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Dream On, Europe: All Hat, No Cattle In Ukraine

From Paris to Brussels, They Dream Until the Dream Comes True — While Putin Watches and Bides His Time.

European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, Keir Starmer, Emmanuel Macron, and Volodymyr Zelensky, meet at Lancaster House in London on March 2, 2025, to discuss Ukraine peace efforts. Credit: Justin Tallis/WPA Pool/Getty Images.

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG), which the Biden administration started three years ago to counter Russian advances in Ukraine, met on April 11, 2025, at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. The meeting was notable for a key detail: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth attended virtually, marking a shift from previous in-person U.S. participation.

Since the disastrous meeting between Ukrainian President Zelenskyy and the President at the White House on February 28, Europe and the United States have substantially diverged in their approach to Ukraine.

Under President Trump, America has brought on all of its political and geopolitical leverage to end the Russia-Ukraine war. Things started to heat up when Secretary of State Marco Rubio first held talks with his Russian counterpart in Saudi Arabia to restart the dialogue between Washington and Moscow. The two sides had not talked formally throughout the conflict.

Steve Witkoff, President Trump's special envoy, met with President Vladimir Putin on Friday in St. Petersburg to discuss finding a peace deal on Ukraine. It was Witkoff's second meeting in as many months. Putin was under pressure to accept Witkoff's terms. To coincide with Witkoff's arrival in St. Petersburg, Trump posted on Truth Social: "Russia has to get moving. Too many people are DYING, thousands a week, in a terrible and senseless war — a war that should have never happened, and wouldn't have happened, if I were president!!!"

Putin shakes hands with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff in Saint Petersburg, April 11, 2025. (Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images)

Meanwhile, Europe has gone the other way to help strengthen Ukraine militarily, although it doesn't have the manufacturing capacity. Soon after Zelenskyy's White House visit, the UK's Keir Starmer announced a “Coalition of the Willing” with France, Germany, and other European nations to continue defending Ukraine against Russia, while remaining open to the idea of peace––but only under strict Ukrainian terms.

The Brussels meeting on Friday was co-hosted by the UK Defence Secretary, John Healey, and the German Minister of Defence, Boris Pistorius. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte participated, along with defense ministers and representatives from nearly 50 nations. They discussed ongoing support for Ukraine, focusing on military aid and progress toward peace, with European nations taking a leading role.

But, Europe is in a tough spot, struggling economically after more than three years of war between Russia and Ukraine. Germany, coming off a recession and the Bloc's powerhouse, is expected to grow only about 0.7%, and this was before President Trump announced his tariffs on Europe. Germany is heavily dependent upon exports to the United States. Belgium has imposed austerity measures to control its ballooning debt, including raising the retirement age. France continues to engage in deficit spending, far above European Union limits, to try and placate its citizens. The region thrived for decades on cheap Russian energy, but since the Ukraine war, it has had to wean itself off it and opt for far more expensive alternatives, such as relying on LNG imports from the United States.

The Ukraine war, discussed at the UDCG meeting, exacerbates these issues by prolonging energy insecurity, heightening geopolitical risks and diverting resources to defense (e.g., NATO's push for higher spending). The question remains: How can Europe do all that it says it wants to do to help Ukraine?

The "Coalition of the Willing," a group of about 30 countries led by the UK and France, has made even more promises than the UDGC. The Coalition wants to provide weapons to Ukrainian soldiers, including artillery, air defense systems, missiles, and drones, when the military stores of the Coalition countries are running dry, insufficient to meet NATO’s minimum requirements of battlefront readiness. The UK pledged £1.6 billion for 5,000 air defense missiles, and other nations are increasing donations. These promises are meaningless, even if fulfilled, given that Ukraine has few soldiers left to fight a prolonged war.

The Coalition wants to provide a "reassurance force" to be deployed in Ukraine after a ceasefire or peace agreement comes into effect, to act as a deterrent against future Russian aggression. It is modeled after the United Nations Protection Force (UNPROFOR) in Bosnia and Kashmir aimed at stabilizing conflict zones, protecting humanitarian aid deliveries, and securing "safe areas," while providing troops with logistics and intelligence support.

Some Coalition partners want to send troops to Ukraine in a non-combat capacity, but Russia has rejected NATO or European forces in Ukraine as a condition of peace talks. Neutral EU states like Malta and Austria have not expressed support. Hungary and Slovakia also oppose military aid to Ukraine.

Without U.S. engagement, Europe's stance in Ukraine is all talk meant to pacify its liberal elite and, therefore, of little practical consequence on the ground. As America embarks on a trade war with China, President Trump's immediate attention is now focused on far more serious issues than the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Indeed, to signify that a peace deal must be agreed to quickly, Trump's Ukraine envoy, General Keith Kellogg, told the Times of London that Ukraine could be partitioned "almost like Berlin after World War Two" as part of a peace deal. However, the Coalition leaders didn't appear to be on board with the plan.

Infographic Dated March 17, 2025

The European leaders are in a bind. If they don't convince Zelenskyy to come to the peace table and support the United States, the conflict will continue to worsen for all parties in the region, less so for America, which has already practically exited the theater.

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