In recent days, headlines have sounded alarms of economic doom. The media were largely silent during Biden’s presidency, even though confidence levels were lower than May’s reading in 36 of his 48 months in office. The RealClearMarkets/TIPP survey tells a more measured story: consumer confidence has weakened, but there is no evidence of panic in the data. Moreover, the Index has been lower than its current levels for 127 of the 292 months (43%) since TIPP began tracking, making the media frenzy seem disproportionate.
The RealClearMarkets/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, a key gauge of consumer sentiment, declined from 49.1 in April to 47.9 in May, representing a 2.4% decrease. After hitting a 40-month high of 54.0 in December, the Index eased to 51.9 in January and 52.0 in February before falling below the 50.0 threshold in March. May's reading of 47.9 marks the third consecutive month in the pessimistic zone. Since President Trump’s re-election in November 2024, the Index remained optimistic until February.
May’s reading of 47.9 is 2.6% lower than its historical average of 49.2.
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is the first monthly measure of consumer confidence. It has established a strong track record of foreshadowing the confidence indicators issued later each month by the University of Michigan and The Conference Board. (From February 2001 to October 2023, TIPP released this Index monthly in collaboration with its former sponsor and media partner, Investor's Business Daily.)
RCM/TIPP surveyed 1,400 adults from April 30 to May 2 for the May Index. The online survey utilized TIPP's network of panels to obtain the sample. A more detailed methodology is available here. The Index ranges from 0 to 100. Readings above 50 indicate optimism, while those below 50 signal pessimism. A score of 50 is neutral.
RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index
The RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index has three key components. In May, two of them declined.
- The Six-Month Economic Outlook, which measures how consumers perceive the economy's prospects in the next six months, declined by 3.1%, from 45.0 in April to 43.6 in May.
- The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, declined by 5.4% from its previous reading of 55.5 in April to 52.5 this month.
- Confidence in Federal Economic Policies, a proprietary RCM/TIPP measure of views on the effectiveness of government economic policies, increased from 46.7 in April to 47.6 this month, reflecting a 1.9% gain. This component has been below 50.0 in the pessimistic territory for 45 consecutive months since September 2021.
Party Dynamics
With President Trump's election as the 47th President, Democrats' confidence tumbled from 62.9 in October to 43.2 in November. However, it increased in December to 47.6. It dropped again in January to 45.7. It further declined to 37.5 in February and 32.3 in March. In April, it increased a notch to 32.6 and posted 32.4 in May.
Meanwhile, Republican confidence surged from 34.8 in October to 64.7 in November. It held steady at 66.4 in December, dipped slightly to 63.0 in January, then rebounded to 69.0 in February and 70.9 in March. However, it edged down to 70.6 in April and declined more noticeably to 68.6 in May.
In November, independent voters' confidence jumped 8.6 points, or 20%, to 51.3, the Index’s first positive reading in nearly five years. The independents had remained in pessimistic territory for 56 consecutive months, starting in April 2020 following the pandemic’s onset. However, confidence fell to 44.1 in December and remained relatively flat in January (45.3) and February (47.0). It then dropped sharply to 43.8 in March, with the decline continuing in April (40.0) and May (39.6).
Investor Confidence
Respondents are considered "investors" if they currently have at least $10,000 invested in the stock market, either personally or jointly with a spouse, either directly or through a retirement plan. One-third (32%) of respondents met this criterion, and 62% were classified as non-investors. We were unable to determine the status of six percent of respondents.
Investor confidence rose by 1.2% (0.7 points) to 60.9, while non-investor confidence dropped by 2.0 points (4.5%) to 42.6.
Momentum
Comparing a measure's short-term average to its long-term average helps gauge its momentum. If the 3-month average exceeds the 6-month average, or the 6-month average exceeds the 12-month average, momentum is considered positive.
In May, momentum faded as the Six-Month and Personal Financial Outlook dipped below their three-month moving averages. In contrast, confidence in federal economic policies improved, rising above its three-month average, signaling a bright spot. The overall Optimism Index also declined slightly but remained near its short-term trend.
Demographic Analysis
The number of groups in the positive zone indicates the breadth of optimism in American society. This month, the number of demographic groups in the optimism zone remained unchanged from last month, at nine.
In the immediate aftermath of the election, it had jumped from eight in October to 18 in November, indicating widespread optimism.
Eight groups improved on the Index, compared to nine in April, five in March, and 11 in February.
