The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a key gauge of consumer sentiment, declined from 49.8 in March to 49.1 in April, representing a 1.4% decrease. After hitting a 40-month high of 54.0 in December, the index eased to 51.9 in January and 52.0 in February before falling below the 50.0 threshold in March. April's reading of 49.1 marks the second consecutive month in pessimistic territory. Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the index had remained in optimistic territory until February.
April’s reading of 49.1 is 0.1% lower than its historical average of 49.2.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the first monthly measure of consumer confidence. It has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. (From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this Index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.)
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,452 adults from March 26 to 28 for the April index. The online survey utilized TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample. A more detailed methodology is available here. The Index ranges from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In April, two of them declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined by 2.6%, from 46.2 in March to 45.0 in April.
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, increased by 0.4% from its previous reading of 55.3 in March to 55.5 this month.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, declined from 47.9 in March to 46.7 this month, representing a 2.5% decline. This component has been below 50.0 in the pessimistic territory for 44 consecutive months since September 2021.
Party Dynamics
With Donald Trump's election as the 47th President, Democrats' confidence tumbled from 62.9 in October to 43.2 in November. However, it increased in December to 47.6. It dropped again in January to 45.7. It further declined to 37.5 in February and 32.3 in March. In April it increased a notch to 32.6.
Meanwhile, Republicans' confidence skyrocketed from 34.8 in October to 64.7 in November. It has improved from 69.0 in February to 70.6 this month.
In November, independent voters' confidence rose by 8.6 points, or 20%, to 51.3. (The Index posted its first positive reading in nearly five years after remaining in pessimistic territory for 56 months, beginning in April 2020, shortly after the onset of the pandemic). In March, it dropped from 47.0 in February to 43.8. The slide continued in April and the independents scored 40.0.
Investor Confidence
Respondents are considered "investors" if they currently have at least $10,000 invested in the stock market, either personally or jointly with a spouse, either directly or through a retirement plan. One-third (33%) of respondents met this criterion, and 61% were classified as non-investors. We were unable to determine the status of six percent of respondents.
Investor confidence rose by 1.2% (0.7 points) to 60.9, while non-investor confidence dropped by 2.0 points (4.5%) to 42.6.
Momentum
Comparing a measure's short-term average to its long-term average is one way to detect its underlying momentum. For example, if the 3-month average is higher than the 6-month average, the indicator is bullish; similarly, if the 6-month average exceeds the 12-month average, the same holds.
In April, the Economic Optimism Index, along with the Six-Month Outlook, Personal Financial Outlook, and confidence in federal policies, fell below their three-month moving averages, suggesting a slowdown in sentiment.
Demographic Analysis
The number of groups in the positive zone indicates the breadth of optimism in American society. This month, the number of demographic groups in the optimism zone remained unchanged at nine, as it was in the previous month.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, it had jumped from eight in October to 18 in November, indicating widespread optimism.
Nine groups improved on the index, compared to five in March, 11 in February, and five in January.
Economic optimism levels for 12 of 21 demographic groups are lower in April 2025 than the historical average of the past 291 months, since we began tracking in February 2001.
RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index
RCM/TIPP also releases our companion index, known as the RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index, the only metric to track the financial stress felt by Americans monthly.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress, with 50 considered neutral.
The Index declined 0.2 points (0.3%) from 63.9 in March to 63.7 in April, reflecting a slight easing of financial stress among Americans.
For context, the last time the Index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1. The Index has averaged 60.3 since December 2007. March’s reading of 63.9 exceeds this by 6.0%, signaling heightened financial stress. Notably, the Index peaked at 70.5 in October 2023, marking its highest reading since December 2008 (71.0). Since then, it has declined for the better, reaching 63.7 in April 2025.
Inflation
The survey showed that 80% are worried about inflation—50% are very concerned, and another 30% are somewhat concerned.
Americans continue to suffer because real wages have not increased, despite the CPI rate falling from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.8% in February 2025.
The Federal Reserve believes that long-run inflation of 2%, measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with its maximum employment and price stability mandate.
Recession
Over four in ten (41%) believe the United States is in a recession, while 32% think it is not. Another third (28%) are not sure. The share of Americans who have a positive view increased from 27% in November to 32% in April.
Meanwhile, one-half (50%) think the U.S. economy is not improving, while 36% believe it is improving. The share of Americans having a positive view increased from 27% in November to 36% in April.
