While all eyes are trained on the strained truce in Gaza, trouble is slowly but certainly brewing about two thousand miles away in Afghanistan. Since the U.S. withdrawal in 2021, the Taliban has been in power. More than three years into their rule, conditions continue to deteriorate, demanding greater attention from the world.
Post-Withdrawal Chaos
When the foreign troops pulled out, the country’s economy was in shambles, corruption was rampant, and the army––which the U.S. had spent millions to train––disintegrated in spectacular fashion. The Taliban regime had promised to bring stability and security after two decades of U.S.-led NATO military operations. Instead, they suspended democracy, outlawed political parties, and effectively created a one-party state. Any dissent that may exist is muted.
Taliban’s Iron Grip
Over the years, the Taliban administration has been engaging with a few governments in their bid to establish legitimacy. But the hardline rhetoric and oppressive policies of the religious-political-military organization have largely isolated Afghanistan on the world stage. The few moderate voices in the country seem to have little or no influence over the group formed by the Afghan mujahideen––Islamic guerrilla fighters that fought the Soviet occupation with backing from the CIA and Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI).
To weaken the Taliban’s rule, international aid was suspended, Kabul’s foreign assets were frozen, and banking restrictions were imposed. Despite diplomatic pressure, international sanctions and countries refusing to recognize the ultra-religious and repressive government, the Taliban has stayed in power.
But conditions on the ground have worsened, and a humanitarian crisis is looming. In a 2020 report, the Asian Development Bank estimated that over 50% of the Afghan population lived below the poverty line. Without international aid, more Afghans have been pushed into poverty, and malnutrition is driving up mortality rates, especially among girls. Employment opportunities are scarce, and unemployment numbers are climbing. Health, water, and sanitation services have deteriorated. Health facilities have closed due to insufficient funds, resources, and trained personnel. According to the World Bank numbers, Afghanistan lost about a quarter of its real GDP in 2021 and 2022.
Afghanistan is resource-rich but lacks the political will and capability to develop them. The country’s natural resources and mineral wealth––including significant reserves of lithium, copper, and iron ore, and vast deposits of natural gas and petroleum––is estimated at $1 trillion. International isolation and infrastructural challenges hinder development and prevent the nation from capitalizing on its vast wealth.
Women Silenced
Kabul is frequently in the news these days but for the wrong reasons. The West finds the treatment of women and girls by the hard-line orthodox regime abhorrent and has been consistently critical of it. The Taliban have restricted access to education for teenage girls, and they are barred from high school and universities. Women are forbidden from working in most sectors. A recent report suggests that women have been banned from pursuing midwifery and nursing courses. Strict dress codes and gender segregation are enforced, and access to public spaces is severely restricted. Women cannot travel without a male relative and are explicitly forbidden from interacting with men they are not related by blood or marriage. In March 2024, the regime reinstated flogging and death by stoning for women as punishment for adultery. Though the International Criminal Court issued warrants against the Taliban supreme leader and the Chief Judge for committing crimes against humanity through the oppression and persecution of Afghan women and girls, it has come to naught.
The one laudable achievement of the Taliban has been its success in curbing narcotics production. The United Nations estimates that the country produces 95 percent fewer narcotics, mostly opium and cannabis, since the government launched its efforts to destroy and discourage its cultivation.
Terror’s Resurgence
While fewer drugs are leaving the country, Afghanistan has once again become a terrorist safe haven. Terrorist groups, including al Qaeda, ISIS-K, and the Taliban’s own Haqqani Network, have set up training facilities and sleeper cells in the country. These groups are heightening tensions within the country and across its borders. Islamabad alleges that the Taliban is patronizing the Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al-Qaeda and allowing these terror outfits to carry out strikes inside Pakistan. With a 25% surge in terror attacks, Islamabad launched airstrikes in late 2024 to destroy TTP training camps and commanders inside Afghanistan. The attacks and counter-attacks are jeopardizing the fragile peace and security in the region. Furthermore, in retaliation for the support extended to TTP, Islamabad has resorted to deporting Afghans living in the country.
The humanitarian crisis will likely worsen if tensions with Islamabad continue to rise. According to the UN refugee agency, some three million Afghans are currently in Pakistan, but only about half of them are documented. Pakistan has begun expelling undocumented Afghans and ‘foreign nationals’ back to Afghanistan. According to estimates from the International Organisation for Migration (IOM), around 795,000 Afghans have been forced to return since September 2023. With President Trump suspending the resettlement program and ordering the cancellation of all flights, Afghans have fewer options. The suspension of applications for Afghan refugees, without any exemptions, has left those who worked with the U.S. troops during “America’s longest war” in grave danger.
While the West refuses of engage with a regime that blatantly violates human rights, it cannot be denied that a stable Afghanistan–– strategically located at the crossroads of Central Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East––is crucial for the region. However, the current conditions––economic woes, rising unemployment, and worsening poverty––could once again turn the country into a refuge and breeding ground for extremist groups. Should that come to pass, it could pose significant global security risks, well beyond Afghan borders. The world cannot afford to ignore Afghanistan, no matter who governs it.
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