Diplomats speak of “exit ramps.” Generals talk of victory. President Trump promised both, offering an end to the war and a way out for America. But in this conflict, there is only nicht: no exit, no peace, no end in sight. Even those who try to walk away find themselves pulled back in.
For nearly three years under the Biden administration, American support for the war in Ukraine marched forward under a single, stubborn doctrine: as long as it takes. The idea was that Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine represented such a flagrant violation of international norms, sovereignty, and the right to self-determination that the United States and its Western allies must commit unlimited resources to Ukraine's defense.
As long as American ground forces were not involved, neither the cost nor the duration of the war seemed to matter. The Ukrainians were willing to fight so the war could and should continue.
This delusional policy only prolonged the suffering. Both Ukraine and Russia have endured staggering losses in life, territory, and infrastructure. Throughout the 2024 campaign, Democrats, along with the unaccountable foreign policy class in Washington, insisted on staying the course. Just days before President Biden left office, he rushed through billions more in military and government aid to Kyiv, all while ignoring the political earthquake that was President Trump's sweeping electoral victory.
Trump had made his position on the war clear from the beginning: The war never should have started. It would not have started had he been in office. Every additional day of fighting was a day too many. His stance was not just a rebuke of the Biden doctrine; it was a bold return to what Professor John Mearsheimer and other foreign policy realists have long advocated: a view of international affairs grounded in the balance of power among great nations—chiefly the United States, Russia, and China.
From the moment of his victory, Trump made it clear he would end the war on his first day in office. Behind the scenes, his transition team worked tirelessly to make it a reality. Their efforts became impossible to ignore. What had once been a war for “as long as it takes” suddenly faced a new doctrine—a just peace.
However, this week, in a shocking reversal of his steadfast statements, Trump frustratingly conceded that his charm offensive against Putin wasn't working, and to stop further killing, he was ordering the Pentagon to send more weapons to Ukraine. For each missile or drone that Ukraine intercepts with American technology, the Russian response would be to attack even more. How more violence could lead to fewer deaths and injuries is something that we don't understand.
During the first 100 days of the Trump administration, Ukraine was not the only issue consuming the president. Trump was also battling internal resistance as he sought to restructure the federal bureaucracy and rewrite the global trade order. Despite those domestic challenges, his foreign policy reset regarding Russia began to shape international behavior. Some allies followed Trump's lead in calling for peace. Others hesitated. Everyone now agreed that peace had to happen. However, no one could agree on what a just peace would entail.
The limits of its definition were made glaringly obvious when President Zelensky of Ukraine, seated beside President Trump in the Oval Office, sparred with him and his advisors in front of the cameras. Zelensky insisted that Ukraine should not be forced to cede territory to Russia.
It was an extraordinary moment—an embattled leader laying down terms of victory after suffering a strategic defeat. Trump, adhering to the principles of realism, made his stance explicit. Ukraine's territorial demands could not be honored. He would not commit to forcing Russia to return land already under its control. Not even Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014 and has treated as Russian territory ever since, would be on the table.
Nor would Trump allow Ukraine to join NATO. He understood what the foreign policy establishment refuses to admit—Russia would never tolerate a nuclear-armed NATO state along its border. Here’s what control on the ground looks like after more than three years of war.
Ukraine had been part of the Soviet Union until the 1950s, when Nikita Khrushchev administratively transferred the territory to the Ukrainian SSR. Even after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine's constitution codified its neutrality, following the model of countries like Austria and Switzerland.
Kyiv's third demand was a continuation of Western military aid. That, too, was rejected. President Trump was astonished that a country that had already lost over 20 percent of its territory and thousands of its young men could continue to make demands. Without U.S. support, the war would likely have ended within days. Though Trump ordered a halt to further arms shipments, European leaders immediately rushed in to fill the gap. They assured Zelensky that they would continue the fight. The “as long as it takes” policy continued, this time with Brussels taking the lead.
President Trump has grown increasingly frustrated that both sides in the war continue to believe they can benefit from prolonging it. Russian President Vladimir Putin has refused to adjust his strategy despite Trump's diplomacy reshaping the global landscape.
In Syria, Trump recognized the new national government and promised to help reintegrate the country into the international community. In Iran, a daring U.S. covert operation struck deep inside the regime's nuclear infrastructure, setting back Tehran's weapons program by years. Trump's strategy—diplomacy backed by force—was hailed as a geopolitical masterstroke. A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas is now within reach.
