As India and Pakistan steadily escalate military actions against each other, all the while insisting that they are not the ones escalating and it is the other side that is, the situation is quickly spiraling out of control.
According to the Indian Express, one of India's oldest media organizations, Pakistan Air Force jets raided Srinagar on Saturday morning, with the Indian armed forces retaliating to the raid "effectively." Pakistan also launched multiple drone attacks in Indian border districts on Friday night and Saturday morning, with India's air defense system intercepting them. India, which continues its offensive against Pakistani targets, announced that it was closing 24 airports for business in the north and west of the country through May 15.
India, the sixth-largest economy in the world and a member of the G-20 spends nearly $75 billion annually on its military and is a vastly superior power.
Pakistan is a failing state, having imprisoned its most influential political leader, Imran Khan, and is barely managing to remain relevant after the United States disastrously withdrew from Afghanistan. Its economy is in shambles, and were it not for an IMF loan, Pakistan would have been in imminent danger of collapsing. The country is facing strong separatist resistance in the Baluchistan province, which borders Iran. The Northwest Territories, bordering Afghanistan, have always been the Wild West, where locals speak more Pashtun than Urdu, the official language. Pakistani government officials shudder at the thought of being deployed to either region for work, fearing for their lives.
But Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state. It conducted its first nuclear tests in May 1998, shortly after India carried out nuclear tests. Estimates suggest Pakistan possesses around 170-180 nuclear warheads as of 2025, with the capacity to produce more through its uranium enrichment and plutonium production facilities. The program is centered on ballistic missiles like the Shaheen series, capable of delivering nuclear payloads over 2,000 km, covering most of India. Pakistan also has tactical nuclear weapons, such as the Nasr missile, designed for battlefield use, indicating a focus on countering conventional military threats. Pakistan's nuclear doctrine emphasizes a first-use policy, reserving the right to use nuclear weapons in response to a conventional attack that threatens its sovereignty.
As the current conflict brews, many Indian leaders are arguing for the complete takeover of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir as a way to eliminate future terror threats. [After the Sino-Indian War in 1962, Kashmir was divided into three regions - Indian-occupied (45.6%), Pakistan-occupied (35.2%), and China-occupied (19.2%)]. Brahma Chellaney, a veteran geopolitical strategist and syndicated columnist, wrote a piece carried by TIPP, arguing that if Pakistan refuses to end its support for cross-border terrorism, India has every right to withdraw from the now-paused Indus Waters Treaty, which New Delhi has diligently obeyed, although the agreement gives Pakistan an 80-20 share of the Indus basin.
Pakistan is no match for India's conventional forces. The vexing question the world faces, then, is whether Pakistan would use its nuclear arsenal against India if it felt an "existential threat."
Historically, the leading nuclear powers have insisted that they alone are responsible enough to manage the command-and-control structure of their arsenals. These powers have moved mountains to prevent more nations from obtaining offensive nuclear weapons (Iran, North Korea, and Libya). However, what has the world done to denuclearize countries that already have nuclear weapons?
The Budapest Memorandum could give us powerful clues about how to solve the problem. Suppose the world offers to buy Pakistan's entire nuclear arsenal for $100 billion with a stipulated condition that Pakistan can never again develop another nuclear weapon, effectively changing its status to a non-nuclear-weapon state by signing the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). In addition, Pakistan would have to eradicate its terror cells completely under the supervision of the UN Security Council. In other words, rock-solid legal enforcement must be built into any potential agreement. In return, the $100 billion, spread out over, say, 20 years, would allow Pakistan to develop into a state that the community of nations can welcome. Additional trade incentives could reward Pakistan's continuing good behavior for developing into a responsible nation-state.
The Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances was a diplomatic agreement signed on December 5, 1994, by Ukraine, Russia, the United States, and the United Kingdom. It was a brilliant way to promote nuclear non-proliferation and denuclearize Ukraine.
When the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991, Ukraine, as a newly independent state, inherited a significant portion of the Soviet nuclear arsenal stationed on its territory, including approximately 1,900 strategic nuclear warheads (e.g., for intercontinental ballistic missiles like the SS-19 and SS-24), and over 2,500 tactical nuclear weapons (e.g., for shorter-range systems). Ukraine also had 176 ICBMs, 44 strategic bombers (e.g., Tu-95 and Tu-160), and associated infrastructure, making it the third-largest nuclear power in the world at the time, behind only the U.S. and Russia.
While Ukraine physically possessed these weapons, it lacked operational control. The Soviet nuclear command structure was centralized in Moscow, and Russia retained the codes and technical authority to arm and launch strategic weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons were less tightly controlled, giving Ukraine potential access, though their use would have required significant technical expertise and infrastructure that Ukraine did not fully possess.
The Budapest Memorandum provided security assurances to Ukraine in exchange for its agreement to give up its nuclear weapons and to accede to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear-weapon state. By 1996, Ukraine had transferred all nuclear warheads to Russia for dismantlement and destroyed or repurposed its delivery systems.
To be sure, the Budapest Memorandum had its issues. The lack of enforceable security guarantees left Ukraine vulnerable, prompting debates about whether a NATO-like Article 5 agreement could have deterred Russian aggression, first in Crimea and later in 2022 in the ongoing conflict. However, the world is far safer today because Ukraine gave up its warheads; otherwise, the theater would probably have already seen the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons, causing even more death and destruction.
The world stands at a precipice. President Trump must spearhead a bold, enforceable denuclearization deal in South Asia to avert catastrophe. Mr. President, your strong, unconventional, and proven leadership can turn this vision into reality and bring peace to heaven on earth. The time to act is now.
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