The Great Inversion: Trump’s Support Has Shifted

Trump heads into these midterms with the same rating he had before his last ones. But TIPP data shows the people behind that rating have swapped places. Investors are in. Rural Americans are out. We call it the Great Inversion, and on November 3 it could decide who controls the House.

The TIPP Presidential Leadership Index averaged 43.2 from May through October this year, compared with 42.8 over the same months of 2018. Urban residents, younger adults, higher earners and college graduates have joined investors in warming up to Trump. Seniors, non-college Americans and even Republicans have joined rural Americans in cooling.

Investors in, rural voters out

In 2018, rural Americans rated Trump 11.2 points higher than investors did, 56.9 to 45.7. Today, investors rate him 9.8 points higher than rural Americans, 56.0 to 46.2.

Trump’s biggest gain came among urban residents, whose rating rose 12.9 points to 44.5. Investors rose 10.3 points to 56.0, and adults aged 25 to 44 rose 10.0 points to 49.4. Americans earning $75,000 or more gained 8.5 points, and college graduates gained 8.3.

The losses came from the groups that powered his rise. Rural Americans fell 10.7 points to 46.2, and Americans with a high school education fell 9.4 points to 42.6. Republicans dropped 6.6 points to 77.8, and seniors dropped 6.4 points to 39.9.

Direction and optimism tell the same story

TIPP’s Direction of Country and Economic Optimism indexes show the same split.

Rural Americans’ view of the country’s direction fell 16.4 points from 2018, and their economic optimism fell 20.6 points, more than any other group in the chart. Seniors fell 12.3 and 16.2 points on the two measures.

Urban Americans went the other way. Their view of the country’s direction rose 11.4 points, and their economic optimism edged up 0.6 points while the national reading fell 11.2.

Investors’ economic optimism now runs 25.1 points above non-investors’, a record in 25 years of TIPP data.

What it means for November 3

What matters now is whether these new loyalties turn into votes. Urban and college-educated Americans have warmed up to Trump, but they have not been a reliable source of Republican votes. Seniors and rural voters have cooled on him, but they have long leaned Republican.

If the new supporters turn out for Republicans and his old supporters stay loyal despite their doubts, the GOP adds new votes on top of its traditional base. Trump’s momentum helps: his Leadership score has risen every month since June, from 42.0 to 44.1 in October.

If the new supporters like Trump but don’t vote Republican, their warming makes no real difference. The result then rests on the old base, and whether its loyalty outlasts its doubts.

If the old base stays home as well, Republicans are in trouble. Seniors are the most dependable midterm voters, and even Republicans’ own rating of Trump has slipped from 84.4 to 77.8.

Which of Trump’s two coalitions shows up on November 3 will tell us whether the Great Inversion is a polling curiosity or a political force.

About the data: The TIPP Presidential Leadership Index combines the president’s favorability, job approval and leadership ratings. It runs from 0 to 100; above 50 is positive and below 50 is negative. The Direction of Country and Economic Optimism indexes use the same scale. Figures are averages of TIPP’s monthly national surveys from May through October of each year, comparing 2018 with 2026. Six-month averages smooth out month-to-month swings within smaller groups.

TIPP’s reputation for polling excellence comes from being the most accurate pollster for the past six presidential elections.