By Sinan Ülgen, Project Syndicate | May 15, 2025
The dismantling of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) after more than 40 years of violence presents a historic opportunity to build a better Turkey. Safeguarding the country’s newfound freedom from PKK terrorism requires reinvigorating its democracy.
ISTANBUL – The world’s longest-running armed insurgency has come to an abrupt end. Some four decades after orchestrating its first attack against Turkish government targets, the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has decided to disband and disarm. The decision marks a turning point not only for Turkey, but for the entire Middle East.
Since its founding in the late 1970s by the now-jailed Abdullah Öcalan, the PKK was motivated primarily by the goal of establishing an independent Kurdish state, while also seeking to secure political rights for the Kurdish minority in Turkey. But several factors, both domestic and international, have apparently convinced its leaders to abandon violence.
Begin with the domestic political situation. As a two-term president, Erdoğan has made clear that he hopes to seek a third mandate, meaning that he has to find a way to amend Turkey’s constitution or to convince Parliament to back an early election bill. In either case, success would require him to secure more support than his ruling coalition, comprising his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the far-right Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), can provide. But Turkey’s third-largest party, the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM), can deliver the missing votes. The objective of enrolling DEM in the parliamentary effort to amend the constitution paved the way for the “Kurdish opening,” designed to enhance the political and cultural rights of Turkey’s Kurds. The quid pro quo was the dismantling of the PKK and an end to its terrorist campaign against the Turkish state.
The PKK’s decision to disband was also influenced by international developments, which had placed the group under severe pressure. Last December, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad – who had used the PKK as a tool to undermine Turkey – was ousted, and the new Syrian regime could not be counted on to support Kurdish efforts to destabilize Turkey.
The United States, too, is distancing itself from the PKK affiliates that once played a leading role in the fight against the Islamic State. Whereas former President Joe Biden’s administration offered near unconditional support to US-allied Kurdish groups, such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Donald Trump believes that US national interests – not least political stability in Syria – are better served by strengthening ties with Turkey.
A final, less-discussed factor shaping the PKK’s calculations was Turkey’s growing use of drone technology to strengthen border security and, more importantly, to target senior PKK commanders outside of Turkey – even deep in Iraqi territory. As this significantly weakened the PKK’s logistical and operational effectiveness, it likely prompted a fundamental reassessment of the insurgency’s prospects.
This combination of factors has created a window of opportunity for Turkey to resolve the Kurdish issue without the kind of violent campaign that fuels radicalization. But a successful transition from an era of armed struggle to one of peace and integration will require Erdoğan’s government to deliver on two fronts.
The first is transparency. The PKK’s long history of violence has understandably generated deep animosity within Turkish society. It is thus essential that the contents of negotiations between the PKK and the Turkish government – including the relevant trade-offs – are communicated clearly and openly. For example, a major consideration will be whether PKK-affiliated entities like the People’s Protection Units (YPG) in Syria will also disarm. Parliament – and, in particular, the main opposition parties within it – must play a central role in guiding this sensitive process.
The second front is democracy. This historic opening cannot succeed without genuine democratic reform, including credible steps to safeguard judicial independence and enhance freedom of speech and association.
Erdoğan’s government could secure quick wins in this area by complying with recent rulings from the European Court of Human Rights, including its demand to release Kurdish political leader Selahattin Demirtaş. At a time when Öcalan could be released, Turkey’s government would also do well to address the conditions faced by other political detainees, such as Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu and Ümit Özdağ, who leads the ultra-nationalist Victory Party.
The dismantling of the PKK presents a historic opportunity to build a better Turkey. Safeguarding the country’s newfound freedom from PKK terrorism requires strengthening its democracy more broadly. Beyond helping Turkey, such an initiative would demonstrate to violent actors across the Middle East that the end of political insurgencies can lead to lasting and inclusive peace.
Sinan Ülgen, a former Turkish diplomat, is Director of EDAM, an Istanbul-based think tank, and a senior policy fellow at Carnegie Europe.
Copyright Project Syndicate
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Trump Talks To Putin, Urges End To Ukraine ‘Bloodbath’ - TIPP Insights
President Donald Trump’s call with Russian President Vladimir Putin began Monday, the White House confirmed, as part of a renewed U.S. diplomatic push to end the war in Ukraine.
