Reports that Chinese President Xi Jinping has declined to attend the Brussels summit to mark the 50th anniversary of EU-China diplomatic ties have caused a stir in European political circles. While Beijing portrays it as routine—the EU and China alternate hosting the summit; the Chinese President hosts the summit in Beijing and the Chinese premier attends those held in Brussels—it is clear that European leaders were hoping President Xi would grace the historic occasion.
Given the current geopolitical tensions in Europe and the escalating trade war with Washington, it is easy to understand why the EU would like President Xi to make an exception. Besides commemorating five decades of diplomatic ties, it would have been an opportunity to present a unified front to President Trump, who is shaking up the established world order and reshaping trade relations with the bloc and China.
Diplomatic relations between the EU and China were established in 1975. Over the past fifty years, Beijing and the EU have forged a multifaceted relationship encompassing trade, investment, and cooperation on global issues. China is the EU's second-largest trading partner and, collectively, the EU is Beijing's largest trading partner. Trade between the two is estimated to be a whopping 1.5 billion euros a day.
However, the two parties have had to navigate various challenges. The sheer volume of trade has come at a cost to Europe. Beijing enjoys a trade surplus with the bloc. Last year, the surplus amounted to €304.5bn.
The European bloc views China as a competitor and systemic rival. The EU has alleged that China favors its industries by giving preferential subsidies while enforcing trade barriers for foreign companies. The EU has opened an anti-dumping investigation against Chinese exports and imposed additional tariffs on Chinese manufactured goods to protect its industries.
Meanwhile, tech rivalry between the two is at an all-time high. The EU is exploring ways to reduce its dependence on China for semiconductors and other critical technologies and is accusing Beijing of IP infringements and imposing arbitrary royalty rates without proper consultation with patent holders. China has criticized the EU's decision to work with the U.S. and restrict the export of advanced semiconductor technology and machinery to China. The move was aimed at curbing the nation's rapid progress in chip manufacturing and dominance in the field.
Making matters worse is China's 'partnership without limits' with its close ally, Russia. Beijing has refused to condemn Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, and the Chinese administration's call for peace is seen as mere lip service. Europe, meanwhile, has labeled Russia an 'aggressor' and raised concerns that Putin is likely to threaten other European nations if Ukraine is allowed to fall.
Despite President Xi's apparent snub, the EU is in no rush to write off closer ties with Beijing. "Informal discussions are ongoing both about setting the date for the EU China summit this year and the level of representation," said an EU official, while the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it did not have "any information to provide."
However, last month, Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president, had made it clear that while the bloc would keep "de-risking" by protecting its industry, "we can find agreements that could even expand our trade and investment ties." The EU's trade chief, Maroš Šefčovič, is set to visit China soon.
Though President Xi's unaccommodating approach signals business as usual, Trump's tariff war may push the two sides to work together. Stronger ties between the EU and China would counterbalance U.S. trade policies and address global challenges collaboratively. Trouble-free entry into each other's markets would create lucrative opportunities for goods and investments.
And, should Beijing leverage its clout with the Kremlin and facilitate peace talks between Moscow and Kyiv, it would go a long way in forging stronger ties with the bloc. Reports that China expects "Europe to have a seat at the negotiating table [in Ukraine peace talks]" have been welcomed by European leaders who fear that Trump is giving concessions to President Putin and siding with Russia at the expense of Europe's safety.
Besides the disparity in trade and allegations of unfair practices, one of the biggest hurdles to forging deeper ties is Beijing's trust deficit on the world stage. Though Lu Shaye, Beijing's special representative for European affairs, stated that China's policy towards Europe had always "advocated peace, friendship, cooperation, and mutual benefit," Beijing's support of Russia is viewed as siding with the enemy.
It would be interesting to see how Beijing and Brussels navigate the latest diplomatic impasse. While the EU wants to mark the historic year by deepening strategic ties, Beijing is playing its cards close to the chest.
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