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Analysts Warn Oil Market May Be Too Optimistic

Brent crude was trading near $72.45 a barrel on Monday, far below its wartime peak of more than $188 in April.

Photo by Maksym Kaharlytskyi / Unsplash

Oil prices have retreated close to levels seen before the U.S.-Iran conflict, but analysts warn that markets may be underestimating ongoing supply risks, according to CNBC.

Brent crude was trading near $72.45 a barrel on Monday, far below its wartime peak of more than $188 in April. However, analysts said shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains far from normal despite the ceasefire.

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High insurance costs, concerns over sea mines and uncertainty surrounding the peace agreement continue to discourage many shipping companies from returning to the key energy route.

CNBC reported that analysts also expect Iran to continue seeking greater influence over shipping in the strait, even if a formal toll system is unlikely.

Strategists from Tufton Investment Management, Energy Aspects and BNP Paribas said rebuilding global oil inventories could support prices in the coming months. The report added that insurers are unlikely to reduce premiums until the ceasefire proves durable and shipping conditions stabilize.

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