This essay reflects a European perspective on the shifting global order and the need for greater strategic autonomy. While it references recent changes in U.S. leadership, its primary focus is on Europe's path forward in defense, innovation, and democratic resilience.
By Anders Fogh Rasmussen - Project Syndicate | Apr 22, 2025
For too long, Europe has relied on cheap Russian energy, cheap Chinese goods, and cheap American security and technology. Now that this naive dependency is no longer an option, Europeans must be open and honest about what it will take to defend their values and interests in a dangerous new world.
COPENHAGEN – The US-led global order as we have known it is gone. As the tectonic plates of geopolitics continue to shift beneath us, the challenge for Europe is to keep its institutions alive and prevent the world from returning to an era of might makes right – where power accrues to strongman leaders in Washington, Moscow, and Beijing.
Rising to this challenge requires a fundamental reconsideration of long-held assumptions and beliefs. Clinging to old orthodoxies is not an option. Europeans cannot preserve democracy and our way of life with soft power alone. We must dispense with entrenched taboos and relearn the language of hard power. That is the only way to deter and defend against those who directly threaten our values and interests.
Yes, since US President Donald Trump’s return to power, hundreds of billions of euros in new spending have been earmarked for defense. But these commitments are not enough. Spending 2% of GDP on defense was a reasonable ambition for NATO in 2014, when the United States still played the role, however reluctantly, of global policeman. But those days are gone. Merely to keep pace with Russia’s military development, Europe must at least double its investment in defense. Indeed, I would go much further and say Europe should aim for 4% by 2028. Incoming German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s ambitions for their own countries must be replicated across the continent.
Bigger armies and more equipment will deter direct attacks, but guns and tanks are only one part of the equation. If Europe’s extra spending is confined to military procurement, it will miss an opportunity to spark its own high-tech revolution. Technological innovation is what underpins US and Chinese hard power. From AI and quantum computing to critical infrastructure and biotech, Europe is at risk of ossifying as the major powers sprint further ahead. In this scenario, our strategic dependencies on the US and China would only increase.
To defend the rules-based system, we must rethink the composition of our community. While old formats like the G7 can still serve an important purpose, we will need new ways of convening like-minded democracies. A coalition of such democracies – a D7 – can build new tools to promote open trade and economic cooperation, defense partnerships, intelligence-sharing, and access to critical minerals. They can even create new security arrangements that cover both cyber-kinetic attacks and economic coercion by major powers, akin to an economic version of NATO’s Article 5 mutual-defense provision.
To that end, the European Union should work closely with traditional partners – like the United Kingdom – and seek even closer relations with Canada, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Australia. It also should explore new ways to collaborate with India, a democracy whose GDP has doubled in the past decade, putting it on track to become the world’s third-biggest economy before the end of this decade. The point is not to replace America, but to ensure that Europe will remain resilient with or without US support.
For too long, Europe has relied on cheap Russian energy, cheap Chinese goods, and cheap American security and technology. But this naive dependency is no longer an option. In addition to mobilizing fiscal resources for defense and technology, Europe also must forge a new social contract.
Though we should not abandon what makes us European, we do need to revisit some tenets of the old welfare state. Freedom is not free. European leaders must be honest and open about the challenge we face, and about what it requires of us. The solutions will not all be popular, but we must remember that we have entered an era of crisis. Europeans must be equipped with the skills and resources to fend for themselves. We can learn a lot from the Ukrainians and the Taiwanese about building resilience and paying the price for freedom.
Each year, I convene the Copenhagen Democracy Summit under my Alliance of Democracies Foundation. When I created the Foundation in 2017, it was my long-held belief that the US would and must remain at the center of a global democratic alliance. Now, we must prepare for a world in which America is not only unreliable but even adversarial and expansionist.
New circumstances demand new strategies. Defending democracy is not a spectator sport. We will have to make some sacrifices, because the alternative is unimaginably awful. Europe has an opportunity to assume the mantle of leader of the free world. Our descendants will not forgive us if we fail to seize it.
Anders Fogh Rasmussen, a former NATO secretary-general (2009-14) and former prime minister of Denmark, is Founder of the Alliance of Democracies Foundation.
Copyright Project Syndicate
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
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Top-level Ukraine peace talks that were set to take place in London have been abruptly postponed, Britain's Foreign Office said, after several top diplomats pulled out at the last minute.
The announcement was made just hours before the April 23 meetings, which were to include Ukraine's foreign minister, had been scheduled to begin. The talks, which were aimed at trying to resolve Russia's war on Ukraine, were already facing serious headwinds after top diplomats, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, pulled out, effectively downgrading the meeting.
