Christmas Season Lifts RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index

Consumer sentiment improved in December, as the RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, the first monthly read on U.S. consumer confidence, rose from 43.9 in November to 47.9, a robust 4.0 points or 9.1 percent gain. Still, the index stayed below the neutral 50 level for the fourth straight month, keeping the nation in what we classify as the pessimistic zone.

December’s reading of 47.9 is 2.5 percent below the 299-month historical average of 49.1, which shows that confidence is strengthening but not fully restored.

Investor confidence gained 2.2% (1.3 points) to 59.9 in December, while non-investor confidence improved 9.1% (3.8 points) to 41.8.

The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the first monthly measure of consumer confidence. It has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. (From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this Index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.)

RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,483 adults from November 25 to 29 for the December Index, using TIPP’s panel network; results have a range of 0–100, with readings above 50 indicating optimism, below 50 signaling pessimism, and 50 considered neutral. A more detailed methodology is available here.

The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In December, all of them improved.

• The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, gained 11.0%, from 40.0 in November to 44.4 in December.
• The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, rose 6.7% from its previous reading of 50.6 in November to 54.0 this month.
• Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, increased to 45.4 in December from 41.1 in November, a 10.5% gain.

Party Dynamics

Since President Trump’s election as the 47th President, Democrats’ confidence has plunged to 34.0, Republicans’ confidence has soared to 69.6, and independents, after briefly turning optimistic for the first time in nearly five years, have slipped back to 38.3.

Investor Confidence

Respondents are considered "investors" if they currently have at least $10,000 invested in the stock market, either personally or jointly with a spouse, directly or through a retirement plan. One-third (32%) of respondents met this criterion, and 63% were classified as non-investors. We were unable to determine the status of five percent of respondents.

Investor confidence improved 2.2% (1.3 points) to 59.9 in December, while non-investor confidence gained 9.1% (3.8 points) to 41.8. The confidence gap between investors and non-investors widened from 20.6 to 18.1 points.

Momentum

The Optimism Index rose to 47.9 in December, above its three-month average of 46.7. The Six-Month Outlook improved to 44.4, surpassing both its three- and six-month benchmarks. The Personal Financial Outlook strengthened to 54.0, also running ahead of its short-term averages, while confidence in federal policies increased to 45.4, moving back above recent trend levels. Taken together, the data point to a broad pickup in momentum across key indicators.

Demographic Analysis

The number of groups in the positive zone indicates the breadth of optimism in American society.

This month, only six of the 21 demographic groups we track are in positive territory, with scores above 50 on the Economic Optimism Index. For comparison, there were six in October, seven in September, and 10 in August.

In the immediate aftermath of the election, the number of groups in the optimistic zone had jumped from eight in October 2024 to 18 in November, indicating widespread optimism.

All 21 groups improved on the index, compared to none in November, nine in October, and three in September.

Economic optimism levels for 15 of 21 demographic groups are lower in December 2025 than the historical average over the 299 months since we began tracking in February 2001.

RCM/TIPP also releases our companion index, known as the RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index, the only metric that tracks the financial stress felt by Americans on a monthly basis.

The higher the number, the more the stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress, with 50 considered neutral.

The RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index dropped 1.0 points (1.5%) from 65.2 in November to 64.2 in December, reflecting a drop in financial stress among Americans. This reading remains 6.2% above the long-term average of 60.5, underscoring elevated financial strain. The last time the Index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.

RealClearMarkets website will release the next report at 10 a.m. EST on Tuesday, January 13.

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11. Virginia GOP Chairman Announces He Will Step Down—Joe Thomas, The Daily Signal

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From TIPP Insights News Editor

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📊 Market Mood — Thursday, December 4, 2025 (Pre-Market)

🟩 Futures Waver as Markets Await Jobs Data
U.S. futures hovered near flat early Thursday as traders waited for fresh jobless-claims data that could influence expectations for a Fed rate cut next week. A softening labor market and steady-but-sticky inflation have markets pricing in a high probability of a December rate cut.

🟨 Initial Jobless Claims on Deck
Investors will parse today’s weekly jobless-claims report for clearer signs of labor-market cooling. Claims remain low but hiring demand has eased. With limited official data during the recent shutdown, each weekly release carries extra weight for shaping expectations around Fed policy.

🟧 Salesforce Lifts Forecast on AI Strength
Salesforce raised its revenue and profit outlook, citing surging enterprise demand for its AI-driven agent platform. Shares rose after hours as the company highlighted rapid ARR growth from Agentforce and Data 360, underscoring strong corporate adoption of automation tools.

🟨 Gold Dips Slightly
Gold edged lower on profit-taking, though expectations for a rate cut next week continue to provide underlying support for bullion. Markets also await Friday’s delayed PCE inflation print, a key input for the Fed.

🟧 Oil Ticks Higher After New Strikes in Russia
Oil prices inched higher as Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure renewed supply concerns. Peace talks between U.S. and Russian officials ended without progress, keeping geopolitical risk elevated and supporting crude.

📅 Key Economic Events — Thursday, December 4, 2025

🟦 08:30 AM — Initial Jobless Claims
Weekly tally of first-time unemployment benefit applications — an important g