President Trump's Social Media Platform Has A Good Chance of Success

President Trump's Social Media Platform Has A Good Chance of Success

This article discusses the desire of Americans to join former President Trump's new social media platform.

Raghavan Mayur
Raghavan Mayur

Some of President Trump's detractors are already nervous and are attempting to talk his efforts down.

Here's one example, a story that appeared in Business Insider on Saturday headlined, " Trump's plan to start his own social media platform is doomed to failure, say experts."

Data trumps expert opinion. We present our data here and invite you to decide for yourself.

Likelihood Of Joining The Platform

Four out of ten (40%) in our latest TIPP Poll conducted late March-early April said they are likely to join President Trump's social media platform.

• 23% are very likely,
• 17% are somewhat likely,
• 11% are not very likely,
• 41% are not at all likely, and
• 9% are unsure

In February, a TIPP Poll showed that nearly one in two (49%) thought that Twitter overreacted by permanently suspending President Trump.

Twitter's move had a chilling effect on many Americans.  Many conservatives and Republicans wondered about their fate if this could happen to a sitting President.

The official position of Twitter is that it is fair and does not engage in political censorship.

At least, to most Americans, it does not seem to be the case. In the February poll, 40% thought Twitter favored liberals.  17% thought it favored conservatives, and 33% believed neither.

Our latest survey conducted in late March-early April shows that a new Trump platform will likely be a refuge for a large share of conservatives (61%), with smaller percentages of moderates (23%) and liberals (16%).

The platform is also likely to appeal to younger age groups; the desire to join decreases with age which may seem counterintuitive because we assume people become increasingly conservative the older they become.  Also, the platform may provide an opportunity for President Trump to reach out to younger people.

Will Trump's Platform Trigger Twitter Exodus?

We asked the subset of people who intend to join Trump's new platform if they would abandon Twitter. 39% are likely.  Many in this group (33%) don't have a Twitter account.

• 23% are very likely,
• 16% are somewhat likely,
• 12% are not very likely,
• 13% are not at all likely, and
• 33% do not have an account.

By ideology, Twitter cancellations look very similar.

  • 40% among conservatives,
  • 36% among moderates, and
  • 44% among liberals.

One reason for the high numbers for moderates and liberals is that they are more likely to have a Twitter account than conservatives.

If President Trump launches his social media platform, it has good chance of success, no matter what the media and its experts say.

The United States has a Twitter problem. Market forces, public opinion, and regulators will have to resolve it sooner or later.  tippinsights will be providing critical data for this crucial debate.

About the survey

TechnoMetrica conducted The TIPP Poll, an online survey from March 31 to April 3.  The nationwide study had a sample of 1,436 Americans, 18 or older, and TechnoMetrica's network of panel partners provided the study sample. Upon the study completion, TechnoMetrica weighted the study dataset by gender, age, race, education, and geographical region to mirror known benchmarks such as the U.S. Census. The credibility interval (CI) for the survey is +/- 2.8 percentage points, meaning the study is accurate to within ± 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, had all Americans been surveyed. Subgroups based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region have higher credibility intervals due to smaller sample sizes.


TIPP Takes

Iran Nuclear Chief Says Natanz Site Hit By "Terrorist" Act

  • Saturday, Iran's President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated new centrifuges at the Natanz site, essential to its uranium enrichment program.
  • A spokesman for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran (AEOI), Behrouz Kamalvandi, said an "incident" had occurred with the power network.
  • AEOI head Ali Akbar Salehi described the incident as "sabotage" and "nuclear terrorism."
  • Haaretz newspaper said the incident could be assumed to be an Israeli cyberattack.

US Defense Chief In Israel Amid Iran Nuclear Talks

  • Loyd Austin told his host, Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz, that Washington views their alliance as central to regional security and "enduring and ironclad."

EU Accuses Russia And China Of Blocking United Response To Myanmar Military Coup

  • According to the European Union's top diplomat, Russia and China are hampering a united international response to Myanmar's military coup.
  • China and Russia both have ties to Myanmar's armed forces, as the first and second-largest suppliers of weapons to the country.
  • EU foreign direct investment in Myanmar totaled $US700 million ($918 million) in 2019, compared with $US19 billion from China.

Kyrgyzstan President Set To Win New Constitutional Powers

  • Kyrgyzstan voters went to the polls on Sunday for a constitutional referendum that would expand President Sadyr Zhaparov's powers while also allowing him to run for office a second time.
  • Kyrgyzstan, a neighbor of China, and ex-soviet bloc member, has been increasingly becoming reliant on its larger neighbor.

Kyrgyzstan Thanks China

  • Chinese Ambassador Du Dewen to Kyrgyzstan, "In the context of huge domestic demand for a new vaccine, China's free aid to Kyrgyzstan fully demonstrates the deep friendship of the Chinese government and people toward the government and people of Kyrgyzstan."
  • "Kyrgyzstan is ready to further intensify cooperation and work together with China in the fight against the epidemic," Prime Minister Ulukbek Maripov said.

Tippinsights draws on various sources, but our public opinion research generates the majority of our content.  Please contact us if you like the content on tippinsights.com and have a research idea or want to collaborate! The TIPP Poll holds the coveted distinction of being the most accurate poll of the twenty-first century, correctly predicting the winner of the last five U.S. presidential elections.

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