Economic optimism levels for 15 of 21 demographic groups are lower in May 2025 than the historical average of the past 292 months––since we began tracking in February 2001.
RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index
RCM/TIPP also releases our companion index, known as the RCM/TIPP Financial-Related Stress Index, the only metric to track the financial stress felt by Americans monthly.
The higher the number, the more stress. Readings above 50 signal increased stress, while those below 50 indicate lower stress, with 50 considered neutral.
The Index climbed 3.0 points (4.7%) from 63.7 in April to 66.7 in May, reflecting increased financial stress among Americans.
For context, the last time the Index posted below 50.0 was before the onset of the pandemic in February 2020, when it stood at 48.1.
The Index has averaged 60.3 since December 2007. May’s reading of 66.7 exceeds this by 10.5%, signaling heightened financial stress relative to the long-term average.
Inflation
The survey showed that 80% are worried about inflation: 48% are very concerned, and another 32% are somewhat concerned.
Americans continue to suffer because real wages have not increased, despite the CPI rate falling from a 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 to 2.4% in March 2025.
The Federal Reserve believes that long-run inflation of 2%, measured by the annual change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is most consistent with its maximum employment and price stability mandate.
Recession
Over four-in-ten (44%) believe the United States is in a recession, while 31% think it is not. Another quarter (25%) is not sure.
Meanwhile, one-half (53%) think the U.S. economy is not improving, while 34% believe it is improving. The percentage of Americans with a positive view increased from 27% in November to 34% in May.
John Tamny, the editor of RealClearMarkets, observed:
An economy isn't a blob, it's individuals. And the fierce individualism that defines the U.S. means that the people who make it up have the energy and talent to work around the kind of barriers that might hold the typical person down. Hopefully, that explains a better than expected RCM/TIPP number, that Americans will persist and prosper no matter the economic errors foisted upon them.
Release Schedule Of RCM/TIPP Indexes For the Rest Of 2025
The RealClearMarkets website releases the report at 10 a.m. EST on the release days.
- Jun 25: Tuesday, June 3
- Jul 25: Tuesday, July 1
- Aug 25: Tuesday, August 5
- Sep 25: Tuesday, September 2
- Oct 25: Tuesday, October 7
- Nov 25: Tuesday, November 4
- Dec 25: Tuesday, December 2
TIPP Picks
Selected articles from tippinsights.com and more
1. American Manufacturers Overwhelmed With Orders After Trump’s Tariff Crackdown On China—Floyd Buford, DCNF
2. The High-School Juniors With $70,000-a-Year Job Offers—Te-Ping Chen, WSJ
3. Middle Powers In The US-China Trade War—Wing Thye Woo, Project Syndicate
4. Chinese Companies Moving To Texas, Nevada To Avoid Trump’s Tariffs—Floyd Buford, DCNF
5. Pete Hegseth’s Hard Choices: Today’s Decisions And Tomorrow’s Military—Salena Zito, The Daily Signal
6. UK Finds Its Trade Mojo As It Inks Deals From Delhi To DC—Editorial Board, TIPP Insights
7. Despite What You’ve Heard, Trump’s Budget Doesn’t ‘Slash’ Spending — It Barely Trims It—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
8. Republican Lawmakers Fiddle As Economy Starts To Burn—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
9. Defund The United Nations—Editorial Board, Issues & Insights
10. It Was Never About Hostages. It Was Never About Hamas.—Caitlin Johnstone, Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity
11. Media Spins Report On How Venezuela Facilitated Violent Gang’s Invasion of US—Jarrett Stepman, The Daily Signal
12. Trump Administration Asks For Help In Uncovering Big Tech Censorship—Jarrett Stepman, The Daily Signal
13. One Mayoral Election Could End Up Awakening A Dormant Corner Of The Left—Hudson Crozier, DCNF
14. Gov. Shapiro Silent On Women’s Sports Bill After It Passes Pennsylvania Senate With Bipartisan Support—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
15. Judge Blocks School Board From Removing Explicit Books, Saying It’s Unconstitutional To Follow ‘Conservative Values’—Tyler O'Neil, The Daily Signal
