Brazil’s Monetary Hangover: Why Lula’s Fiscal Push Keeps Interest Rates High
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration is publicly frustrated with high interest rates, but the numbers tell a simpler story
Economy
TIPP Poll data on Americans' perception of the economy is the foundation for this section. Topics covered include U.S. consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, job market, economic growth, recession, financial stress, economic outlook, personal financial outlook, federal economic policies. We also cover trade, taxes, and debt. Our TIPP economic optimism index, financial stress index, job sensitivity metrics, and other polling on current economic issues drive the discussions.
G7 Leaders Meet Amid Tensions Over Iran And Ukraine
Trump is expected to urge allies to help secure and reopen the strait, with Britain and France already expressing support for post-conflict maritime operations
Crude Prices Drop Sharply Following Reports On New Iran War Deal
Brent crude dropped about 5% to below $83 per barrel, while U.S. crude fell more than 5% to around $80.
Stocks Surge As Iran War Deal Lifts Global Markets
Investors welcomed confirmation from President Donald Trump that an initial agreement had been reached and that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted
Xi’s Lost Decade
A real estate bust the size of Japan’s, not yet halfway through. Xi holds the one tool that could break the spiral, and won’t use it.
The Pig Doesn't Lie
The pig the Party once promised would stay cheap now costs more to raise than it sells for.
U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rebounds After Three-Month Slide
According to the University of Michigan's latest survey, consumer sentiment increased 9% in early June to a preliminary reading of 48.9
AI, Creative Destruction, And The Politicization of Economic Change
The debate is often framed as a struggle between technological progress and employment
Pentagon Weighs Scaling Back Military Assets In Europe: Report
Planned cuts reportedly include lowering the number of F-16 and F-15E fighter jets from about 150 to 100, reducing maritime reconnaissance aircraft from 26 to 15, and withdrawing eight aerial refueling tanker aircraft.
World Bank Says The Iran War Is Throttling Global Growth
The lender cuts its 2026 forecast to the weakest since the pandemic and warns of a deeper slump if energy supply worsens.
Appeals Court Allows U.S. To Continue Collecting 10% Tariffs
The decision allows the tariffs, imposed in February under Section 122 of the Trade Act, to remain in effect as the court reviews whether the administration acted within its legal authority.
World Bank Cuts Global Growth Forecast To 2.5%
The World Bank cautioned that global growth could slow dramatically to as little as 1.3% if the conflict triggers broader financial market disruptions or prolonged supply-chain pressures.
U.S. Jobless Claims Rise Slightly But Remain Historically Low
The Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims rose by 4,000 to 229,000, slightly above economists’ expectations.
Iran Oil Shock Pushes US Business Costs Higher
The Producer Price Index, a key measure of business input costs, rose 1.1% during the month. The annual rate climbed to 6.5%, marking its highest level in more than three years
Inflation Jumps To A Three-Year High On The Energy Shock
May prices rose 4.2 percent from a year earlier, almost entirely on fuel, leaving the Fed boxed in before next week's meeting.
Wall Street Tumbles As Inflation And War Hit At Once
The Dow sheds more than 900 points after a three-year-high inflation print collides with the Gulf escalation.