“We are very probably looking at a global recession, with no end in sight.” – Paul Krugman, November 2016
“Joe Biden will eventually preside over a soaring, ‘morning in America’-type recovery.” – Paul Krugman, November 2020.
“Slower growth is certain. For 2025, I see little or no GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation.” – Paul Krugmann, May 2025
If you want an accurate gauge of future economic conditions, look no further than Paul “Nobel-Prize-Winning-Economist” Krugman. He has a solid record of being exactly wrong, as the above quotations show.
So, the fact that he is now predicting stagflation should give everyone a boost of confidence that we are headed for a second Trump boom.
Krugman’s new prediction comes, in fact, just as signs are looking up.
The stock market is back in positive territory since President Donald Trump took office, and is up 7% compared with a year ago.
April’s jobs report beat expectations, with the economy adding 177,000 jobs. (Meanwhile, the Bureau of Labor Statistics admitted that roughly 600,000 jobs Biden claimed to have created during his last year in office were fake.)
The latest inflation number came in below expectations, with April’s 2.3% reading the lowest since … wait for it … February 2021. (That was before Biden signed his $1.9 trillion “American Rescue Plan” into law. You know, the plan that always-wrong Krugman said would never spark a massive inflationary spike.)
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow has the economy gaining 2.4% this quarter, after taking a very slight dip in the first quarter.
And federal revenues are up 9% so far this year, despite “expert” predictions that there’d be a massive falloff in tax payments. (See “Epic Narrative Fail: Federal Revenue Surges 9% Despite Predictions Of Decline.”)
JP Morgan now says the probability of a recession has fallen below 50%.
Michael Strain, director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, says “Trump’s willingness to de-escalate, willingness to pivot, and the resilience of the economy suggest that the U.S. can avoid the worst,” pointing to Trump’s course correction on tariffs.
To be sure, Krugman is hardly the only one predicting a Trump recession. Democrats and their handmaidens in the press, along with partisan hacks like Krugman, have been tripping over themselves with doom-and-gloom predictions since Trump won the election in 2024, just as they did in Trump’s first term. (We’re old enough to remember when such vitriol was attacked as “talking down the economy.”)
It’s also true that there’s no telling what will happen over the next year. Trump’s seemingly ad-hoc tariff campaign is still a drag on economic growth. Republicans could fail to extend Trump’s 2017 tax cuts, which would be catastrophic. Some other calamity could occur.
But we are willing to ignore those warning signs as long as Krugman keeps predicting disaster.
— Written by the I&I Editorial Board
Original article link
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. No Agreement Yet On Vatican Peace Talks: Kremlin - AFP
The Wall Street Journal reported Wednesday that follow-up talks between the two sides were expected to take place at the Vatican, starting mid-June, but the Kremlin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, denied this.
“There have been no agreements on this matter,” Peskov told reporters. Peskov also denied Finnish President Alexander Stubb’s suggestion that “technical talks” could take place at the Vatican as early as next week.
2. Merz Sees No Signs That War In Ukraine Will End Soon - D.W.
"There are currently no signs that this war will end quickly," German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said in Berlin. However, when mentioning diplomatic efforts to end the war, he referred to the potential mediation of the pope as "the last earthly authority."
Merz said one could only hope that it would at least be possible to bring the conflicting parties together for a constructive discussion in the Vatican. Merz's remarks follow Monday's telephone conversation between President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
3. EU Lawmakers Increase Pressure By Targeting Fertilizers From Russia And Belarus - RFE/RL
The European Union has taken a major step toward ending imports of Russian and Belarusian nitrogen fertilizers, approving phased duties designed to make purchases economically unviable within three years.
In a vote in the European parliament in Brussels, EU lawmakers voted 411-100 in favor of introducing the import duties from 1 July as the bloc tries to ratchet up pressure on Moscow to bring an end to the war in Ukraine. The duties approved will see the current 6.5 percent tariff levied on fertilizers from the two countries remain in place.
4. China Donates $500M To WHO As U.S. Pulls Back Support - HealthDay
Chinese Vice Premier Liu Guozhong said the money pledged over the next five years would help support global health and fight "unilateralism."
The pledge - positioning China to become the group’s top donor - comes as the U.S. plans to leave the international organization, The Washington Post reported. China has worked to boost its image by increasing support for other international groups. It has become the largest contributor of U.N. peacekeepers among the five permanent members of the Security Council, and it continues to invest in green energy worldwide, The Post said.
5. Denmark Screens Academics From China, Iran And Russia For Spies - Nikkei Asia
Like many European countries at the turn of the century, Denmark embraced research collaboration with other nations, especially with Chinese institutions. In the 25 years since, that warmth has turned to wariness.
