Trump, Adani, And The $10B Collision

Most Americans have not heard of Gautam Adani, one of the wealthiest individuals in the world. The 62-year-old Indian businessman, a close friend and supporter of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has made his name by promoting and owning mega-infrastructure projects around the globe. Adani's far-flung enterprise has interests in coal, mining, ports, highways, airports - and, most recently, solar power generation.

Why would an unknown businessman from nine time zones away test Trump's MAGA instincts?

Throughout the campaign and at the Chicago Economics Club speech hosted by Bloomberg in October, Trump reiterated that to bring back American manufacturing, he would offer incentives to multinational companies to invest in plants, factories, and infrastructure projects in the U.S. His favorite line was that he would discount the tax rate on multinational corporations to 15% if they invested in America.

Gautam Adani, recognizing the immense potential of getting on Trump's friendly side, posted a well-crafted message on X following Trump's reelection.

Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump. As the partnership between India and the United States deepens, the Adani Group is committed to leveraging its global expertise and investing $10 billion in US energy security and resilient infrastructure projects, aiming to create up to 15,000 jobs.

It was a masterclass tweet with all the hooks to get Trump interested: $10 billion in investments to make America stronger in energy? 15,000 jobs? Infrastructure projects? For Trumpworld, this was Christmas coming early.

But, this week, the promise of an aggressive businessman's offer to befriend Trump fell flat. Federal prosecutors from the Eastern District of New York (EDNY) charged Adani with multiple counts of fraud, including taking part in an elaborate bribery scheme to win coveted solar contracts and later lying about those actions to investors.

Breon Peace, the US attorney for EDNY, said in a statement: "As alleged, the defendants orchestrated an elaborate scheme to bribe Indian government officials to secure contracts worth billions of dollars... and lied about the bribery scheme as they sought to raise capital from U.S. and international investors."

The United States Attorney is the district's chief federal law enforcement officer and is also involved in civil litigation where the United States is a party. There are 93 field offices around the country to cover 94 federal districts (Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands are separate but share a United States Attorney). As Trump makes announcements about his cabinet and senior staff picks, he will also begin nominating the 94 US Attorneys, all of whom must be confirmed by the United States Senate.

Indeed, Trump's pick to serve as the Southern District of New York's top federal prosecutor, Jim Clayton, is already receiving praise. Clayton previously served as Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission during Trump's first term. He established a solid relationship with federal prosecutors in New York to go after financial crimes. Adani has been charged in the Eastern District of New York, a region that borders Clayton's jurisdiction.

Would Trump, the consummate businessman, ask Pam Bondi, his Attorney General nominee, to instruct the EDNY US Attorney to go easy on Adani, perhaps by dropping the case altogether? A $10 billion investment sounds too good to pass up.

Trump's instincts here, based on years of grievances that United States laws such as the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act handicap American corporations from pursuing international deals when other countries do not have similar restrictive laws, may make him want to make the Adani indictment go away. In Trump's mind, which is always transactional in bent and not based on any specific ideology other than making America great again, rules that inhibit American growth are counterproductive. But would he do the ultimate to help a dear friend - Modi - and add a favor that he can call on when Trump needs Modi's help during a future geopolitical crisis?

We would counsel against such interference unless Trump wants to be involved in a political scandal from the start. The Left and the media, soundly defeated in this month's elections, are waiting for a chance to pounce on Trump in any manner possible. They tried to hang the Matt Gaetz nomination around Trump's neck, but when Gaetz withdrew, the Left's efforts ran out of fuel. For the Left, Pam Bondi (a disciplined conservative who deeply believes in an America-first agenda, with close ties to Trumpworld) and Susie Wiles are far more severe threats than Gaetz could ever have been. Trump's brilliant last-minute bait-and-switch operation has neutralized the Left, which cannot mount another anti-AG-nominee campaign so quickly after the first one sputtered.

Thus far, Trump has run a superb transition effort with outstanding picks, a clear MAGA message accompanying each selection, and platinum-standard discipline unheard of in the Trump universe. Politically interfering in a federal indictment of a foreign businessman to lock in on a planned $10 billion investment would be reckless, opening Trump up to 24/7 charges that he is willing to skirt the law, no matter how grandiose his objectives may be. It would add to the Harris campaign narrative that Trump likes to rule with unchecked power with little regard for democratic norms and procedures.

Trump has walked away from numerous too-good-to-believe deals before. He should do the same and let federal law take its course.

Rajkamal Rao is a columnist and a member of the tippinsights editorial board. He is an American entrepreneur and wrote the WorldView column for the Hindu BusinessLine, India's second-largest financial newspaper, on the economy, politics, immigration, foreign affairs, and sports.

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