2. Vance Warns U.S. May ‘Walk Away’ As London Talks On Ending Ukraine War Downgraded - AFP
“We’ve issued a very explicit proposal to both the Russians and the Ukrainians, and it’s time for them to either say ‘yes’, or for the United States to walk away from this process,” Vice President Vance told reporters in India.
U.S. media reported that President Donald Trump was ready to accept recognition of annexed land in Crimea as Russian territory, and Vance said land swaps would be fundamental to any deal.
3. Trump: Zelenskyy Has ‘No Cards To Play,’ Needs To Make A Deal - TIPP Insights
Quoting Zelenskyy’s statement in The Wall Street Journal — “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea” — Trump called the stance “very harmful” and claimed the region was effectively lost under President Obama.
“Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian territory,” Trump wrote, “but inflammatory statements like this only prolong the war.”
4. Zelenskyy Says Ukraine Willing To Negotiate With Russia If Ceasefire Put In Place - Reuters
The Ukrainian leader, Volodymyr Zelenskyy admitted it would "not be possible to agree on everything quickly" but that a delegation he would send from Kyiv to London would have a mandate to discuss a full or partial ceasefire.
"We are ready to record that after a ceasefire, we are ready to sit down in any format so that there are no dead ends," he said in the presidential office in Kyiv. It came as Russian leader Vladimir Putin signalled that he too was prepared to hold direct talks with Kyiv.
5. ByteDance, Alibaba And Tencent Stockpile Billions Worth Of Nvidia Chips - Nikkei Asia
China's top internet companies have stockpiled billions of dollars' worth of Nvidia's H20 artificial intelligence chips this year before the U.S. cut off shipments of the components in April, Nikkei Asia has learned.
The H20 graphic processing unit (GPU) was specifically designed for sale in the Chinese market to comply with U.S. export controls, but ByteDance, Alibaba and Tencent began preparing last year for the possibility that Washington could curb their shipments, too, sources said.
6. Trump Now Says China Tariffs Will Come Down Substantially, But Won’t Be Zero - RFA
President Donald Trump told a White House news conference that “145% is very high” and could be lowered through China-U.S. negotiations.
Trump’s remarks came after comments by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the high tariffs are unsustainable and that he expects a “de-escalation” in the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
7. The U.S. Cannot Confront China Alone, Former Deputy Secretary Of State Warns - UPI
The United States must strengthen its alliances with global partners, particularly South Korea and Japan, to face the rising challenge posed by China, the former chief architect of White House strategy on Asia said.
Kurt Campbell, National Security Council coordinator for Indo-Pacific affairs under the administration of President Joe Biden, made the remarks in a keynote address at the Asan Plenum, a forum in Seoul hosted by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies.
8. China's Xiaomi Plans EV Research Center In Germany - Nikkei Asia
China's Xiaomi is planning a research and development center in Munich, Germany, that will focus on electric vehicles.
A Xiaomi spokesperson told Nikkei that plans for the R&D center are underway but declined to provide details. Xiaomi's debut electric vehicle, the SU7, sold roughly 137,000 units last year.
9. Nissan Plans $1.4bn In Fresh China Investment, Focusing On EVs And Hybrids - Nikkei Asia
Nissan Motor will invest another 10 billion yuan ($1.4 billion) in China by the end of 2026, the Japanese carmaker said, with plans to roll out new models to try and mount a comeback in the world's biggest auto market.
Stephen Ma, head of Nissan's China operations, revealed the move at the Shanghai International Automobile Industry Exhibition, also known as Auto Shanghai, which opened Wednesday.
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Toyota Motor Corp. announced plans to invest $88 million to boost hybrid vehicle production at its engine factory in Buffalo, West Virginia. The investment will increase production of hybrid transaxles for next-generation vehicles by late 2026, raising the total investment in the plant to over $2.8 billion.
While the spending will secure jobs for about 2,000 workers, it is not expected to create new positions, Toyota said.
11. S. Korea, China Hold Maritime Talks Amid Tensions Over Steel Structures In Yellow Sea - Yonhap
The talks come after the two countries engaged in a standoff in February in the Provisional Maritime Zone (PMZ) near South Korea's southwest coast, when Chinese authorities blocked a South Korean ship from inspecting a steel structure China installed in the area.
