President Trump's decision to call Russian President Vladimir Putin and reveal the highlights of that call to the rest of the world was one of the most seminal moments in global geopolitics in at least thirty years.
Credit President Trump for highlighting several realities everyone knows but no Western politician was willing to disclose for fear of being ostracized. But then, Trump won precisely because he eschewed collective wisdom, and in so doing, he has allowed the world to reexamine long-standing and deeply-held beliefs.
The main idea is that NATO has outlived its usefulness as an alliance. In the immediate aftermath of World War II, NATO was founded in 1949 with just 12 members, most of whom had been destroyed by hostilities over the past decade. As the Cold War strengthened, NATO slowly expanded to 18 members until the Berlin Wall fell, ending the Cold War.
Expanding the post-World War II partnership during the 1990s was the right thing to do as the various former Soviet states attempted to define their nations' missions, and it was not clear what each would do. A wayward nation-state, still holding Soviet weaponry and methods, could have potentially threatened its neighbors.
So, how much did NATO expand? In 1999 the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland gained NATO membership. On March 29, 2004, under the urging of President George W. Bush in the wake of the global war on terror, NATO expanded by seven states on a single day—Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. Each was a Soviet satellite during the Cold War. With the induction of Finland, NATO now has 31 member countries. The military bloc’s expansion has become the primary call of every Western leader, and like sheep in a pen, politicians have made the goal an end to itself. The justification was to strengthen an alliance to include so many countries, with no enemies left, as a bulwark against Russian aggression.
For at least 17 years, Russia has drawn a red line regarding NATO expansion into two countries - Georgia and Ukraine - insisting that their assimilation into NATO was unacceptable to Moscow. Both countries have a sizable Russian ethnic population, and their integration into NATO threatened Russia at its borders. On April 4, 2008, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko warned on the sidelines of a NATO summit:
Georgia's and Ukraine's membership in the alliance is a huge strategic mistake which would have the most serious consequences for pan-European security.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which just entered its fourth year, was primarily triggered by Ukraine's insistence on becoming a part of NATO. Just the other day, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who is serving an expanded term under Martial Law, offered to step down if Ukraine could join NATO. His obsession with joining the military alliance has prolonged the war to such depths that more than a million people have been killed on all sides. While he asserts the right of a sovereign nation to make decisions of association, seeking NATO membership would put NATO weapons and forces on Russia's border. America would never tolerate such a massive nuclear-armed military threat in next-door Canada or Mexico; why would Russia allow it? Russia would rather fight to its very end to prevent the occurrence, deeming it an existential threat.
Set up as a defensive network of member states with Article 5 protections, which state that an attack on one nation is an attack on all, NATO has certainly achieved deterrence against aggression. But the last three years have proven that Russia does not have the military might to threaten a single NATO nation or even a non-NATO one. Against the brave Ukrainians, Russia has faced enormous losses in soldiers, resources, economy, and, most importantly, prestige - all despite having unwavering support from China, which has repeatedly emphasized a "partnership with no limits." Besides, Russia had quiet diplomatic backing from several large countries––including Brazil, India, Saudi Arabia, and South Africa–who refused to condemn Russia and accepted Moscow’s argument that Ukraine becoming part of NATO was an existential threat.
Russia can't hope to have such diplomatic cover if it attacks another nation. Who would be a likely target? One can't imagine Russia invading another country using its Navy or Air Forces alone. A land attack is vital in modern warfare. So, which country could Russia target that it could reach by land?
14 European countries are not currently in NATO. Three (Cyprus, Ireland, and Malta) are not reachable by land from Russia. Only Belarus borders Russia and is known to be a staunch ally of Moscow. Does anyone believe that Putin would cross another nation's borders, presumably a NATO country, to attack one of the remaining 10 nations? The idea is preposterous.
Even if Russia did invade, the diplomatic response from Russia's most valued friends would be loudly critical, so strong that Moscow would be forced to withdraw immediately. Even if Russia ignored its friends and continued its act of aggression, the world does not need a Western-led international order under NATO Article 5 protections to rush to an invaded country's rescue. Kuwait was not part of NATO, and when Saddam Hussein invaded it, 42 countries, including Arab nations, supported the Western alliance to kick him out of Kuwait and liberate the oil-rich state.
There's also the question of how effective NATO is. The alliance has been extraordinarily united with Ukraine, but when it comes to delivering weapons or training, NATO hasn't been as effective. If NATO were the immense power that it is made out to be, Russia wouldn't have annexed all of Ukraine's four eastern oblasts and over 21% of Ukraine's territory.
Let's abolish NATO once and for all and require each member country to invest in its own defense. Most countries in the world do not belong to a collective defense umbrella and are doing just fine.
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