Denmark's universities are setting up systems to screen salaried academics, researchers and administrative staff from China, Iran and Russia to prevent espionage. The Netherlands is also contemplating such a move, in line with recommendations by the European Union last year for more stringent national academic screening.
6. Netanyahu: Israel Will Control All Gaza By End Of Offensive - D.W.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has said the only way to ensure the security of his country was for it to control all of the Gaza Strip by the end of its offensive in the Palestinian territory.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said he is prepared to agree to a temporary ceasefire to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza, adding that 20 of them are "certainly" alive. Netanyahu dismissed speculation that he and President Donald Trump have fallen out.
7. World Leaders Condemn ‘Antisemitic’ Killing Of Israeli Embassy Staff In D.C. - TIPP Insights
Global leaders condemned Wednesday’s deadly shooting of two Israeli Embassy staffers in Washington, calling it an antisemitic attack.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the couple was “murdered in cold blood” and blamed “wild incitement against Israel.” British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said antisemitism must be stamped out “wherever it appears,” and the UK has offered support to the Israeli embassy in London. French President Emmanuel Macron said he reached out to Israel’s leadership, calling the killings “an antisemitic attack.”
8. Iran Says It Will Hold U.S. Responsible For Any Israeli Attack On Its Nuclear Sites - Al Arabiya
“We believe that in the event of any attack on the nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic of Iran by the Zionist regime, the U.S. government will also be involved and bear legal responsibility,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in a letter to the United Nations.
Araghchi’s letter follows a CNN report Tuesday that described the U.S. as having “new intelligence suggesting that Israel is making preparations to strike Iranian nuclear facilities.”
9. House Passes Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill - TIPP Insights
House Republicans on Thursday advanced President Donald Trump’s sweeping “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” a 1,000-page package combining tax cuts, spending reductions, immigration crackdowns, and Trump-era priorities.
The legislation makes permanent Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and adds new breaks — eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and some car loans — while partially offsetting costs by cutting Biden-era clean energy credits. It slashes Medicaid by $700 billion and tightens work requirements for both Medicaid and food aid.
10. Pentagon Accepts Jet From Qatar To Use As Air Force One - TIPP Insights
The Pentagon confirmed that the United States has officially accepted a luxury Boeing 747 jet from Qatar to serve as a future Air Force One.
“The secretary of defense has accepted a Boeing 747 from Qatar in accordance with all federal rules and regulations,” said chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell in a statement to ABC News. He added that the Department of Defense will ensure the aircraft meets all security and mission requirements to transport President Donald Trump.
11. Trump Jr. Clarifies: Not Running In 2028, Media Got It Wrong - TIPP Insights
Donald Trump Jr. pushed back against reports suggesting he is seriously considering a future presidential run, accusing Reuters of misrepresenting his comments.
He added, “I’ve always said, while I’ll never 100% rule it out down the line, I have zero interest in running for office in ’28 or anytime soon.” When he was asked at the Qatar Economic Forum about future political ambitions, he said, “Well, oh boy. It’s an honor to be asked. You never know… maybe one day. That calling is there.”
12. North Korean Warship Has 'Serious Accident' At Launch - RFA
A 5,000-ton North Korean destroyer suffered a "serious accident" during a launch ceremony, state media reported, with leader Kim Jong Un calling it a "criminal act" and warning of consequences.
After witnessing the accident, Kim Jong Un warned that the "irresponsible errors" would be dealt with at a plenary meeting of the ruling Workers' Party central committee next month. The accident "brought the dignity and self-respect of our state to a collapse," Kim said, and ordered the ship to be restored before the June meeting.
13. Report: U.S. Young Men Feel Lonelier Than Other Age Groups - UPI Health
Gallup analyzed aggregated data from 2023 and 2024 to determine that 25% of men between the ages of 15 and 34 reported feeling lonely the prior day when surveyed.
The percentage is seven points higher than the 18% average for young women in the same age group and the national average, which also is 18%. Turkey is the only nation cited that had a higher loneliness score, 29%, among young men, than those in the United States.
14. Blood, Urine Tests Can Identify Level Of Ultra-Processed Food In Diet - HealthDay News
Researchers reported that chemicals produced as the body converts ultra-processed food and drink into energy can be found in people's blood and urine.
Researchers found that certain sets of these chemicals, known as metabolites, reliably correspond with how much ultra-processed food a person is eating. Mounting evidence has linked ultra-processed foods to a number of health risks. A study found that for each 10% increase in ultra-processed foods, a person's risk of early death from any cause rises by 3%, according to findings published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine.
