Europe’s Security Guarantee Fixation Is A Fool’s Errand

Everyone is talking about security guarantees. Ukraine wants them from the United States should Russia attack again. Europe intends to provide Ukraine with money, weapons, and support but wants the U.S. to contribute the lion's share and sign security guarantees. U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer is trying to convince President Trump after French President Macron failed.

However, Trump understands that security guarantees are meaningless. At his first cabinet meeting this week, he said, "I'm not going to provide security guarantees beyond very much... we're going to have Europe do that."

President Trump is leading global efforts to bring about peace in the Ukraine-Russia conflict - without any security guarantees from the United States. He is driven by humanitarian need because too many lives have been lost, and Ukraine has been decimated. He understands that security guarantees or not, should Russia attack Ukraine or any other country again, the social media outcry would be so loud and anti-Russian that even Russia's staunchest friends would begin isolating Moscow.

As we said recently, even if Russia persisted with another invasion, it would be folly for the Kremlin to ignore how the world spoke in unison just three decades ago. Kuwait was not part of NATO and had no rock-solid Article-5 security guarantees, except an unwritten commitment from America that no one would attack the oil states. When Saddam Hussein invaded, 42 countries, including many Arab nations, supported the Western alliance to kick him out of Kuwait and liberate the oil-rich state.

Just three years ago, America, the EU, and the members of the G7, including Japan and Canada, rushed to Ukraine's aid when Russia attacked. They continue to pour billions to help Ukraine - despite Kyiv having no security guarantees in place.

Are security guarantees necessary when countries are likely to provide security anyway? Why is Ukraine obsessed with joining NATO? As a non-NATO member, isn't Ukraine convinced that its friends went all out to help? So profound has been the EU's solidarity with Ukraine that EU nations have significantly suffered economic costs themselves—by providing for over 6 million Ukrainian refugees, contributing scarce funds from their budgets to Ukraine, and cutting off from Russia's cheap energy supplies thereby driving up the costs of manufacturing and exports to their economy’s detriment.

Besides, security guarantees in that part of Europe have never held, and, therefore, never worked. In 1994, Ukraine signed the Budapest Memorandum with Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. According to the Memorandum, in return for giving up Ukraine's Soviet-era nuclear weapons, the major powers would recognize Ukraine's right to exist as a sovereign, independent state without any interference, political or military. But the West never stopped trying to influence Kyiv, beginning with the 2004 Orange Revolution, attempting to turn Kyiv into becoming a Western partner, and culminating in the 2014 Maidan Revolution, which toppled a legitimately elected pro-Kremlin government in Kyiv. Russia then used force to annex Crimea, which comprehensively violated the agreement.

Minsk I, signed in September 2014, was a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine, Russia, and separatist forces in eastern Ukraine. It aimed to halt fighting in the Donbas region, establish a buffer zone, and allow OSCE monitoring. It included 12 points, like prisoner swaps and local elections. This security agreement didn't survive either —fighting resumed within months, leading to Minsk II in 2015.

Minsk II aimed to revive the failed Minsk I ceasefire in Ukraine's Donbas conflict. It mandated a complete ceasefire, withdrawal of heavy weapons, OSCE monitoring, Ukrainian control of its border, and constitutional reforms for decentralization. It involved Ukraine, Russia, separatists, France, and Germany. Minsk II was also largely a failure; sporadic clashes persisted. Worse, the West's motivations in supporting Minsk II are suspect. Former German chancellor Angela Merkel, in a 2022 interview with Die Zeit, stated on record that the Minsk II agreement was intended to "give Ukraine time" to strengthen itself. She noted that the conflict was apparent and unresolved, but the delay allowed Ukraine to bolster its capabilities, which has become evident in its later resilience.

Trump has a clearer understanding of history than many political leaders. His points regarding Ukraine are all valid, except that these facts are anathema to Europe, Ukraine, and the global elite: Nuclear-powered Russia has a reasonable claim in insisting that its neighbor not be a NATO member, that the West has interfered in Kyiv's affairs for too long, and it is time to stop. America and Russia have far more significant issues to deal with, such as signing arms reduction agreements so that Trump can reduce the Pentagon budget, given America's unsustainable debt trap, and embracing Russia as a partner to prevent it from falling further into China's embrace.

Trump's vision is a world where everyone trades and respects each other, like in a business transaction. To consummate a business deal, one party doesn't ordinarily question the other party's ideological purity as a prerequisite, with obvious exceptions for Mafia or gangs. Trump is guided more by the classic free-market economist Adam Smith, who said, "Trade is a transaction where both parties benefit," reflecting the idea that voluntary exchanges only occur when all involved see value in them.

The key word here is "voluntary," not "forced," as in the case of a "security guarantee."

