The Unsold Boom

PART I

The Missing Sales Pitch

Bet you didn’t know this, but core business investment shipments, known as CapEx on Wall Street — think companies that make machines, metal products, computers, electronics, cars — anyway, new orders are up 16.4 percent annually, for the past three months. And 14.1 percent year-on-year.

By the way, actual shipments of all this business equipment is up 18.9 percent at an annual rate over the past 3 months. And 11.4 percent over the past year.

Wait, though, the Atlanta Fed estimates that the economy is growing at a 5 percent annual rate in the third quarter, which ends next week, on September 30.

We haven’t seen numbers like this in several decades. When businesses are healthy, and producing, and purchasing, it is a great sign of economic health.

Everyone knows gasoline prices are too high. I get it. President Trump is trying to stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons, but gasoline prices are still too high.

However, that is not stopping the booming economy. Retail sales are growing at a strong 6 percent over the past year.

And basic consumer prices, excluding food and energy, are up only 2.4 percent over the past year. And 2.4 percent is a very low number.

Those prices rose 21 percent during the prior 4 years.

So, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is tweeting correctly that real weekly earnings for blue-collar manufacturing employees has increased 4.1 percent during Mr. Trump’s second term. Construction workers pay has jumped 5 percent since January 2025.

And Mr. Bessent goes on to note that average tax refunds have gone up $3,400 this tax season, and that’s a very big number to help ordinary working folks.

There is an economic boom going on. Yes, a lot of it is the super-intelligence, high-tech economy, which is a great blessing for job creators and working folks. 

Yet the boom is also encompassing manufacturing, transportation, and other sectors. It is broad-based. It is the best in 20 years.

More people are working than ever before in American history. With a 4.1 percent unemployment rate. Less than 200,000 weekly unemployment claims, which is to say nobody’s getting fired — while the boom has produced a million new private-sector jobs.

You would think with all this good economic news, and presumably a devotion to free enterprise, rather than big government socialism, the Republican Party should capture the midterms with ease.

Yet recent polling of likely voters, by McLaughlin and company, show the GOP is behind by 5 points on the generic congressional ballot — 48 percent to 43 percent. And 9 percent undecided. 

And among independents, it’s much worse. The GOP is down 47 percent to 28 percent. They’re barely winning the philosophical battle between capitalism and socialism.

Right now capitalism wins by 4 points, 45 percent to 41 percent. Yet that lead was 13 points just two months ago. So they’re not really making the case. 

And of those who watched the Dallas Midterm Convention, Mr. Trump’s $5,000 tax cut won big, by 52 percent to 39 percent. So Republicans, how about running on tax cuts and growth?

They have the money, they have the message, but they don’t have a sales pitch.

This economic boom among Republican leaders is the greatest story never told. I tell it all the time, but that’s just me.

When is the GOP going to get its messaging sales act together? That’s the big question.

PART II

The 43-Day Test

With 43 days until the midterm election, the mainstream press could be hedging its bets about Democratic victory and Republican destruction.

One of the first cracks in the armor is an NBC poll that shows Democrats edging out Republicans 50 percent to 45 percent among registered voters.

Looks like a nice lead, but is it, really? The story notes that it’s a much slimmer edge than the 12-point lead the Democrats had in the 2018 cycle.

Now I’ve said a million times, polls aren’t votes. So I’ll say it again. And this particular poll undercounts Republicans by 4 points, 40 percent to 44 percent, because after all Republicans carried the 2024 election with 50 percent. Plus, these are registered, not likely voters.

It is interesting, though, isn’t it. My friends in the lefty press are kind of pulling in their horns.

Then there’s the front of this morning’s Wall Street Journal, reporting that “Republicans Are Unleashing Their Fundraising Advantage Against the Democrats.”

And although money can’t buy you love, the GOP numbers are enormous. In the first 18 days of September, $204 million. That’s $83 million more than Democrat ads.

The spending includes $62 million in Texas for Senate candidate Ken Paxton, compared to $17 million behind his opponent, the Democratic socialist, James Talarico.

This does not include other political action committee money. And perhaps most important, while the Republicans are running some really solid candidates — like Dan Sullivan in Alaska, Roger Marshall in Kansas, Michael Whatley in North Caroline, Mike Collins of Georgia, Michele Tafoya in Minnesota, and Mike Rogers in Michigan — the Democrats are running these far-left wing socialists like Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Peggy Flanagan in Minnesota, the aforementioned Mr. Talarico in Texas, and far-left Troy Jackson in Maine.

It’s really the mirror image of Republican mistakes in 2022. And although gasoline prices are high, and that’s an issue, it’s also true they’re almost identical to gas prices under President Biden, and a bit ironic because Democrats hate fossil fuels, and if they take Congress they’ll go for radical climate change again. Yet despite high gasoline prices, consumers are spending rapidly. 

This is perhaps best illustrated in California which is $6.16 a gallon, compared to $4.47 nationwide. Not downplaying the gas issue, but there’s a lot of other very good things going on in Mr. Trump’s economy.

Private jobs are up by a million since he was re-elected. Federal jobs have declined by about 350,000.

The economy is being restructured away from big-government socialism.

Meanwhile, even with the bump in gasoline prices, where yes, we feel your pain, real weekly earnings for blue-collar manufacturing workers have risen 4.1 percent. While blue-collar construction workers have seen a 5 percent increase since January 2025, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

America has the hottest economy in the world. Even with the bump up in gasoline prices, as the president stops Iran’s nuclear capabilities, consumer spending is strong.

Business investment spending, capex, productivity output per hour, all strong and record-breaking.

Weekly unemployment claims, rock bottom. People are getting hired, nobody’s getting fired.

Stock markets setting record highs for over 150 million investors. A year ago Republicans cut taxes — and the economy is growing at 5 percent, according to the Atlanta Fed.

Drug prices are coming down. And despite the doomsayers, America is winning the AI war against Communist China. The border is sealed. Crime is down. And there may even be an American October surprise to deal with the last vestiges of Iran.

Americans don’t like socialism, they do love our country. Voters want common sense, not crazy values. And that’s why in the next 43 days nobody should underestimate Mr. Trump and the GOP.

Lawrence Kudlow is a Fox News Media contributor and host of both “Kudlow” on weekdays and the nationally syndicated “Larry Kudlow Show” each Saturday. This column is adapted from his monologues on “Kudlow.”