Beyond praising Trump for supposedly averting World War III, Dmitriev offered an enticing vision of US access to Russian Arctic resources and rare-earth minerals, as well as joint Mars and Moon missions.
While the meetings did not produce any concrete advances, Dmitriev proclaimed that the two sides had taken “three steps forward” toward better relations. What he really meant may well be that US leaders are now more motivated to seize economic and financial opportunities in Russia and overcome the hurdle that the Ukraine war represents. Less than a week later, Steve Witkoff, the Trump administration’s de facto envoy to the Russian president, appeared in Saint Petersburg for a meeting with Dmitriev, and reportedly with Putin.
Those opportunities might be tailored for Trump himself. After all, Trump is a businessman first, and I know his longstanding ambition to establish a presence in Moscow firsthand. During a chance encounter in 1996, he told me that he wanted to bring the Miss Universe Pageant to Russia (a goal he achieved in 2013) and build a Trump Tower in Moscow (a vision he has yet to realize). Might the Kremlin offer the US president prized Red Square real estate – or some other lucrative business deal – in exchange for sanctions relief?
For now, Trump says he is “pissed off” at Putin for not being more amenable to his administration’s ceasefire proposals, and he is threatening to impose yet more sanctions. But, by leveraging the right mix of well-calibrated demands and tantalizing offers, Putin may be able to position himself as the one calling the shots. Given this, whatever unfolds in these rapid-succession meetings will probably mean less than what follows: Karasin and Beseda reciting, yet again, the Kremlin’s rigid demands, or Dmitriev waving economic enticements before Trump and his cadre in Washington.
Nina L. Khrushcheva, Professor of International Affairs at The New School, is the co-author (with Jeffrey Tayler), most recently, of In Putin’s Footsteps: Searching for the Soul of an Empire Across Russia’s Eleven Time Zones (St. Martin's Press, 2019).
Copyright Project Syndicate
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Oil Price Plunge Could Severely Impact Russia's Economy — Oilprice.com
Russia's Central Bank warns that falling oil prices and tariff wars threaten the Russian economy.
The price of Russia's Urals crude is nearing $50 per barrel due to the global oil market slump. The Kremlin acknowledges the "turbulent" oil market and is monitoring the situation closely.
The oil market meltdown in recent days could pose risks to the Russian economy, Russia’s Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on Tuesday.
2. This Is How Russia Recruits Chinese Citizens To Fight In Ukraine — RFE
In an ad posted on the Chinese social media platform Weibo, men are seen leaving their day jobs to go fight for Russia in Ukraine.
The clip – in Russian with Chinese subtitles – ends with a call to action, saying, "You're a man. Be a man," before saying recruits could get a signing bonus ranging from the equivalent of $7,000 to $21,000 and a monthly income worth about $2,400.
3. Ukraine Allies Pledge €21bn In Fresh Military Aid — BBC
Ukraine's European allies have pledged €21bn ($24bn; £18bn) in a new tranche of military support for Kyiv in what they described as "a critical year" for the war.
More than half of this - €11bn in aid over four years - is coming from Germany. British Defence Minister John Healey said the pledges would send a strong signal to Moscow.
Europe's defence ministers said they saw no sign of an end to the war, despite Trump's promise of a ceasefire.
4. Witkoff Meets Putin In Efforts To Broker A Ceasefire — TIPP Insights
Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s diplomatic envoy, has arrived in Russia on Friday and is expected to meet President Vladimir Putin, the Kremlin confirmed.
This marks Witkoff’s third meeting with Putin as part of Trump’s efforts to broker a ceasefire in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
5. US Fires Greenland Military Base Chief For 'Undermining' Vance — BBC
The US military's Space Operations Command said Col Susannah Meyers had been removed from her role at Pituffik Space Base due to a "loss of confidence in her ability to lead".
Last month, Vance said Denmark had "not done a good job" for Greenlanders and had not spent enough on security while visiting the Danish territory.
The alleged email, released by a military news site, told staff Vance's comments were "not reflective" of the base. A Pentagon spokesman cited the article, saying "undermining" US leadership was not tolerated.
6. China Raises Tariffs On U.S. Goods To 125%; Says It Will 'Ignore' Trump If He Persists — UPI
China hiked its tariffs on imports of American products by another 41% to 125% on Friday in an escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies, warning it would price U.S. goods out of the Chinese market.
Calling U.S. President Donald Trump's ramping up of tariffs on China on Thursday to 125% "unilateral bullying and coercion," the Chinese Finance Ministry said in a statement that the rate on U.S. goods would be increased from 84% to 125%, effective Saturday.
