Russian President Vladimir Putin told international journalists on June 18th that Moscow wants to end the war in Ukraine "as soon as possible," preferably through peaceful means, and is open to new negotiations, provided Kyiv and its allies are willing to engage.
Why is Putin suddenly talking about negotiations when he has been stalling for months? Until now, he has insisted that Ukraine must recognize Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson as part of Russia as a precondition to coming to the peace table. He has insisted on not suspending offensive operations when the negotiations start. He has also demanded that the West must end its support before peace talks can begin. Each demand amounts to a poison pill, showing he was never serious about peace.
Putin is suddenly interested in talking because the rest of the world has almost moved on from the Ukraine-Russia war. Relevance is a key attribute in geopolitics, and while Putin has held the spotlight for more than three years, daily news coverage has moved to the Middle East, where Israel and Iran are fighting for their very existence. Even the Gaza conflict is no longer getting attention, although the world's press has stepped up reporting on a 24/7 basis from Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. (Gaza is literally next door.)
We noted in an earlier editorial that since President Trump began his second term, the velocity of news has reached unprecedented levels, overwhelming even the most seasoned editorial teams and news consumers. Entire stories become obsolete soon after they first appear, and long-form journalism has taken the most brutal hit, as stories spoil faster than milk in the sun.
Putin, Zelenskyy, and the EU can ill afford to become obsolete in the daily news cycles. And back home, Trump is consumed by domestic priorities. His legislative budget blueprint is in the hands of the Senate, and serious discussions about spending cuts, tax cuts, deficits, debt, and the debt ceiling are imminent. Tariff negotiations with various countries are also yet to be held.
The media is providing full coverage to the Democrats, who have become rudderless as efforts to make ICE enforcement a mobilizing issue have backfired. Our TIPP poll shows that the president's immigration agenda is hugely popular. California Gov. Newsom thought he would put an end to Trump's deployment of the National Guard by seeking relief in federal district court - to highlight Trump's "undemocratic and authoritarian" style of governance. Newsom hailed a district judge's temporary injunction as a win and celebrated on camera—only to be slapped down that very evening by a federal appeals court, which lifted the order. On Thursday, a three-judge panel (including a Biden appointee) reversed the district court order indefinitely, maintaining that Trump has the power to deploy the Guard if he chooses. The presidency deserves such deference. It was a huge victory for Trump.
Throughout last year's campaign, President Trump promised the world that he would do everything possible to end the Russia-Ukraine war. His approach was to do the exact opposite of what the West had been doing under the Biden administration, believing correctly that the war had gotten out of hand. So rather than isolate Russia further, Trump reached out to Moscow. And rather than coddle Ukrainian leader Zelenskyy, Trump distanced himself from Kyiv and, later, the European Union.
At a press conference in mid-February, Trump's pivot to Russia was clear. Trump raised the prospect of President Putin returning to the G8, which Russia was part of from 1997 to 2014. Trump mentioned this point again at the G7 in Canada earlier this week. He hinted that Russia's absence from the august group of wealthy nations was the reason the war started, or at least contributed to its prolongation. Next, Trump dispatched his top diplomat, Marco Rubio, and two other officials, including his Middle East envoy, to meet with Russian counterparts in Riyadh. Europe and Ukraine weren't invited to the meeting. Over at the UN, the United States avoided blaming Russia, a critical departure from the Biden administration days.
Towards the end of February came the fantastic spectacle of Zelenskyy arguing aloud with President Trump and VP JD Vance in front of TV cameras. Zelensky had been coddled by Biden and Europe's leadership, fueling the very Zelensky Entitlement Syndrome that now defines him. Blinded by hubris, he refuses to accept that a new sheriff is in town and still believes he can bleed billions from the U.S. as he did under Biden. But his ambitions go beyond aid—his goal is to entangle America in the conflict, whether through direct troop deployment or NATO escalation. Zelensky is pro-war, anti-peace, and unwilling to de-escalate, and the dressing down that he got at the White House forever changed the relationship between the two leaders.
