President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are in a statistical tie in voters' preferences for the 2024 presidential election, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows, representing more bad news for Biden's and the Democrats' hopes of holding the White House.
The national online I&I/TIPP Poll, taken from Nov. 1-3 from 1,242 voters, has a +/-2.8 percentage point margin of error. Specifically, poll participants were asked: "If the presidential election were held today, and the following were the candidates, for whom would you vote?"
This poll gauged the head-to-head competition between the two leading candidates, Biden and Trump, and included no other names apart from "other," "not sure," and "prefer not to answer.
Among those taking the poll, 43% answered "Joe Biden, the Democrat," while 41% answered "Donald Trump, the Republican." Another 9% responded "other," while 6% said "not sure" and 1% "prefer not to answer."
Given the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.8 percentage points, the poll essentially represents a dead heat. But the demographic breakdown of responses holds some surprises.
For instance, Democrats (88% Biden, 6% Trump, 3% other) strongly prefer Biden, while not surprisingly, Republicans (86% Trump, 7% Biden, 5% other) almost equally strongly prefer Trump. So independents, who make up more than a third of the electorate, could be the tie-breaker, depending on turnout: They break 34% in favor of Trump, 32% for Biden.
By region, Biden holds a clear lead in the Northeast (46% Biden, 38% Trump) and the West (45% Biden, 35% Trump), but is losing in the Midwest (38% Biden, 44% Trump) and in a virtual dead-heat in the South (44% Biden, 43% Trump).
Some numbers jump out as particularly significant.
Trump has hefty leads with women (45% Trump, 35% Biden), white voters (47% Trump, 37% Biden), and among all those earning $75,000 or less (average 45% Trump, 36% Biden).
By contrast, black and Hispanic voters (Biden 61% support, Trump 23%), those earning more than $75,000 (56% support Biden, just 33% Trump), and men (51% Biden, 36% Trump) show there are sharp cleavages within major demographic sub-groups.
These splits extend even to differences between cities and less-developed areas. Urban areas (58% Biden, 31% Trump), suburbs (42% Trump, 38% Biden) and rural regions (51% Trump, 31% Biden) show that Biden is winning inside America's cities — but not the suburbs or rural countryside.
Likewise, among age groups, Biden loses all but one. Of those aged 25-44, 54% support Biden, while just 35% support Trump. The 18-24 cohort support Trump over Biden by 40%-34%, those 45-64 by 46%-37%, and those over 65+ are knotted at 45%-45%.
But that wasn't our the poll question.
I&I/TIPP also asked the same question, adding already-announced third-party candidates lawyer and activist Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and author, former professor and activist Cornel West.
The difference isn't great.
Both Biden and Trump lose votes with the two leftist activists. Overall, their share of the vote drops to 37% for Trump, 39% for Biden, still a two-percentage-point gap. RFK Jr. gets 9% of the vote, while West garners 2%.
But it's still a dead-heat, statistically speaking, between Biden and Trump.
The only question is: Will both Biden and Trump make it to the finish line?
First come the Democratic and GOP primaries, now just two months away. But also awaiting Biden are growing suspicions that, due to advanced years and apparent mental impairment, he is no longer capable of fulfilling presidential duties.
More damaging are possible looming and highly credible charges of public corruption by Biden and his son Hunter, with millions of dollars of payments from overseas sources in China, Russia and Ukraine already verified. If proved beyond a doubt, Biden likely would be impeached.
And then there's the economy. While the administration has repeatedly bragged about the supposed success of "Bidenomics," the economy is in fact not improving for most Americans, who now suffer from inflation, job insecurity and declining real wages.
As for Trump, he has been indicted four times for a variety of alleged crimes, and one of those trials is already underway in New York. Still, supporters and others note the highly irregular nature of such a large number of felony charges being filed against a prospective candidate by officials serving in his opponent's government.
Even so, a conviction and a prison sentence in any of the trials scheduled for New York, Washington, D.C., Georgia and Florida could derail Trump's 2024 presidential hopes.
All that said, it's still a fact that both Trump and Biden have huge leads in preference polls for the upcoming primaries and 2024 election.
The I&I/TIPP Poll shows that, among Republican respondents, Trump still receives 60% support. No.2, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, is way behind at 13% backing from the party.
DeSantis is followed in turn by entrepreneur-author-activist Vivek Ramaswamy (7%), former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (5%), then by a bottom-tier of candidates including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchison, all at 3% or less support.
"Someone else" takes 2% support, while "not sure" gets 7%.
Biden also holds his huge lead within his party, at least as things now stand.
The I&I/TIPP Poll gives Biden overwhelming 72% support in the primaries, with declared challengers Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips and author-activist-politician Marianne Williamson each receiving 4% of the potential vote.
But what if he doesn't run, as many now think might be the case? Even some in his own party are pushing Biden to walk away.
In recent days, a New York Times/Sienna Poll set off major alarms among Democrats, as a Times story noted Trump now leads Biden in five of six key swing states.
Significantly, Biden swept all six states in 2020. Trump now leads Biden by 10 points in Nevada, six points in Georgia, five points in both Arizona and Michigan, and four points in Pennsylvania. Biden's sole lead is in Wisconsin, where he beats Trump by two points. Taken together, Trump's lead is 48-44 in all six swing states.
Meanwhile, a CBS Poll found that Biden is losing his once-robust support, from young, black and Hispanic voters.
“Those financial factors may be hurting Mr. Biden with black and Hispanic voters, key parts of the Democratic coalition, who are not convinced they would be helped financially if he wins a second term,” the CBS News poll said. “Hispanic voters are much likelier to say their finances would improve under Trump than Mr. Biden. And most black voters do not expect their finances to change if Mr. Biden wins again.”
Trump's support among blacks, the report noted, had jumped by 22 points, something the Times described as "unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times."
Fearing an electoral cataclysm, key Biden supporters are abandoning ship. One of former President Barack Obama's key advisers and chief strategist, David Axelrod, is letting it be known: Time for Biden to go.
"If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party," Axelrod said on X, formerly Twitter. "What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it's in HIS best interest or the country's?"
What if Biden doesn't run? The I&I/TIPP Poll shows no logical replacement has a significant edge. When asked who they would support if Biden didn't run, Democrats backed the following: Vice President Kamala Harris (26%); former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former First Lady Michelle Obama, all at 10%; Calif. Gov. Gavin Newsom (9%); Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg (8%); and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (6%).
No other Democrat gets more than 3%. It's likely to be an interesting 2024.
I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past five presidential elections.
Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.
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