7. Five Things To Know About The Upcoming ‘Indirect’ US-Iran Talks In Oman — France 24
As tension mounts between the US and Iran, envoys from Washington and Tehran will hold an “indirect” meeting in Oman on Saturday.
It’s a rare diplomatic exchange between two countries that have been locked in a kind of cold war for almost half a century – and one that will unfold in the shadow of US President Donald Trump’s repeated threats of military force against the Islamic Republic.
8. Iran Says It May Expel Nuclear Inspectors If Military Threats Continue — Washington Times
Iran may sever ties with the International Atomic Energy Agency if threats of external military force from the U.S. continue, an advisor to the Islamic Republic’s supreme leader said Thursday.
Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, warned in an X post Thursday that external threats could destroy Iran’s relationship with the nuclear watchdog.
“The continuation of external threats and Iran being in a state of military attack may lead to deterrent measures, he wrote. “Including expulsion of inspectors from IAEA and cessation of cooperation.”
9. French Far-Right Leader Marine Le Pen Appeals Conviction In Embezzlement Trial — France 24
The National Rally’s Marine Le Pen on Friday filed an appeal against a Paris court that found her guilty of misappropriating EU funds early last week.
Le Pen, who ran unsuccessfully for office three times in a row, is seeking to overturn the court’s verdict in time for the 2027 presidential vote.
10. Reducing U.S. Troops In South Korea Would Be 'Problematic,' Top Commander Warns — UPI
As North Korea continues to develop its weapons programs and strengthens military ties with Russia, a reduction of U.S. troops based in South Korea would be "problematic," the commander of U.S. Forces Korea said.
Army Gen. Xavier Brunson made the comment during a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on Thursday, amid concerns that the administration of President Donald Trump might look to downsize the U.S. military footprint in South Korea and elsewhere.
11. US Troops Headed To Panama — Responsible Statecraft
Deal struck with government there falls short of reinstalling American bases, however
As per a new joint deal with the Panamanian government, U.S. troops are now set to deploy near the Panama Canal for military training, exercises, and "other activities."
The deal, seen by AFP on Thursday, comes as an apparent concession to President Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to retake the major global trade route from Panama if it failed to reduce or axe fees it charged to American vessels passing through there.
12. Dollar Sinks To A 3-Year Low As US-China Trade Way Escalates — Barchart.com
The dollar index today is down by -1.20% and tumbled to a 3-year low. The dollar is sharply lower today because of concerns that the escalation of the US-China trade war would derail the economy and lead to stagflation.
China raised tariffs on all US goods to 125% from 84% in retaliation for the US raising tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. The dollar is also facing a confidence crisis as the US renegotiates its relationships with its trading partners, diminishing its reserve-currency status and prompting some foreign investors to liquidate their dollar assets.
13. Mortgage Rates Surge Over 7% As Tariffs Hit Bond Market — CNBC
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage surged 13 basis points Friday to 7.1%.
Mortgage rates are now at the highest level since February. “Forget about housing in this environment,” said Nancy Lazar, global chief economist at Piper Sandler.
14. Apple Tariff Exemption Odds Increasing As China Levies Kick In — IBD
Wall Street analysts and investors think the odds are increasing that Apple (AAPL) will get an exemption to the Trump tariffs. Apple stock rose on Friday.
CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino said the likelihood that Apple will get an exemption has risen since President Donald Trump hiked tariffs on China imports to 125% on Wednesday. Apple makes most of its iPhones in China.
"The tariff impact, as it stands, would be particularly severe for Apple, potentially increasing its cost of goods sold by $50 billion," Zino said in a client note.
"We expect Apple to delay passing any tariff costs to consumers until its fall product cycle, while raising our odds of an Apple-specific exemption to 50% (from 20%) if no U.S.-China deal materializes soon," Zino said.
15. Want To Move To Middle-Earth? New Zealand Just Made It Easier For Rich Americans To Stay – USA Today
New Zealand eased requirements for its Active Investor Plus Visa Program, making it simpler for wealthy individuals to gain residency.
The updated program removes the English-language requirement and reduces the minimum required stay. While the visa contributes towards citizenship, it requires additional time spent in New Zealand.
16. Heavy Drinking Tied To Brain Damage, Increased Risk Of Dementia, Study Reports — Health News
Heavy drinkers have an increased risk of developing brain lesions associated with memory and thinking problems, a new study says.
Folks who imbibe eight or more alcoholic drinks a week have an increased risk of hyaline arteriolosclerosis, or a thickening and narrowing of the small arteries that feed the brain, researchers reported Wednesday in the journal Neurology.
