The Best Contrary Indicator On Wall Street May Be Your Neighbor

Think about someone you know who follows the stock market. Maybe it is a retired neighbor who checks his portfolio every morning over coffee. Maybe it is a colleague who forwarded you a worrisome article about oil prices last month. Chances are, in April, that person was nervous.

And chances are, they were wrong.

The TIPP Investor Outlook Index fell to 60.7 in April, an 8.6-point drop from March and the steepest single-month decline in over a year. The survey captured American retail investors at a moment of genuine anxiety. Seniors turned net-bearish for the first time in memory, dropping 23 points to 41.0. Women pulled back sharply. Democrats and liberals fell below the neutral line for the first time since before the 2024 election. People looking at a volatile stock market, a war in the Middle East, and rising oil prices, had concluded that things were about to get worse.

Then, in mid-April, the Strait of Hormuz reopened and peace talks accelerated. By the close of that week, the S&P 500 had broken through 7,000 for the first time in history, posting its best weekly gain since May 2025. The Nasdaq notched 13 consecutive positive sessions, its longest winning streak since 2009. Whether the geopolitical situation holds or not, the market had already delivered its verdict: the investors who told our survey they were bracing for a downturn had called the bottom.

What makes this more than a one-time story is that it has happened twice before. In October 2023, the index hit its all-time low of 49.0, the only net-bearish reading in the survey’s history. The S&P 500 responded with a 12.8% gain over the following months. In April 2025, sentiment dipped to 58.6 on fears about AI valuations and economic uncertainty. By summer, both the market and investor confidence had fully recovered.

What is striking is that each of the three episodes had a completely different cause. Rate fears rattled investors in 2023. Concerns about AI valuations did it in 2025. A war in the Middle East did it this April. The triggers had nothing in common. But each time, retail investors pulled back just as the market was gathering itself to move higher. That consistency is what turns a curious coincidence into something worth tracking.

None of this is meant to suggest that retail investors are foolish. The Iran war was real. The oil price spike was real. The anxiety in April was entirely understandable. But what the data keeps showing, month after month, is that ordinary investors tend to feel the most frightened right around the moment a crisis begins to turn. They read the situation accurately. They just have trouble imagining it resolving.

Behavioral economists call this recency bias. We give far too much weight to whatever just happened and far too little to the longer sweep of history. A bad week feels like the new normal. A scary headline feels like a forecast. The TIPP index, by measuring this tendency in real time across 33 demographic groups every month, does something useful. It turns a very human cognitive habit into a trackable signal.

Not every dip in the index will mark a market bottom. But three-for-three is a record worth paying attention to. The next time the TIPP Investor Outlook Index drops sharply, and it will at some point, the most important question is not whether retail investors are scared. It is whether their fear has peaked.

If history is any guide, that moment is worth more than most people realize.

The April survey was conducted March 31 to April 2 among 1,464 U.S. adults. The TIPP Investor Outlook Index is based on a nationally representative monthly survey of U.S. retail investors. Index formula: 50 + (Bullish% - Bearish%) x 0.5. Above 50 = net bullish. Below 50 = net bearish. 33 demographic segments tracked monthly since December 2022.

👉 Show & Tell 🔥 The Signals

I. Where Are Investors Putting Their Money Right Now?

Bullish investors are piling into growth assets. More than a third (37%) say stocks are their best investment right now, more than double the 14% of bears who say the same. Crypto follows the same pattern: 22% of bulls favor it versus just 7% of bears.

Bears are retreating to safety. Nearly one in five favor CDs (20%) or say they are not sure where to put their money (20%), both roughly double the bullish figures.

Gold sits in the middle, favored by both camps, suggesting it has become a consensus hedge regardless of market outlook.

II. The S&P 500 Just Hit 7,100. A Year Ago It Was at 5,300.

That is a 34% gain in twelve months. Five years ago the index sat at 4,200. The investors who stayed the course nearly doubled their money. The ones who sold in April when sentiment hit its low point locked in losses right before one of the best weeks in two years.

1. Blockading The Blockade?—Ron Paul, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

2. Iran’s Determination To Break Out From The Panopticon Of Western 360° Containment—Alastair Crooke, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

3. Annihilating Iranian Civilization With A Blockade—Jacob G. Hornberger, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

4. Adam Smith on the US Midterms—Glenn Hubbard, Project Syndicate

5. House Introduces SWALWELL Act To Deliver A ‘Blow’ To DC’s Corruption ‘Culture’—Pedro Rodriguez, The Daily Signal

6. California Dems In Disarray After Swalwell’s Exit—Hailey Gomez, The Daily Signal

7. Virginia Voters Should Look To Democrat-run Maryland On Redistricting—Joe Thomas, The Daily Signal

8. Senate GOP Disapproval Rating Jumps To 60% Among Swing State Voters: Poll—Pedro Rodriguez, The Daily Signal

9. Will An Alaskan Tax Hike Make The Oil Crisis Worse?—EJ Antoni & Sarah Wagoner, The Daily Signal

10. ‘Look These Mothers In The Eyes’: Families Of Victims Killed By Illegal Aliens To Testify Before Congress—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal

11. GOP Must Own The Tax Cut Message— Lawrence Kudlow, TIPP Insights

12. Outrage Over Trump’s Image, Silence For Persecuted Christians: The Media’s Double Standard—Daily Signal Staff, The Daily Signal

13. House Conservatives Demand FISA Spy Power Reforms— George Caldwell, The Daily Signal

14. ICE Arrests More Pedophiles, Kidnappers— Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal

15. The Chainsaw Revolution: Javier Milei’s Rothbardian Assault On Argentine Collectivism—Lorenzo Cianti, Mises Wire

16. Federal Spending Rises To Post-Covid High In Wake Of DOGE Failure—Ryan McMaken, Mises Wire

17. The Danger Of Allowing Good Intentions To Override The Constitution—Wanjiru Njoya, Mises Wire

18. Artificial Liquidity Brings Inflation Shocks—Thorsten Polleit, Mises Wire

19. Precious Metals Work— Mark Thornton, Mises Wire