Each of Trump's moves was strategically brilliant in forcing change in the terms of the debate. From the drumbeat of an "as-long-as-it-takes" war, Trump had shifted the conversation toward a "just peace."
A new TIPP survey for the League of American Workers shows that 62% of Americans support disengaging from the Russia-Ukraine conflict if peace talks initiated by President Trump are met with insincerity from both sides. Support spans party lines, with most Republicans (81%), a majority of independents (59%), and even a significant share of Democrats (45%) in favor of stepping back.
President Putin understands that Trump is sincere in his goal of seeking peace. The Russian leader sees a golden opportunity to give Trump a victory, even as the Middle East conflict escalates. In doing so, Putin can claw back into the limelight, a position he desperately seeks.
It is little wonder that Moscow is open to new negotiations.
TIPP Takes
Geopolitics, Geoeconomics, And More
1. Trump Presided Over National Security Meeting On Iran, U.S. Official Says - Reuters
President Donald Trump presided over a national security meeting about Iran with top aides at the White House on Friday, a U.S. official said.
The official also said U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff is in regular contact with the Iranians, both directly and indirectly, with Qatar acting as an intermediary.
2. Israel Warns Lebanese Group Hezbollah To Stay Out Of Iran Conflict - TIPP Insights
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned Lebanese militant group Hezbollah against entering the war between Israel and Iran, cautioning the Iran-backed group that further aggression could lead to its destruction.
“I suggest that the Lebanese proxy be careful… If there will be further terror, there will be no Hezbollah,” Katz wrote on X. His remarks followed Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem’s Thursday statement that the group is “not neutral” in the conflict and would “act as it sees appropriately,” though he stopped short of pledging military intervention.
3. U.S. Hits Houthis With Largest Sanctions Action Yet, Targets Oil Smugglers - TIPP Insights
The U.S. Treasury Department announced its largest sanctions action to date against Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants, targeting 4 individuals, 12 entities, and 2 vessels involved in oil smuggling and illicit financing.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) said the network funneled revenue to the Houthis through black-market oil sales and smuggling operations at Houthi-controlled ports. The targeted vessels and their operators allegedly violated U.S. sanctions by discharging oil derivatives to the group.
4. Iran’s FM Araghchi Says Israel Attack ‘Betrayal’ Of Diplomacy With U.S. - AFP
Iran’s foreign minister condemned the Israeli attacks against the Islamic Republic as a “betrayal” of diplomatic efforts with the U.S., saying Tehran and Washington had been due to craft a “promising agreement” on the Iranian nuclear program.
“We were attacked in the midst of an ongoing diplomatic process,” Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva ahead of a crunch meeting with European foreign ministers.
5. Iran FM Says Ready To ‘Consider’ Diplomacy ‘Once The Aggression Is Stopped’ - AFP
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told reporters following the talks at Geneva that we support the continuation of discussion with” Britain, France, Germany and the European Union “and express our readiness to meet again in the near future.
Meanwhile, European powers urged Iran to hold nuclear talks “without awaiting” an end to Israeli airstrikes on the Islamic Republic, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot said.
6. UNICEF Warns Of 'Man-Made Drought' In Gaza As Water Crisis Deepens - TIPP Insights
The Gaza Strip is facing a worsening humanitarian disaster as water infrastructure collapses, leaving children at extreme risk of dehydration, UNICEF warned.
“Children will begin to die of thirst,” said UNICEF spokesperson James Elder at a press briefing in Geneva, noting that only 40% of Gaza’s drinking water production facilities remain operational. The warning comes amid a dramatic spike in malnutrition. The agency says the crisis is entirely avoidable and blames ongoing restrictions on humanitarian access and damage to critical infrastructure.
7. Putin Says ‘The Whole Of Ukraine Is Ours’ In Theory, May Take City Of Sumy - Reuters
President Vladimir Putin said that Russians and Ukrainians were one people, “and in that sense the whole of Ukraine is ours,” and said he did not rule out Russia taking control of the Ukrainian city of Sumy.
