The pause Beijing placed on its sweeping rare-earth export controls runs for one year, until November 10, 2026, and buyers in EVs, defense, and AI hardware are watching the calendar. The leverage is intact, since China controls roughly 90% of global rare-earth processing. Some relief is in sight, as new magnet manufacturing capacity coming online in the summer of 2026 will begin to reduce reliance on China, though self-sufficiency remains a long road. The practical message for procurement is that the window to diversify before the truce lapses is measured in months, not years.
Sources: CSIS, IEA, China Briefing.