16. ‘This Is Truly Insane’: Jonathan Turley Delivers Brutal Assessment Of Letitia James’ Latest Anti-Trump Suit—Harold Hutchison, DCNF
17. Leaked Report Of US Intel Agencies Eyeing Greenland Irks Denmark—Virginia Allen, The Daily Signal
18. Inflation: Looking Beyond Aggregates—Joe Chavez, Mises Wire
19. There’s A Massive Donkey Blocking Democrats’ New Plan To Attack Trump—Mary Rooke, DCNF
20. Deep State Intel Staffers Once Again Leaking Classified Info To Stop Trump’s Agenda—Thomas English, DCNF
21. Forget Alcatraz, Mr. President. Think Nevada—Debra Saunders, The Daily Signal
22. Voters Want Balanced Budget And Low Taxes, Poll Finds—George Caldwell, The Daily Signal
23. House Panel Quizzes Bessent On DOGE, Tariff Talks, China—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
24. Get The Flock Out—Joe Thomas, The Daily Signal
25. ‘Takes Two To Tango’: Trump To Forgo Talks of Annexing Canada Unless It’s Interested—Elizabeth Troutman Mitchell, The Daily Signal
26. Trump Says He’s Directing DOJ To Work On Release Of Tina Peters—Derek Draplin, The Daily Signal
27. Arkansas To Appeal Ruling Vs. Ban On Chinese Role In Crypto Mining—Jacob Adams, The Daily Signal
28. Ben & Jerry’s Co-Founder Tells Tucker Carlson Why He Sees Pentagon As ‘Huge Demonic Sucking Tube’—Hailey Gomez, DCNF
29. Illegal Immigration Thoroughfare Left Trashed, Environmentally Damaged As Migrant Influx Subsides—Audrey Streb, DCNF
30. India And Pakistan Military Strength Compared—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
31. Trump Optimistic On China Trade Talks, Tariffs Set To Drop—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
32. Trump Hails Fair And Reciprocal Trade Deal With Britain—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
33. "Too Late" Powell Is A Fool But I Like Him Very Much: Trump—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
34. Scott Jennings Says Trump Admin Believes American Dream Shouldn’t Be Dependent On Buying ‘Cheapest Junk’ From ‘Enemy’—Jason Cohen, DCNF
35. Brit Hume Says ‘Decrepit’ Biden’s Interview With Foreign Outlet Reinforces Why Americans Wanted Trump—Mariane Angela, DCNF
36. Pope Leo XIV: Robert Prevost Makes History As First American Pontiff—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
37. Ed Martin Pulled From DC Prosecutor Pick, Trump Hints At Potential DOJ Role—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
38. Trump Taps MAHA-Favorite Doctor Casey Means To Replace Surgeon General Nominee—Robert McGreevy, DCNF
39. RFK Jr. Calls Casey Means “Born For The Job” Amid Vetting Backlash—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
40. Trump: I Don't Know Casey Means, RFK Jr. Recommended Her—TIPP Staff, TIPP Insights
TIPP Market Brief – May 9, 2025
Your Morning Snapshot
📊 Market Snapshot
- S&P 500: 5,663.94 – ▲ 0.58%
- 10-Year Yield: 4.373% – ▲ 10 basis points
- Crude Oil (WTI): $60.28 – ▲ 3.81%
- Bitcoin (BTC): $102,792.11 ▼
- US Dollar Index (USD): 100.70 – ▲ 0.05%
- Gold: $3,314.67 – ▼ 1.62%
Bigger Charts: $SPX | $TNX | $WTIC | $BTCUSD | $USD | $GOLD
📈 Featured Stock
Our pick for today’s featured stock
📰 News & Headlines
Is Sea Limited (SE) One of the Best Performing Large Cap Stocks So Far in 2025? —Talha Qureshi, Insider Monkey
Sea Limited (SE): Among The High Growth Companies Hedge Funds Are Buying—Hamna Asim, Insider Monkey
⭐Recent Featured Stocks
Philip Morris (PM) (5/8)
Comstock Resources (CRK) (5/7)
Spotify (SPOT) (5/6)
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) (5/5)
Stride, Inc. (LRN). (5/2)
NetfliX (NFLX) (5/1)
Palantir (PLTR) (4/30)
Guardant Health (GH) (4/29)
Verisign, Inc. (VRSN) (4/28)
Marex Group PLC (MRX) (4/25)
Sportradar Group, AG (SRAD) (4/24)
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) (4/23)
Kroger Company (KR) (4/22)
🧠 Macro Insight
U.S. futures are flat as investors wait for trade talks between the U.S. and China this weekend. Thursday’s trade deal with the U.K. lifted markets, even though details were limited. Nvidia (NVDA) plans to release a weaker AI chip in China to follow new U.S. export rules. Oil prices are up again, helped by easing trade tensions, but still remain near four-year lows.
📅 Key Events Today
- No events scheduled