But Putin sees the Ukraine conflict differently. As Mearsheimer has long argued, a lasting peace is impossible as long as the West continues arming Kyiv. Putin believes he can still pressure Ukraine into submission, and he has tested Trump's resolve.
This week, that gamble failed.
President Trump, furious with Russian escalation and betrayal, reversed course. He authorized a new round of military aid to Ukraine and called on the Republican-led Senate to pass a sanctions package that would economically cripple Moscow.
We are now back to where we started. The war that should have ended long ago has been given new life. Washington has returned to supporting an as-long-as-it-takes war.
TIPP Picks
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2. Network Yawns At Mamdani’s Fake Claims Of Blackness—Tim Graham, The Daily Signal
3. Iranian Official Threatens Trump With Drone Strike At Mar-a-Lago—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
4. The Constitution Does Not Compel Congress To Fund Abortion Providers—Terence Jeffrey, The Daily Signal
5. Yermak, Zelensky And America's Commitment To Ukraine—Steve Cortes, Cortes Investigates
6. Mr. President, Avoid The Amnesty That Abandons America—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
8. Tesla Sets Overdue Annual Meeting After Shareholder Outcry—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
9. 'Too Late' Powell Under Fire As Trump Calls For Steep Cuts—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
10. Yemen’s Houthis Sink Two Cargo Ships In A Week—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
11. Trump Announces 50% Tariffs On Copper, Brazilian Imports—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
12. Nvidia Becomes First Company To Reach $4 Trillion Marketcap—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
13. Judge Temporarily Blocks Trump’s Birthright Citizenship Order—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
14. Secret Service Failures Led To Trump Assassination Attempt, Report Finds—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
15. Will Zohran Mamdani Become The Democrat Party’s Trump?—Bradley Devlin, The Daily Signal
16. Trump Taps Sean Duffy As Interim NASA Chief—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
17. Rubio Kicks Off Asia Tour Amid Trump Trade Crackdown—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
18. Pentagon Bets Big On Rare Earths with MP Materials Stake—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
19. Cryptocurrency Legislation Gains Momentum In Hill Negotiations—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
TIPP Market Brief – July 11, 2025
Your Morning Snapshot
📊 Market Snapshot
- S&P 500: ▲ 6280.46 (0.27% )
- 10-Year Yield: ▲ 4.346%, (0.4 basis points)
- Crude Oil (WTI): ▼ $66.87 (2.21%)
- Bitcoin (BTC): ▲ $118,062.72
- US Dollar Index (USD): ▲ 97.80 (0.21%)
- Gold: ▲ $3,325.59 (0.36%)
Bigger Charts: $SPX | $TNX | $WTIC | $BTCUSD | $USD | $GOLD
📈 Featured Stock
Our pick for today’s featured stock
📰 News & Headlines
6 Reasons to Buy SoFi Technologies Stock Like There's No Tomorrow—Justin Pope, The Motley Fool
SoFi Technologies (SOFI): A Bull Case Theory—Ricardo Pillai, Insider Monkey
⭐Recent Featured Stocks
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) (7/10)
Tencent Music Entertainment ADR (TME) (7/9)
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) (7/8)
Blacksky Technology Inc (BKSY) (7/7)
Dave Inc (DAVE) (7/3)
Seagate Technology (STX) (7/2)
Ouster Inc (OUST) (7/1)
Carpenter Technology Corp (CRS) (6/30)
MP Materials Corp (MP) (6/27)
Celestica, Inc. (CLS) (6/26)
More here
🧠 Macro Insight
🟩 Futures Retreat as Canada Tariff Escalates Trade Fears
Markets pull back after Trump announces a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, raising concerns of wider trade fallout and slowing global growth.
🟨 Trump Hits Canada With 35% Tariff, Signals More to Come
Trump imposes a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting August 1, escalating his trade fight. The move follows recent tariff hikes on several countries, with more possible.
🟦 Bitcoin Surges to New Record Above $118K
Bitcoin jumps to record highs, fueled by strong institutional inflows and a crypto-friendly U.S. policy environment. Trading volumes in Bitcoin ETFs hit fresh peaks.
🟧 Oil Rises on Russian Sanction Risks Despite Trade Worries
Crude prices climb amid speculation of new sanctions on Russia, though gains are tempered by tariff concerns and higher OPEC+ output.
🟥 Nvidia Tops $4 Trillion Market Cap Milestone
Nvidia becomes the first company to close above a $4 trillion market value, driven by surging demand for AI chips and computing technologies.
📅 Key Events Today
No key events today.
