50 Ways To Leave Your Ally: America Ends Europe’s Free Ride

In the weeks before the recent German elections, President Trump was the most prominent election issue. How would the new administration's policies regarding Ukraine and Russia impact Germany? How would American tariffs affect Germany's export-oriented economy? Would America withdraw from NATO? Is Trump upending 80 years of American leadership in the continent?

We are talking about mighty Germany, one of the largest and most influential countries in the world, often regarded as the powerhouse of Europe. It enjoys a highly developed market economy with a strong focus on manufacturing, engineering, and innovation. A key feature is its industrial base—think automotive giants like Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, alongside machinery, chemicals, and electronics. The country excels in producing high-quality goods, which it ships worldwide; exports account for nearly half of its GDP. The "Mittelstand," a network of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), is another backbone known for specialized, often family-owned businesses that dominate niche markets.

Germany's workforce is skilled and well-educated, supported by a robust vocational training system that feeds into its industries. Unemployment is relatively low, hovering around 3-5% in recent years, though it has ticked up slightly with global economic shifts. Wages are solid, and the social market economy blends capitalism with a strong welfare system—universal healthcare, pensions, and worker protections are standard.

All these factors have powered Germany to be the fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP, trailing only the United States, China, and Japan, and it's the biggest in the European Union. Currently, Germany is grappling with a mild recession. Growth stagnated in 2024 amid high inflation and weaker demand from China, a key trading partner. Still, its fiscal discipline (that famous "debt brake") and deep industrial roots keep it resilient. One would think that such a powerhouse could go it alone. Why is Germany then obsessed with what Washington does?

It is the same in neighboring France. The French can't imagine life without the Americans. During his visit to Washington earlier this week, French President Emmanuel Macron emphasized the enduring partnership between France and the United States and their shared goal of building "a solid and long-standing peace." Macron was in Washington to bridge differences over Ukraine and he stressed that any peace deal must not equate to a Ukrainian surrender, contrasting with Trump's push for a swift ceasefire that might involve territorial concessions to Russia. This is always the case with France. When nothing is working well, France talks of how "the USA and France will always stand on the same side of history."

The United Kingdom, from which the United States broke free 250 years ago, also cannot fathom life without America. The shared culture, language, elements of British Common Law that permeate American jurisprudence, and cooperation on intelligence have made the UK a trusted friend of the United States. But America doesn't seem to need the UK as much as London needs Washington—and this reality is driving Westminster to act. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who shares nothing in common with Trump ideologically, is making the trip to Washington. The visit is set for later this week, with Starmer aiming to address issues like Ukraine, trade, and European security amid Trump's push for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal and potential tariffs on UK goods.

Each European nation seems to act like fawning teenagers obsessed with the star quarterback of their high school football team, America. Washington's attractiveness is invariably driven by two factors—trade and security. However, President Trump is the first leader who doesn't find Europe to be an attractive partner anymore. In his thinking, Europe has cleverly milked America's largesse by tricking Washington into ponying up the lion's share of providing a security blanket over the EU.

For NATO's common-funded budgets—which cover headquarters operations, the military command structure, shared infrastructure projects like radar systems and such—the U.S. contributed about 16% as of 2024 and into 2025. However, NATO's Article 5 protections mean that all countries will rush to help a NATO member who has been attacked under the principle that an attack on one is the same as an attack on all. America spends $967 billion on defense annually. In contrast, Germany spends $97 billion, the UK $82 billion, and Poland $35 billion. In a war situation, NATO members expect America to protect them to its full might, unrelated to NATO budgets. This assurance is what Europeans seek, a super lever with an outsized reach. For Germany, it is tantamount to saying that they get the same protections that Americans get for spending only ten percent of what America spends.

For 80 years, Europe has cleverly manipulated to seal America's support by promoting the "shared values" of liberal democracy, commitment to freedom and human rights, and a rules-based international order - in the process, becoming wealthier and wealthier. It is these shared values that bound the West to resist (and even topple) authoritarian regimes in Ukraine in 2014, Georgia, and Romania. It is these shared values that have resulted in millions of deaths during the last 30 years, from Serbia to Kosovo to Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, and other countries in the Middle East.

The problem for Europe is that President Trump sees that defending these values and going to war in other nations to promote them has only caused more strife and death. The MAGA movement passionately opposes interfering in foreign governments based on these loosely defined, primarily ideological values. Trump recognizes that America—$36 trillion in debt and suffering constant trade deficits with every European nation—needs to change course quickly. His effort to effectively shut down USAID and its soft power of attempting to influence other nations is an excellent example of how America has changed course, shocking Europe. The MAGA promise is to end conflict, strike lucrative deals, and bring back jobs, manufacturing, and economic activity to America—while boosting the economies of its trading partners. Russia has trillions of dollars in untapped resources. Saudi Arabia, too. Traditionally, America and Europe were willing to isolate Russia and Saudi Arabia because of their "inferior" values. Trump's transactional approach means that he doesn't care as long as America comes out ahead.

A breakup between Europe and the United States is imminent. America will survive the breakup just fine, but not so for Europe. For starters, Europe wants to continue to fund Ukraine to fight against Russia. That is not likely to turn out well.

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