The Fed Decides Today In Warsh's First Test As Chair
A fourth straight hold is all but certain, so the focus falls on the dot plot, the dropped easing bias, and a new chair's tone.
Economy
TIPP Poll data on Americans' perception of the economy is the foundation for this section. Topics covered include U.S. consumer confidence, consumer sentiment, job market, economic growth, recession, financial stress, economic outlook, personal financial outlook, federal economic policies. We also cover trade, taxes, and debt. Our TIPP economic optimism index, financial stress index, job sensitivity metrics, and other polling on current economic issues drive the discussions.
The Ignoramus-in-Chief Declares: “I Love the Inflation”
Of course, the actual goals that politicians and their sponsors really have in mind often diverge radically from what they tell the public.
Raising Interest Rates Does Not Counter Inflation
To form a definition, it is helpful to go back, if possible, to when the subject of investigation emerged.
‘END IT NOW’: MAGA Demands Trump End Visa Program That Takes Jobs from Americans
The Optional Practical Training program, created in 1992, allows foreign students to remain in the United States to work for nearly four years after graduation
Tariffs Return To Center Stage As Iran Conflict Recedes
Trump warned that he could impose a 100% tariff on French wine and Champagne if France continues enforcing its digital services tax on major American technology companies
US-Iran Peace Progress Helps Push Treasury Yields Lower
The decline followed the announcement of a provisional peace framework between the United States and Iran, which could extend the ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping
How Does The US-Iran Deal Affect Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh
The labor market has strengthened, while oil and gasoline prices have declined following the agreement to halt hostilities and reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Sound Money, Artificial Intelligence, And The Pope
The present unsound money regime has abetted vast malinvestment in the digital revolution now in its AI phase
The Fear Of The Signal: Why The State Urgently Wants To Bind Prediction Markets
Predictive markets are experiencing a massive paradigm shift. They are rapidly transitioning from a niche internet subculture into a powerhouse financial category
April Money Supply Growth Hit A 49-Month High. And Prices Soared.
April’s increase is also a big change from April 2025 when the year-over-year growth rate was a mere 1.8 percent
Iran Will Fall Within The Year: Amit Segal And Josh Hammer
Iran is losing $450 million [a day] through the blockade in the Strait of Hormuz
Brazil’s Monetary Hangover: Why Lula’s Fiscal Push Keeps Interest Rates High
President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s administration is publicly frustrated with high interest rates, but the numbers tell a simpler story
G7 Leaders Meet Amid Tensions Over Iran And Ukraine
Trump is expected to urge allies to help secure and reopen the strait, with Britain and France already expressing support for post-conflict maritime operations
Crude Prices Drop Sharply Following Reports On New Iran War Deal
Brent crude dropped about 5% to below $83 per barrel, while U.S. crude fell more than 5% to around $80.
Stocks Surge As Iran War Deal Lifts Global Markets
Investors welcomed confirmation from President Donald Trump that an initial agreement had been reached and that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would be lifted