On the morning of February 28, Iran launched the largest coordinated aerial assault the Persian Gulf had ever seen. Within 48 hours, 350 ballistic missiles and 541 drones were in the air. Regional air defenses absorbed the blow. Four weeks later, the launches continue, but at a fraction of the early pace. TIPP Insights analyzed 28 days of launch data across both weapons categories. Three patterns stood out, and each one offers a clearer picture of how this conflict is evolving.
I. 28 Days In, Gulf Defenses Are Holding The Line
TIPP Insights analysis of daily launch data shows a clear trend. Iran has fired over 1,300 ballistic missiles and nearly 3,700 drones at targets across the Gulf and Israel over the past four weeks. The first 48 hours were the worst: 350 missiles on Day 1, 541 drones on Day 2. Most were intercepted. Since then, daily volumes have dropped significantly. Iran is still firing, averaging 80 to 150 combined strikes a day, with occasional surges. But the opening barrage was the peak, and the trend line is moving in the right direction.
II. Iran's Missile Stocks Are Thinning. But Drones Are Filling the Gap.
TIPP Insights analysis of weekly launch totals reveals two very different trajectories. In Week 1, Iran fired 795 ballistic missiles. By Week 4, that number was down to 155. That's an 80% drop. The expensive stuff is running out, and it's hard to replace. Drones, though? Totally different picture. Week 4 still saw 723 drone launches, about 59% of the Week 1 peak. They're cheap, they're simple to build, and Iran has clearly decided to lean on them for the long haul.
III. Iran's Real Weapon Isn't Missiles. It's Math.
TIPP Insights analysis of the daily ratio tells the real story. For every missile Iran fires now, it sends 4 to 8 drones alongside it. On Day 1, the ratio was roughly 1 to 1. By the end of Week 4, it's consistently 4 to 1 or higher. A single drone costs maybe $30,000. The interceptor missile used to shoot it down? Somewhere between $1 million and $3 million. That's the whole game. So far, the defenders are winning it.
The data paints a consistent picture. Iran's most potent weapons are being used up faster than they can be replaced. Drone volumes remain high, but interception systems across the Gulf have adapted. The cost equation favors the attacker on paper, but four weeks in, the defenses are holding and the trend lines are moving in the right direction. What happens next will depend on diplomacy as much as firepower. The April 6 deadline looms. But for now, the numbers suggest the worst of the barrage is behind us.
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editor-tippinsights@technometrica.com
