For Trump, Approval Is All About The Base, As Dems, Independent Voters Cool: I&I/TIPP Poll

With no relief from high energy costs, ongoing concerns over the simmering U.S.-Iran conflict and a widening political schism among voters, President Donald Trump's favorability continued to slump in early May, the latest I&I/TIPP Poll shows. As the U.S. nears the midpoint of 2026, can Trump turn around voters' negative opinions in time to help his party win the 2026 midterm election?

Each month, the I&I/TIPP Poll asks a series of questions about the president's leadership performance, starting with: "Overall, is your opinion of Donald Trump generally favorable, generally unfavorable, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?"

May's national online I&I/TIPP Poll was taken from April 28 through May 1. A total of 1,464 adults around the country took the poll, which has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.

Among those responding, 38% answered "favorable," versus 54% who answered "unfavorable," for a net -16 percentage points.

That compares to April's 39% "favorable" and 53% "unfavorable," for a net -14 percentage points, and March's gap of half that: -7 percentage points.

So there's clearly recent erosion in the president's favorability ratings. That's particularly visible among Democrats and independent voters, who have soured in recent months on Trump's leadership.

A second question each month gauges voters' approval of how the president's handling the job: “In general, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president, or are you not familiar enough to say one way or the other?”

And once more, his overall ratings have weakened, with just 38% saying they approve of the job he's doing, while 54% disapprove, for a net negative 16% approval rating.

By comparison, in April, Trump's approval among all voters stood at 39%. while his disapproval rating was 53%, for a net negative of minus 14%. Why? The main reason seems to be that the president's approval has been in a noticeable slump among Dems and indie voters since the start of this year.

Indeed, he gets virtually no backing now from Democrats — approval at a rock-bottom 8% approval, vs. 87% disapproval — while indie voters give him 30% approval, just half of their 60% disapproval rating.

Despite non-stop controversy in the media over Trump's tenure in office, GOP voters remain strongly in Trump's camp, giving him 75% approval, vs. 18% disapproval.

What about gauging the strength of Trump's leadership?

To answer that, I&I/TIPP asks a third question each month: "How would you describe the leadership that President Trump is providing for the country?" Respondents are given five choices ranging from "very strong," "strong," and "moderate," to "weak" and "very weak," along with "not sure."

As the data show, including all voters Trump earns just 38% scores for either very strong (22%) or strong leadership (16%), but that gets swamped by the 45% who describe his leadership as either weak (10%) or very weak (35%). Moderate responses came in at 15%.

Yet again, his Republican base is his bulwark. Among GOP voters, 73% say Trump's leadership is either very strong (46%) or strong (27%), with another 17% calling his leadership moderate. Only 10% call Trump's leadership weak or very weak.

All others are overall neutral to positive (independents), or strongly negative (Democrats). Just 30% of independents give Trump either very strong (14%) or strong (15%) grades, while 21% call his leadership moderate. But the weak (12%) to very weak (36%) grades total 48%.

Democrats? Very sour on Trump now. Just 9% give him either very strong (5%) or strong (4%) on leadership. Those saying "moderate" are also in the single digits: 9%. But 78% say his leadership is either weak (13%) or very weak (65%).

Each month, I&I/TIPP Poll also produces its proprietary Leadership Index, giving the president an overall score based on all the data.

What does May's I&I/TIPP Leadership Index, below, show? That Trump again remains fairly solid within his own party, but is weakening noticeably among others. That has pulled down the overall index from close to 50 late last year to a current overall 42.6 reading right now. And the trend isn't favorable.

As always, in May I&I/TIPP also asked respondents to assign grades for 15 separate policy areas, using the familiar school grading system of A, B, C, D and F. They also assign a grade for the overall job he's doing.

It isn't pretty.

Overall in May, Trump received 36% As and Bs for his presidential performance, down from 37% in April and 38% in March. But as the cliche goes, the devils are in the details. In May, just 8% of Dems gave Trump top marks, the same as in April but down sharply from 12% in March.

Independents, meanwhile, were a small bright spot for Trump in May: 29% gave him the highest grades, a small rise from 27% in April and from 21% in March.

Republicans' top grades fell to 69%, a still-strong reading, down from 71% in April. Still, Trump's As and Bs in May put him 5 percentage points below March's level.

Which of the 15 policy areas received Trump's best scores (as measured by As and Bs) and which received his worst scores?

Far and away the best was 43% for “Handling immigration and border security,” followed by “Handling violence and crime in the country” (35%), “Restoring America’s core values” and “Handling the U.S.-Iran conflict,” both at 34%. All of those scores, however, were lower than in April.

The lowest scores (in ascending order) included "Handling inflation and the cost of living" (25%), "Handling healthcare" and "Handling the Russia-Ukraine war," both at 30%, and "Handling government spending" (31%). All of these scores also were lower than the month before.

No question, President Trump's leadership status is under pressure. His hyperkinetic style can be bracing to many, but a bit scary for others. With oil prices hovering near $100 a barrel, the Iran war entering a third month, a widening spat with the European Union, and the growing possibility of action against Cuba, many, it seems, would like a respite from Trump's hectic global policy pace.

There may be warning signs in the fact that inflation, health care, and government spending are all at the bottom of the list when it comes to voters assessing Trump's leadership. Upticks in inflation, continuing rises in healthcare costs, and soaring government spending will all be fodder for Trump's Democratic foes.

In March, consumer price inflation on a year-over-year basis rose just under 3.3%, up sharply from February's 2.4%. Out-of-control government spending added $1.2 trillion to the fast-growing pile of U.S. federal debt, now at $39 trillion, in just the last six months.

Fixing healthcare will be a massive undertaking, requiring at minimum the repeal of Obamacare, the cause of the U.S. healthcare cost spiral. Trump has already started work on reforms, and has aggressively tackled massive healthcare fraud, but whether those efforts bear fruit and cut health insurance costs by the midterms is an open question.

The point is, as this month's I&I/TIPP presidential approval poll shows, how voters perceive Trump's strengths and weaknesses as a leader will very much impact the 2026 midterm elections, with control of Congress hanging in the balance.

How Trump is seen as a leader might also determine whether his last two years are spent making badly needed reforms to how government works, or fighting off repeated impeachment efforts by an angry Democrat-led Congress.

I&I/TIPP publishes timely, unique, and informative data each month on topics of public interest. TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.

Terry Jones is an editor of Issues & Insights. His four decades of journalism experience include serving as national issues editor, economics editor, and editorial page editor for Investor’s Business Daily.

📊 Market Mood — Monday, May 4, 2026

🟩 Markets Hold Steady as Reopening Efforts Begin
Futures were mixed as the U.S. moved to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

🟧 Oil Risks Persist Despite Navigation Push
Energy markets stayed tense as mine threats and restricted routes kept supply fragile.

🟦 Earnings Strength Continues to Support Sentiment
Solid results from major firms helped offset geopolitical and inflation concerns.

🟨 Policy and Fiscal Questions Add New Layer
Treasury financing plans and tariff fallout introduced fresh uncertainty into the outlook.

🗓️ Key Economic Events — Monday, May 4, 2026

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