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The MAGA Moodswing

Trump’s Ukraine Flip, Graham Embrace, and Tariff Threats Rattle the Base Even as His Second-Term Momentum Builds

We’re not sounding an alarm. We’re saying what a lot of us are quietly feeling. We’ve stood with President Trump from day one—fought beside him, believed in the mission, and never flinched. That hasn’t changed. This movement is our home, and we speak now not out of doubt, but out of love for everything it represents. Because sometimes, the deepest loyalty is the kind that speaks up when something doesn’t sit right. That moment, for many of us, may be now.

It has been only about ten days since President Trump secured the most significant legislative victory of his second term. Using his unique political instincts and unrelenting pressure, he succeeded in pushing Congress to pass his sweeping budget bill just before the July 4 deadline. The victory celebration, complete with military jets soaring over the White House, was not only grandiose but symbolic. It marked the peak of a comeback that may well be the most consequential and fascinating return to power in modern American political history.

It is remarkable to recall that just over a year ago, Trump eviscerated former President Joe Biden during their debate in Atlanta, cementing his dominance. It is equally sobering to recall that a would-be assassin fired multiple shots at Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania. One bullet grazed his right ear as he turned his head to glance at a large screen showing immigration enforcement statistics from his first term. That split-second movement likely saved his life.

Now, with the core elements of his plan to reshape the American government largely underway and the Supreme Court repeatedly backing his executive authority, Trump may be growing restless. The early months of this presidency were defined by extraordinary discipline, tightly orchestrated by his chief of staff, Susan Wiles, and a cadre of loyal advisors who kept him focused and protected from errant political influences. But the last ten days have revealed troubling signs.

We are raising a yellow flag, not in distrust, but out of concern. Most jarring was Trump's abrupt endorsement of South Carolina Senator Lindsey Graham on Truth Social. Graham has long been associated with the Washington establishment and is one of the Senate's loudest advocates for foreign military intervention. He has visited Kyiv more than ten times since the war began, and he maintains a close relationship with President Zelenskyy. Graham was also involved in Ukraine's internal affairs as early as 2013, during the Maidan Revolution that deposed the democratically elected government. At that time, Zelenskyy was still a television performer, not a politician.

Only two weeks ago, Graham traveled again to Ukraine, this time accompanied by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. This visit occurred while Trump was applying direct pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table. When asked to comment on the meeting, Trump warned that Graham and Pompeo should be careful, stating plainly that their actions could lead to serious consequences.

Yet, within days, President Trump reversed course, much to the disappointment of the MAGA movement and authorized the Pentagon to send additional military aid to Ukraine. Whether this was a calculated move intended to pressure Putin remains unknown. Kristen Welker of NBC News reported on Friday that President Trump told her that he was making a significant announcement on Russia on Monday. The United States would send weapons to Ukraine through NATO, and NATO would be paying for those weapons 100% and distributing them, including the Patriot air defenses that Ukraine has been asking for. Forgive us for thinking for a moment that President Biden was back in the White House.

Aside from the Ukraine issue, the Trump administration has turned its attention to global trade, a key area of the President's economic strategy. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant proudly announced that since the implementation of Trump's new tariff regime on "Liberation Day," the United States Treasury has collected over $100 billion in tariffs. Despite widespread concern, inflation has remained stable, and American energy production is at record highs. With U.S. oil companies producing nearly 200,000 additional barrels per day and OPEC Plus pledging to raise output, gas prices have moderated. Grocery costs, while still elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels, have shown signs of stability.

When markets initially reacted nervously to what some feared were erratic tariff rate changes from the White House, Trump wisely paused implementation for ninety days, a window that expired on July 9. With few signed trade agreements in place, the administration sent letters to more than twenty countries informing them that unless deals are reached by August 1, the listed tariff rates will be imposed. Markets have been jittery but not panicked.

The greater concern lies in Trump's decision to threaten a 35 percent tariff on Canadian imports. He warned that if Canada retaliated, an additional 35 percent tariff would follow. Just last week, Trump also vowed to target any country associated with the BRICS economic bloc, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. BRICS has been working to create a counterweight to the United States in the global South and may eventually propose a currency designed to rival the dollar.

To preempt this threat, Trump announced a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports. India may face a 20 to 25 percent tariff, though this could increase, as it is a founding member of  BRICS. These moves have brought volatility back to global markets. It remains to be seen whether Trump's aggressive posture is part of a deliberate negotiation strategy or a more reactive shift in foreign economic policy. Either way, the unpredictability is back.

Despite the turbulence, Trump has reshaped the nation at a pace and scale rarely seen. His presidency has been effective, even under relentless lawfare and obstruction from the political left. On July 10, a district judge in Boston issued a nationwide injunction against Trump's birthright citizenship executive order by certifying a class of unborn children. This decision directly contradicts Supreme Court guidance that warned against granting nationwide relief except in extraordinary circumstances. The left, however, continues to ignore institutional norms when convenient.

With so many critical policies now in place, the administration should focus on securing and executing them. Trump's decision to rearm Ukraine, no matter the rationale, is deeply concerning. His cabinet secretaries must take the lead on trade negotiations, and the President must avoid sending conflicting signals on social media. The MAGA movement has earned a government that operates with precision and stability.

America still believes in President Trump's vision and extraordinary political instincts. But recent developments cannot be dismissed lightly. The nation, the movement, and the world are watching.

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