Trump 2.0

1. Trump Says Tariffs On Mexico, Canada Will Arrive On March 4, Vows To Double China Levies—Hamza Shaban, Yahoo Finance

2. One Month Of Trump Reminds Americans What We’ve Been Missing—Karol Markowicz, Fox News

3. "You're Fired!"—Trump Leads By Example, Reshaping Government And The Workplace—Rajkamal Rao, TIPP Insights

4. The Media Is Having Its Worst Week Ever, And We’re Only One Month Into Trump 2.0—John Loftus, DCNF

5. Trump State Dept Notches Roughly $60 Billion In ‘Savings’ After Taking Torch To Wasteful Funding, Memo Says—Wallace White, DCNF

6. Trump Teases Enormous Staff Cuts At Environmental Protection Agency—Ireland Owens, DCNF

7. Trump Is Right – Cut Everything, Even Bloated Defense Budget—Rep. John J. Duncan Jr., The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

8. Regretful Illegal Migrants Flocking Home In Droves After Trump Border Crackdown—Jason Hopkins, DCNF

9. DHS Is Encouraging Illegal Aliens To Self-Deport—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal

10. Trump’s Education Department Investigates Civil Rights Violations Ignored By Biden—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal

11. FCC Chair Swats Away Questions About Trump’s Demand Comcast Be Punished Over MSNBC Coverage—Dominick Mastrangelo, The Hill

12. Pam Bondi Announces When Public Will Finally See Epstein Files—Hailey Gomez, DCNF

World Affairs

13. Tough Times At Foggy Bottom—Peter van Buren, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

14. How America’s Left Uses Foreign Aid To Undermine US Interests Around The World—Max Primorac, The Daily Signal

15. Unmasking How ‘Foreign Aid Undermined US Interests’—Virginia Allen & Tim Kennedy, The Daily Signal

16. USAID Funded Pet Apps, Fashion Companies, Designer Furniture, Sen. Ernst Reveals—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal

17. USAID Staff Given 15 Minutes To Collect Belongings, Warned Against Bringing Weapons—Thomas English, DCNF

18. Silenced and Seized: How Ukraine’s War, Gaza’s Land Grab, and Europe’s Free Speech Assault Are Fueling A Global Fight For Liberty—Kurt Wallace, The Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

19. Trump And Europe Fail To Realize That Russia Has A Vote—Larry C. Johnson, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity

20. France Plunges Ever Deeper Into Statism—Ulrich Fromy, Mises Wire

Politics

21. IRS Contractor Charles Littlejohn Leaked Trump’s Tax Returns, But We’re Now Learning How Much Damage He Really Did—Byron York, Washington Examiner

22. The Gigantic Slush Fund Inside The Biden White House—Liz Peek, Fox News

23. FBI Looking Into Comey’s Off-The-Books ‘Honeypot’ Operation Targeting 2016 Trump Campaign—Kerry Picket, The Washington Times  

24. Biden’s Lies About The Border Are Now Plain For All To See—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights

25. Senate Democrats Seek To Hamstring Trump On Energy Policies—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal

26. Musk Is ‘Shredding’ Government? Not Even Close—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights

27. Germany—Like Most Democracies—Counted Votes On Election Night. Why Can’t The US Do the Same?—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal

28. House Republicans Pass Major Budget Hurdle—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal

29. Rep. Carter Calls On Georgia Senators To Break With Democrats To Support Female Athletes—Adam Pack, DCNF

30. Ethics Complaint Filed Against Texas Republican For ‘Hot Mic’ Moment—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal

Economics

31. The Gold At Fort Knox Was Stolen From Americans—Ryan McMaken, Mises Wire

32. How MMT Advocates View Money And The State—Frank Shostak, Mises Wire

33. Eli Lilly Announces Plan To Invest $27 Billion In America Amid Trump Tariff Threats—Timothy Sekerak, DCNF

34. The New GOP-Organized Labor Alliance Will Not Help the Working Classes—Connor O'Keeffe, Mises Wire

35. 5 Big Controversies Facing The Fed’s ‘Consumer Watchdog’ Agency As DOGE Eyes Its End—Fred Lucas, The Daily Signal

36. Restoring Trust in Public Health: Preventing Waste And Fraud In National Emergency Assistance—Robert Moffit, The Daily Signal

General

37. Elon Musk Urges Retired Air Traffic Controllers To Come Back—Filip Timotija, The Hill

38. ‘Greatest Threat To Free Speech’: Ted Cruz Predicts Legal Action Against Big Tech For Censoring Conservative Media—Mariane Angela, DCNF

39. Universities: Dysfunctional Incubators Of Socialism—Thomas J. DiLorenzo, Mises Wire

40. ‘Pants On Fire’: Former Biden DOJ Attorney Sanctioned For Lying To Judicial Panel In Transgender Case—Katelynn Richardson, DCNF

41. Bezos Shakes Up Washington Post Opinion Pages—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal

42. Byron Donalds Confirms Run For Florida Governor—Hailey Gomez, DCNF