Can Kamala Harris's rising favorability among Democrats translate into broader electoral success? According to the latest TIPP Poll of 1,488 Americans completed last Friday, Harris outshines President Biden on all key election issues. However, this advantage is limited to Democrats, as independents remain unconvinced.
Following his forced exit from the race, President Biden's job approval rating remains at 37% in August, unchanged from early July.
Since Harris was anointed by President Biden and the Democratic leadership, skirting the primary process, the American media has been portraying her favorably. They have yet to examine her record. Regardless of whether it's the honeymoon bounce or a relief rally, she surpasses Biden on all metrics.
Moreover, the bounce comes primarily from disillusioned Democrats who had exited or were on the verge of exiting but are now returning to the Democratic fold. It does not impact independents, a key voting bloc.
The data reveals a stark truth: adopting the Biden Basement strategy or simply running out the clock is a risky move. Can cloaking her policy positions really help Harris expand her voter base? The numbers suggest otherwise.
Further, the data illustrates the difficulty of decoupling her candidacy from Biden's failed presidency in the next 90 days. They are two peas in a pod.
Favorability
Interestingly, Americans see Harris more favorably than Biden by a margin of 42% to 38%, resulting in a net favorability of -4% for Harris, starkly contrasting Biden’s -17%.
By party, Harris beats Biden 84% to 75% among Democrats. Both share low favorability ratings among independents (Biden 26%, Harris 31%).
Job Approval
Regarding job approval, Harris’s job approval as the VP is 41% compared to Biden's 37%, resulting in a net approval of -5 points for Harris, a significant difference from Biden’s -18 points.
Eight in ten (82%) Democrats approve of her job performance, compared to 72% for Biden. Interestingly, she is doing only slightly better among independents, 28% to 25%.
Issues
President Biden’s grades on different issues continue to be poor. Notice the following in the chart below:
- Biden gets good grades (A or B) from fewer than 30% on all issues.
- On six issues, one-half or more give him failing grades (D or F)
- He flunks miserably on the three top issues for Americans: Economy (29% good, 54% poor), immigration (23% good, 56% poor), and crime (25% good, 53% poor)
We evaluated Harris’s performance on key election issues: the economy, immigration, and crime. Here’s how she fares:
- On the economy, 34% of Americans give her good grades, but 43% rate her poorly.
- Regarding immigration, 30% approve of her performance, while 48% disapprove.
- On crime, 32% commend her efforts, whereas 46% grade her harshly.
Economy
The chart below compares the share of Americans giving good grades (A or B) to Biden and Harris for their efforts related to the economy.
- Overall, Harris does better by six points (34% to 28%).
- Most of her good ratings come from Democrats (69% compared to Biden’s 55%).
- She does only slightly better among independents, by three points (23% to 20%).
Immigration
The media is debating whether Biden assigned her the responsibility of managing the border as the border czar, possibly with the ulterior motive of distancing her candidacy from the border situation. However, the data shows that this debate is moot since only a small share of Americans give both Biden (23%) and Harris (30%) good grades.
Given her status as the Party nominee, it’s no surprise that Democrats view her more favorably than Biden (60% to 47%). This 'honeymoon effect' boosts her ratings among Democrats but fails to significantly sway independents, highlighting a critical challenge for her campaign.
Crime
On the critical issue of fighting crime, Harris receives positive grades from 33% of Americans for her work, compared to Biden’s 25%. Again, 65% of Democrats give her better grades than 49% for Biden. Notice that both Biden and Harris perform poorly among independents, with only a 5-point difference (Biden 16%, Harris 21%).
Overall Performance
Nearly four in ten (37%) give good grades for Harris’s performance as VP compared to 30% for Biden as President.
Three-fourths of Democrats (74%) see her in a positive light, compared to Biden’s 59%. Interestingly, 26% of Democrats don't see her positively or are unsure, which is a weakness for Harris.
Independents view both Biden and Harris similarly—Harris (25%) and Biden (21%).
President Biden's job approval rating remains steady at 37%, underscoring his ongoing struggles. While Kamala Harris outperforms him on key issues such as the economy, immigration, and crime, her appeal is largely confined to Democrats. Despite media efforts to bolster her image as the new Democratic nominee, she continues to struggle with independents. To secure the White House, Harris must broaden her appeal beyond the Democratic base. Will she rise to the challenge or falter in the face of mounting pressure?