The president is expected to speak with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and NATO leaders later today. According to Politico, European officials fear Trump may either push Kyiv into an unfavorable deal or withdraw U.S. military support entirely if no progress is made.
2. Putin Refuses Full Ceasefire Despite "Excellent Call" With Trump - TIPP Insights
President Donald Trump announced Monday that Russia and Ukraine would “immediately” begin ceasefire negotiations following a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Trump called the conversation “excellent in tone” and said both sides were moving toward “an end to the war.” He also said that the Vatican had offered to host the talks and that key European leaders had been briefed.
While Trump projected optimism, Russia’s response signaled that serious obstacles remain. Ukrainian officials have not publicly responded to either account.
3. Ukraine Says Russia Plans To Launch Intercontinental Ballistic Missile - Reuters
“In order to demonstratively pressure and intimidate Ukraine, and also EU and NATO member states, the aggressor state of Russia intends to make a ‘training and combat’ launch of the RS-24 intercontinental ballistic missile from the Yars complex,” Ukraine’s military intelligence agency GUR said.
The overnight launch was ordered to be implemented from Russia’s Sverdlovsk region, the GUR agency said in a statement. It added the flight range for the missile was more than 6,200 miles.
4. Russia Adds Amnesty International To 'Undesirable' List - UPI
The Russian government announced that the nonprofit Amnesty International is no longer welcome within its borders.
The Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation claimed that while "the organization positions itself as an active conductor of human rights protection in the world," it alleges that "the London headquarters of AIL is the center of preparation of global 'Russophobic' projects, paid for by accomplices of the Kyiv regime."
5. China’s Economy Feels The Sting From Trade War - The Wall Street Journal
Figures published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed industrial production grew at a slower annual rate in April than in March, as uncertainty over tariffs squeezed Chinese factories.
Retail sales, a key gauge of consumer spending, and investment in buildings, equipment, and other fixed assets also lost steam in April compared with the previous month. Economists warned that the Chinese economy is facing big challenges, and more forceful government and central-bank stimulus will be needed this year to get growth close to Beijing’s 5% growth goal.
6. 30 Years On, Rights Groups Press China For Word Of Tibet’s Missing Panchen Lama - RFA
On May 17, 1995, just days after the Tibetan spiritual leader, the Dalai Lama, officially recognized Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th Panchen Lama, Beijing abducted the then-6-year-old boy with his family and teacher.
Their whereabouts have remained unknown, despite repeated calls by global leaders for China to disclose information about the fate of the Panchen Lama who turned 36 last month. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called on Chinese authorities to immediately release the Panchen Lama and “stop persecuting Tibetans for their religious beliefs.”
7. Biden Likely Had Cancer Throughout Presidency, Claim Medical Experts - TIPP Insights
A storm of controversy erupted Monday after a medical expert on MSNBC claimed former President Joe Biden likely had prostate cancer throughout his entire presidency.
“He did not develop it in the last 100 or 200 days,” the doctor said. “He probably had it at the start of his presidency, in 2021. I don’t think there’s any disagreement about that.” The comment fueled allegations online of a “cover-up,” led by political commentator, Laura Loomer. She accused White House doctors of hiding Biden’s condition for years and called for criminal investigations.
8. CBS News Chief Quits Amid Trump Lawsuit Over Harris Interview - TIPP Insights
CBS News President Wendy McMahon is stepping down amid mounting tensions with President Donald Trump and a $20 billion lawsuit accusing CBS and Paramount of rigging an election interview with former Vice President Kamala Harris.
“It’s become clear the company and I do not agree on the path forward,” McMahon said in a memo, according to The New York Times. Her exit follows the recent resignation of 60 Minutes Executive Producer Bill Owens, whom she had publicly supported amid the legal fallout.
9. Israel Lets Some Baby Food Into Gaza, First Aid Since March - AFP
“Today, Israel is facilitating the entry of trucks with baby food into Gaza,” foreign ministry director general Eden Bar Tal told reporters, adding that “in the coming days, Israel will facilitate the entry of dozens of aid trucks.”
Israel, pressing a newly expanded military offensive across the Gaza Strip, has faced mounting pressure including from key backer the United States to end the aid blockade it imposed on March 2.
10. Israel Orders Khan Younis Evacuation Ahead Of 'Unprecedented Attack' - BBC
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has ordered residents of Khan Younis to evacuate as it prepares to launch an "unprecedented attack".
