The Section 1245 File

Northrop Grumman builds the F-35's center fuselage in Palmdale, California, a district represented by Democrat George Whitesides, who serves on the House Armed Services Committee.

In Connecticut, Pratt & Whitney builds the engine, and Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal serves on Senate Armed Services. The parts come together at Lockheed Martin's final assembly plant in Fort Worth, Texas, represented by Republican Congressman Craig Goldman, while Texas Senator Ted Cruz serves on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

Lockheed says the F-35 program supports 317,000 American jobs. Lawmakers from both parties have a stake in those jobs, and any F-35 sale to Turkey has to get through them.

Turkey wants at least 40 F-35s. These fighters fly at 1,200 miles per hour, penetrate heavily defended airspace and identify enemy threats while sharing targeting information with other American and NATO aircraft. Trump supports the deal, as does the U.S. military, which wants Turkey flying them alongside its NATO allies.

The obstacle is the Russian S-400, which Turkey purchased from Moscow in 2019. Washington removed Ankara from the F-35 program because the Russian system could collect intelligence about America's most advanced fighter.

Earlier this month, I made a five-day, 11-event tour of İzmir, Eskişehir and Ankara. At my discussion at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Türkiye (TEPAV) in Ankara, the American law blocking F-35 sales to Turkey went up on a big screen.

That law, Section 1245 of the 2020 National Defense Authorization Act, requires certification that Turkey "no longer possesses" the S-400 system and associated equipment, materials and personnel.

For now, Turkey keeps the S-400 in storage. American officials have explored disabling the system or placing it under U.S. control at Incirlik Air Base.

During July's NATO summit in Ankara, Trump announced, “We're going to be taking the sanctions off,” and said his administration would consider selling Turkey F-35s. But on July 22, Trump’s State Department told Congress that Ankara had not met the legal requirements.

Republican Senator Jim Risch has pressed Turkey to end its possession of the S-400, while Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen and Republican Senator Mike Rounds support F-35 sales if Turkey removes the Russian system.

I would be surprised if any American administration waived away the S-400 problem while Turkey still possessed the Russian system.

Removing the Russian system from Turkey would strengthen NATO, clear the legal obstacle to an F-35 sale and poke a stick in the eye of Vladimir Putin.

Inside Turkey — Pressure Rising

Turkey's annual inflation is still around 30 percent.

In several meetings, I raised Iran's inflation rate, which had climbed above 70 percent. Turkish journalists and leaders responded that they know how that goes.

I also found little affection for the Iranian regime among the Turks I spoke with, and all of them wanted the regime gone. That is understandable in a country that shares a border with Iran and has to deal with whoever governs Tehran.

Still, disinformation and hostility toward Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu complicate U.S.-Turkey relations. At one meeting, for example, an attendee asked whether Netanyahu had used information from the Epstein files to blackmail Trump into entering the war against Iran.

Turkey controls access between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean and fields NATO's second-largest military. At the same time, Erdoğan maintains economic and diplomatic relationships with Russia, Iran and China. He has expressed interest in full membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation while insisting Turkey would remain aligned with NATO.

Erdoğan's next election has already begun

While I was in Turkey, İzmir's mayor, Cemil Tugay, formally joined Erdoğan's Justice and Development Party (AKP). Tugay had won the mayoralty in 2024 as the candidate of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), receiving about 49 percent of the vote in a city the AKP had never won, before leaving the CHP in June.

Meanwhile, Istanbul's jailed and suspended mayor, Ekrem İmamoğlu, and other opposition mayors remain imprisoned while facing criminal proceedings. In September, a court sentenced İmamoğlu to two years and one month in prison and imposed a political ban in one of those cases. Opposition leaders call the prosecutions politically motivated. Erdoğan's government maintains that the judiciary is independent.

Turkey's next presidential election is scheduled for May 2028. Under the current constitution, Erdoğan has reached his two-term limit. But parliament can open the way for another candidacy by calling an early election.

That requires 360 votes in the 600-member legislature, and Erdoğan's ruling alliance holds 326.

Even so, on October 15, presidential adviser Mehmet Uçum suggested moving the election to March or April 2028.

Washington — Pressure Steady, for Now

In Washington, the balance of power could change in the November 3 midterms.

Iran's pressure on oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has reached American gas pumps, diesel tanks and farms. In my presentations in Turkey, I noted that 47 percent of American voters named the cost of living as the most important factor in their midterm vote.

The American president conducts foreign policy, but Congress controls laws, funding and oversight, so even if Erdoğan reaches an agreement with Trump, Congress can still stop it.

Republicans currently chair the House Armed Services and Foreign Affairs committees. A Democratic House would instead put Adam Smith and Gregory Meeks in charge of those committees.

In the Senate, Republican Roger Wicker chairs Armed Services and Jim Risch leads Foreign Relations. Democratic control would put Jack Reed in charge of Armed Services, while Jeanne Shaheen's retirement leaves the Democratic leadership of Foreign Relations unsettled.

On Gaza, Turkey helped negotiate the ceasefire and joined Trump's Board of Peace, and Ankara has offered troops for an international stabilization force, training for Palestinian police and reconstruction assistance. Netanyahu, however, opposes Turkish troops in Gaza. Under the plan, Hamas must surrender its weapons as Israeli forces withdraw in verified stages.

Erdoğan has invested heavily in his relationship with Trump. Now Ankara should invest just as seriously in relationships with both parties in Congress.

The scars in parliament

At the Turkish parliament in Ankara, columns damaged during the failed July 2016 coup attempt have been preserved. Memorials stand near the places where the building was bombed.

A new Congress will undoubtedly grill Erdoğan on his crackdowns at home, even as it looks to lock arms with Ankara on regional defense.

I want stronger U.S.-Turkey relations under Republican and Democratic administrations.

For 47 years, the United States has tried to contain Iran through sanctions, diplomacy and military force without achieving lasting peace.

Washington and Ankara now have a two-year window to shift the calculus on Iran and Gaza. If they don't take it, we're looking at another decade of managing the same old fires.

Mark Pfeifle, a member of the TIPP Insights Editorial Board, served as deputy national security adviser for strategic communications and global outreach at the White House from 2007 to 2009. He runs the crisis management firm Off the Record Strategies.