But Putin, speaking at an international economic forum in St Petersburg, said Russia had never doubted Ukraine’s right to sovereignty, but noted that when Ukraine declared its independence in 1991 it was as a “neutral state.”
8. China Says It Expelled A Philippine Gov't Ship From Disputed Waters - UPI
China said its coast guard expelled a Philippine government ship from waters near a disputed shoal as maritime tensions between the two feuding neighbors intensify.
Huangyan Island is known internationally as the Scarborough Shoal and in the Philippines as Bajo de Masinloc. The disputed maritime territory is a triangular chain of reefs and rocks that falls within the Philippines' exclusive economic zone, but China lays claim to it and much of the South China Sea through its Nine-Dash-Line maps, which have been rejected by several nations, including the United States.
9. China's Rare-Earth Exports To U.S. Drop 80% In May - Nikkei Asia
China's rare-earth exports to the U.S. plummeted 80% on the year in May while shipments to Japan fell 54%, the latest sign that Beijing's trade controls are rattling global supply chains.
The May data, denominated in U.S. dollars and released by China's General Administration of Customs, covers exports to major countries and regions of the seven rare earths subject to Chinese export controls as well as some others.
10. Tesla Signs Deal For $556M Grid-Scale Battery Storage Station In China - UPI
The deal is with China Kangfu International Leasing Co. and the Shanghai local government. It's the first Tesla large-scale battery storage facility in China.
Tesla said that, when complete, this project is expected to become the largest grid-side energy storage project in China. Utility-scale battery energy storage assists energy grid management by keeping supply and demand in balance. More is being built worldwide.
11. Japan's Mitsubishi Corp. Bets Big On U.S. Solar With $3.9bn Expansion Plan - Nikkei Asia
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. will boost its solar power generation capacity in the U.S. by 160% by 2028, Nikkei has learned, with a total project cost estimated at $3.9 billion.
The company will source equipment from local suppliers and take advantage of tax incentives for solar development in the U.S.
12. Spain Rejects Trump’s NATO Spending Demands - TIPP Insights
Spain’s resistance to Donald Trump’s demand that allies boost their defence spending to 5% of GDP risks disrupting a high-stakes NATO summit aimed at placating the U.S. president.
Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticised the proposed target as “unreasonable,” warning that such a sharp increase in defense spending could harm the economy and undermine social welfare by redirecting public funds. According to alliance figures, Spain ranked lowest among NATO members last year, with defense expenditure estimated at just 1.28% of GDP.
13. Electronic Waste Surges In Latin America Amid Lack Of Recycling Laws - UPI
Growing demand for technology in Latin America has made the region a major importer of electronic devices, but it still lacks clear regulations for managing the resulting waste – a problem with serious environmental, public health and economic implications.
Electronic waste generation in Latin America rose 49% between 2010 and 2019, increasing from 10.4 pounds per person to 14.8 pounds, according to the United Nations' Global E-waste Monitor 2022 and the Latin America and Caribbean E-waste Platform. Only 3% of e-waste generated in Latin America is properly collected and treated, far below the global average of 17.4%, according to regional monitoring.
14. Meta Discussed Buying Perplexity Before Investing in Scale - Bloomberg
The two companies couldn’t come to an agreement and decided not to pursue the deal, said the people, who asked not to be named as the details of the talks aren’t public.
The financial terms under discussion could not be learned. Perplexity recently closed a new round of funding at a $14 billion valuation. The talks with Meta, which have not previously been reported, highlight Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s willingness to use deals and big hires to catch up in the AI race. The talks took place before Meta finalized a $14.3 billion investment in Scale AI that gives it a 49% stake in the data-labeling startup.
15. FDA Approves Long-Lasting HIV-Prevention Drug - UPI Health
The Food and Drug Administration has approved a new drug that could prevent HIV infections with just two shots every year and possibly eradicate the disease.
The drug's scientific name is lenacapavir and it will be marketed as Yeztugo, which requires one injection every six months to maintain its effectiveness in preventing HIV infections. Gilead Sciences is producing the drug, which is the second long-lasting HIV prevention drug available.