People were ordered to move towards al-Mawasi in the west of the strip, in one of the largest evacuation orders issued by the Israeli military in recent months. An Arabic statement shared by IDF spokesperson Avichay Adraee said the area "will be considered a dangerous combat zone", adding: "Terrorist organizations have brought you disaster. For your safety, evacuate immediately."
11. Israel Plans To Force Gazans Into Three Security Zones - TIPP Insights
Israel plans to force Gazans into three civilian areas cordoned off by four military zones if a ceasefire with Hamas fails, reports citing leaked plans suggest.
12. Pro-EU Forces Prevail In Electoral “Super Sunday" - TIPP Insights
Pro-EU candidates emerged victorious on Sunday in three national elections in Romania, Portugal, and the first round of Poland’s presidential race.
13. UK, France, Canada Threaten Action If Israel Does Not Stop Gaza Offensive, Lift Aid Block - Al Arabiya
The UK, France, and Canada condemn expanded Israeli attacks in Gaza and threaten “further concrete actions in response” if Israel doesn’t halt renewed offensive and lift the blockade on humanitarian aid.
“We will not stand by while the Netanyahu Government pursues these egregious actions,” a joint statement from the three countries read.
14. Supreme Court Lets Trump End Deportation Protections For Venezuelans - TIPP Insights
The Supreme Court cleared the way for the Trump administration to end Temporary Protected Status (TPS), which was granted under former President Joe Biden to approximately 350,000 Venezuelans.
In a brief order with only one dissent, the justices paused a lower court ruling from San Francisco that had blocked the administration from rescinding protections. The decision effectively allows the TPS designation for Venezuelans to expire, as the Trump administration had sought.
15. Iran And Britain Summon Envoys Over Alleged Spying In UK - BBC
Three Iranian men were arrested on 3 May and appeared in court in London, charged with spying for the Islamic Republic.
The IRNA news agency said the British charge d'affaire was asked on Sunday to give an explanation for what it said was "unjustified" and "politically motivated" arrests. The Foreign Office responded on Monday by summoning Tehran's ambassador to the UK.
16. N. Korea's Kim Could Face War Crime Probe For Supporting Russia's War Against Ukraine - Yonhap
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un could face a war crime probe at the Hague-based International Criminal Court (ICC) for supporting Russia's war against Ukraine, a former chief of the ICC said.
Song Sang-hyun, former president of the ICC, made the remarks at an international conference in Seoul, as North Korea confirmed for the first time last month that it has deployed troops to Russia to support Moscow's war against Ukraine. "The time is right to bring Kim Jong-un before the ICC," Song said in his keynote speech at an event.
17. Nvidia CEO: China Chip Ban 'Deeply Painful' As $15 Billion In Sales Have Been Lost As A Result - Yahoo Finance
During an interview with technology analyst Ben Thompson, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang called the ban "enormously costly" and "deeply painful." He pointed to the $5.5 billion in charges the company expects to see in its first fiscal quarter due to the ban.
"No company in history has ever written off that much inventory," he said. "[N]ot only am I losing $5.5 billion — we wrote off $5.5 billion — we walked away from $15 billion of sales and probably ... $3 billion worth of taxes."
18. Coinbase Stock Officially Joins S&P 500, Cementing Milestone For Company And Crypto Industry - Yahoo Finance
Coinbase (COIN) became the first and only cryptocurrency platform to see its shares join the benchmark S&P 500 index, a milestone crypto bulls cheered.
"It's going to be in everybody's 401(k). Everyone's going to have crypto exposure, you know, at least indirectly through Coinbase, which is great. And it's also a symbol that crypto is updating the financial system," Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said.
19. Toxic Metals Found In All Rice Samples In Study - HealthDay News
CBS News reported that the report, released by Healthy Babies, Bright Futures, found arsenic in 100% of rice samples tested from stores in 20 metropolitan areas, including New York City, Los Angeles, and Miami.
1 in 4 samples exceeded the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's arsenic limit for infant rice cereal, which is 100 parts per billion. That rule was set in 2021, but it only applies to rice cereal made for babies, not to the rice that the rest of the family eats. The study tested 145 popular brands of rice, including Trader Joe's and Ben's and Goya. Arsenic showed up at the highest levels, followed by cadmium. Lead and mercury were found in smaller amounts.