John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets, observed:
Progress is one of the constants in American life, while barriers to progress are almost invariably governmental. A trade war is anti-progress exactly because it suffocates the very division of labor that makes it possible for people to produce at levels they never could on their own. As consumer confidence declines even a little, it's not unreasonable to wonder if the source of reduced confidence can be found in Washington, D.C.
Since President Trump’s re-election, economic optimism has generally stayed in positive territory, reflecting renewed confidence in his leadership. Republican sentiment surged to 70.6 in April, while Democrats’ confidence plummeted. Independents initially showed a post-election boost, but their optimism slipped again in April. Confidence in federal policies is gradually recovering after years of gloom. Inflation remains a concern, but more Americans believe the economy is improving, and investor sentiment continues to strengthen. With Trump back at the helm, Americans are cautiously optimistic about the economic road ahead.
Release Schedule Of RCM/TIPP Indexes For the Rest Of 2025
The RealClearMarkets website releases the report at 10 a.m. EST on the release days.
- May 25: Tuesday, May 6
- Jun 25: Tuesday, June 3
- Jul 25: Tuesday, July 1
- Aug 25: Tuesday, August 5
- Sep 25: Tuesday, September 2
- Oct 25: Tuesday, October 7
- Nov 25: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 25: Tuesday, December 2
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com and more
Trump 2.0
1. Trump Starts Undoing JFK’s Worst Mistake—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
2. Trump’s Bold Economic Plan: Fair Trade, Tax Cuts, and Growth, Says Newsmax CEO Ruddy—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
3. Trump Declares National Emergency To Impose ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs—Reagan Reese, DCNF
4. Trump Celebrates Strong Job Gains After Liberation Day—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
5. Yes, Trump Could Serve A Third Term. Law Professor Explains How—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
6. Trump Supports Proxy Voting For Expectant Mothers—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
7. Trump Backs Senate’s Budget Plan: ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
8. Trump Urges Fed Chair Powell To Cut Interest Rates—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
9. Trump Stands Firm On Tariff Policies, Encourages Investment—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
10. "China Played It Wrong:" Trump—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
11. Trump Admin Freezes Hundreds Of Millions Of Dollars To Another Ivy League School—Reagan Reese, DCNF
12. Number Of Unaccompanied Alien Children Arriving At Border Hits Record Low Under Trump—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
13. White House Fires NSC Officials After Loomer Raises Loyalty Concerns—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
14. Trump, Senate Leadership Urge GOP Senators To Think Twice Before Aiding Dem Effort To Tank Canada Tariffs—Adam Pack, DCNF
15. Americans Are Applying To Work For Kash Patel’s FBI At Historic Rates—Eireann Van Natta, DCNF
16. She Lived American Dream, Sees That Same Spirit Of Opportunity Again In Trump Admin—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
17. Army Reserve ‘Taking Appropriate Action’ Against Captain Who Accused Trump Admin Of Erasing Trans People—Eireann Van Natta, DCNF
World Affairs
18. Strategy To Trump China On The World Stage—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
19. ‘Breathtaking’: New Heritage Foundation Documentary Exposes Dramatic Chinese Nuclear Weapon Expansion—Anna Gustafson & Wilson Beaver, The Daily Signal
20. Small Town Sees Big Win Against Chinese Communist Party Takeover—Philip Lenczycki, DCNF
21. Transactional Weakness Tips The Balance Of Power – ‘Hold To No Illusions; There Is Nothing Beyond This Reality’—Alastair Crooke, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
22. Vietnam Wants To Negotiate, Eliminate Tariffs On U.S. Imports—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
23. European Leaders Ask For Negotiation On Tariffs—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
24. A Conference For Peace And Prosperity— Rep. John J. Duncan Jr., Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
25. Lawfare Isn’t Beaten—In France Or America—Daniel McCarthy, The Daily Signal
Economy
26. Hello Tariffs, My Friend—Trump’s Trade Weapon Delivers Early Results—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
27. If Trump’s Tariffs Work, It Will Be Epic—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