The two countries signed an agreement in 2000 to allow their fishing vessels to operate in the Provisional Maritime Zone (PMZ) and jointly manage marine resources, while prohibiting any activities beyond navigation and fishing. China insisted that the steel structure was a commercial fish farm that Seoul had no right to search.
12. Abbas Calls Hamas 'Sons Of Dogs' And Demands Release Of Gaza Hostages - BBC
President of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, has called Hamas "sons of dogs" in a fiery speech in which he demanded the group release the hostages it is still holding, disarm, and hand over control of Gaza in order to end the war with Israel.
Abbas told a meeting in the occupied West Bank that Hamas had given Israel "excuses" to continue its attacks on Gaza, and told it to "release the hostages and be done with it". The remarks were the strongest against the group that the president has delivered since the war began 18 months ago.
13. Iran Fortifying Buried Nuclear Sites As Talks With U.S. Continue, Report Says - Reuters
Iran is ringing two deeply buried tunnel complexes with a massive security perimeter linked to its main nuclear complex, a report said, amid U.S. and Israeli threats of attack.
The Institute for Science and International Security released its report based on recent satellite imagery as the U.S. and Iran prepare to hold a third round of talks this weekend on a possible deal to reimpose restraints on Tehran’s uranium enrichment program.
14. ChatGPT-Maker Wants To Buy Google Chrome - BBC
OpenAI would be interested in buying Chrome, the world's most popular browser, if Google was forced to sell it.
Nick Turley, an executive at the artificial intelligence (AI) company, was testifying on behalf of the U.S. government in an ongoing monopoly trial against Google. The U.S. wants the tech giant to be broken up, arguing it has too much dominance in the online search market. Google says Chrome is not for sale and has called for the antitrust lawsuit to be thrown out.
15. EU Fines Apple, Meta $799 Million For Digital Markets Act Violations - UPI
The European Commission fined Apple and Meta $570.85 million and $228.34 million, respectively for breach of the EU Digital Markets Act. The actions against the tech giants are the first non-compliance decisions adopted under the DMA.
The Commission found that Apple violated an anti-steering requirement under that law while Meta "breached the DMA obligation to give consumers the choice of a service that uses less of their personal data."
16. Bessent Urges IMF, World Bank To Ditch ‘Vanity Projects' - TIPP Insights
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday called for sweeping reforms at the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, accusing the institutions of drifting into “vanity projects” such as climate change and gender issues that dilute their core missions.
Speaking at the Institute of International Finance during the IMF-World Bank Spring Meetings, Bessent urged a return to priorities like macroeconomic stability and development.
17. Markets Rally As Wall Street Shakes Off Trade Jitters - TIPP Insights
Stocks rallied Wednesday as markets welcomed signs of easing tensions from the White House. President Donald Trump reassured investors he would not attempt to fire the Federal Reserve chair, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a potential “de-escalation” in the ongoing tariff standoff with China.
“There is an opportunity for a big deal here,” Bessent said during a morning speech, offering a more conciliatory tone amid volatile trade negotiations.
18. 84% Of World's Coral Reefs Struck By Worst Bleaching Event In History - UPI
The coral reef system in at least 82 nations and other territories have been exposed to enough heat to turn at least 84% of the world's coral white since the global event started last year in January, according to data by the U.S. government's Coral Reef Watch.
Otherwise known as the "rainforests of the sea," coral supports biodiversity and about a third of all marine species and at least a billion people.
19. Cantor Prepares $3 Billion Crypto Firm With Tether - Bloomberg
Cantor Fitzgerald LP, Tether Holdings Ltd. and SoftBank Group are in talks to form a $3 billion vehicle that would absorb billions of dollars in cryptocurrency.
Stablecoin giant Tether will contribute $1.5 billion of Bitcoin, while Tether-affiliated exchange Bitfinex and SoftBank plan to put in $600 million and $900 million of the cryptocurrency, respectively, according to a source. The deal is the latest spin on the business model of Michael Saylor’s Strategy, a software maker-turned-Bitcoin hoarder that has amassed about $45 billion of the digital asset.
20. Study Finds Rise In Teen Cannabis Use Following Edibles Rollout In Canada - HealthDay News
A study found a 26% increase in teen cannabis use in provinces that began selling cannabis edibles and extracts in October 2019. Use of edibles alone jumped 43%, researchers reported in JAMA Network Open.
In Quebec, where edibles remain banned, teen cannabis use didn't change. Cannabis products like chocolates, candies and sodas can be more appealing to teens - raising concerns about how legalization may influence youth behavior, CNN reported.