28. Cortes: They’d Rather Tank The Market Than See Trump Succeed—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
29. Trump’s “Liberation Day” Tariffs Are A Mistake—Connor O'Keeffe, Mises Wire
30. Tariffs Will Be ‘Not Full Reciprocal,’ Trump Announces On ‘Liberation Day’—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
31. Brit Hume Predicts When We’ll Feel Ripple Effects From Trump’s Tariffs—Mariane Angela, DCNF
32. Grassley Teams With Democrat on Senate Bill To Claw Back Tariff Authority From President—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
33. Inflation As A Centralizing Force—David Brady, Jr., Mises Wire
34. Walmart Considers Joining Bid For TikTok As Deadline Looms—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
35. These Poor Countries Are Getting the Miracle Cure From Oil and Gas—Vijay Jayaraj, The Daily Signal
Politics
36. What Was The Purpose Of Opening Our Southern Border?—Victor Davis Hanson, The Daily Signal
37. Who’s Funding The ‘Burn A Tesla, Save Democracy’ Protests?—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
38. Journalist Matt Taibbi Files $10 Million Libel Lawsuit Against Democratic Congress Member—Katelynn Richardson, DCNF
39. Supreme Court Case Could Allow States To Strip Medicaid Funding From Planned Parenthood—Moira Gleason, The Daily Signal
40. Biden Department Of Education Met With Far-Left Groups While Discussing Pro-Trans Title IX Rewrite—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
41. California Democrats Defy Federal Law, Reject Bills To Protect Girls Sports—Moira Gleason, The Daily Signal
42. Blue State Athletes Urge Trump Admin To Step In As Male Continues Dominating Female Track Competitions—Katelynn Richardson, DCNF
43. Backed By Trump, Athletes Lead The Way In Ending The Left’s Hellish Gender Dystopia—Mary Rooke, DCNF
44. Police Report On Nashville Transgender Shooter Plays Into Left’s Narrative—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
45. DeSantis Cracks Down On Colleges Repackaging DEI Despite Florida Ban—R.E. Wermus, The Daily Signal
46. DeSantis Slams Rep. Randy Fine For ‘Underperformance’ In Florida Elections—R.E. Wermus, The Daily Signal
47. Cruz, Banks Seek To Give School Choice To Military Families In New Bill—Tony Kinnett, The Daily Signal
48. Fauci’s Wife, An NIH Bioethicist Who Never Probed Ethics Of Wuhan Research, Fired—Emily Kopp, DCNF
49. Exposing NIH-Funded Research: Why I’m Blowing The Whistle On Corruption—Isaiah Hankel, The Daily Signal
50. Senate Follows House In Killing Biden Reg Imposing Curbs On Energy Use Of Walk-In Coolers—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
51. Democrat Fundraiser ActBlue Faces Hill Scrutiny Of Its Operations—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
52. This Republican Was On To USAID Corruption Before DOGE Even Existed—Bradley Devlin, The Daily Signal
53. Top Aide Finally Admits Biden Was Rapidly Declining, Falling Asleep By The Pool—Reagan Reese, DCNF
54. The House’s Harness Race Of The Horrible—Al Perrotta, The Daily Signal
55. Republicans Sabotaged By Their Own Feminist Infiltrators, Again—Mary Rooke, DCNF
General Affairs
56. Media, Please Grow Up—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
57. JD Vance Explains How To Save Western Civilization—JD Vance, The Daily Signal
58. Boston Judge Mark Summerville Should Go Back to Law School—Hans von Spakovsky, The Daily Signal
59. Jeffrey Goldberg Congratulates Himself All Over PBS—Tim Graham, The Daily Signal
60. Entertainment Industry Didn’t Get November’s Memo: Americans Are Tired of Your Political Rants—Tim Young, The Daily Signal
61. Sen. Roger Marshall: Dr. Oz Will Save Medicare, Strengthen Medicaid, Secure A Healthier America— Sen. Roger Marshall, The Daily Signal
62. Dr. Oz Confirmed To Oversee Medicare And Medicaid Programs—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
63. Improving Child Health: Government-Run Health Care Is No Remedy—Robert Moffit, The Daily Signal
64. SNAP Shouldn’t Subsidize Slurpees—Victor Joecks, The Daily Signal
65. Up In Smoke? House Conservatives Eye Ban On Marijuana In DC Budget Bill—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
66. ‘Anything To Get A Tax Cut’: Carville Accuses ‘Rich Jewish’ Republicans Of Ignoring Nazism Out Of Greed For ‘Money’—Jason Cohen, DCNF
67. Border Czar Tom Homan Celebrates Historic Low Border Encounters—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
68. If Caesar Was A (skeptical) Climatologist—Joe Bastardi, CFACT
69. We Were Paying For What? Trump HHS Slashes Hundreds Of Millions In Woke LGBTQ Grants—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
70. The Feds Are Hiding The Eagle Death Data—David Wojick, CFACT
